基于GWO-BP的震后过渡安置阶段应急物资需求预测

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.10.0131

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为精准预测地震灾区过渡性安置阶段的物资需求量,提高应急物资筹措的效率和准确性,收集我国历史地震数据信息,确定对转移安置人口数目影响较大的因素,建立基于灰狼优化算法(GWO)和反向传播(BP)神经网络的安置人口预测模型,结合人口与应急物资间的数量关系,对震后过渡性安置阶段的物资需求量进行预测。结果表明: GWO-BP神经网络模型在预测转移安置人口方面,表现出较高的准确率和稳定性,能有效预测灾区安置人口数量,进而推算出相应的物资需求量。GWO-BP神经网络模型在震后过渡安置阶段的物资需求预测方面具有一定的有效性,能为震后应急物资的筹措决策提供参考。

关键词: 灰狼优化算法(GWO), 反向传播(BP)神经网络, 地震, 过渡安置阶段, 应急物资, 需求预测

Abstract:

In order to accurately predict the material demand in the transitional resettlement stage of earthquakes and improve the efficiency and accuracy of emergency material mobilization, the factors that have a great impact on the number of resettled population were determined based on the historical seismic data in China. A prediction model of the resettled population based on GWO-BP was established, which combined with the quantitative relationship between the population and emergency supplies, to predict the material demand in the transitional resettlement stage after the earthquake. The experimental results show that the GWO-BP neural network model exhibits high accuracy and stability in predicting the number of relocated populations, and can effectively predict the number of relocated populations in disaster areas, thereby calculating the corresponding material demand. GWO-BP neural network model has a certain application value in predicting material demand in post-earthquake transitional resettlement stage, and can provide a reference for the decision-making of emergency material procurement after the earthquake.

Key words: gray wolf optimization algorithm(GWO), back propagation(BP) neural network, earthquake, transitional resettlement phase, emergency material, demand forecasting

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

詹伟, 程春鑫. 基于GWO-BP的震后过渡安置阶段应急物资需求预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(10): 17-23.

ZHAN Wei, CHENG Chunxin. GWO-BP-based forecasting of emergency material demand in post-earthquake transitional resettlement phase[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(10): 17-23.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

图3

图4

表2

图5

表3

表4

参数设定

参数	k₁	k₂	k₃	k₄	k₅	P	$θ$
数值	2 000	1.6	1.66	0.5	1	3	1

表4

表5

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序号	地点	震级	发生时间	设防烈度	破坏烈度	住房捣毁/间	预报水平	人口密度/ (人·km^-2)	受灾人口/人
1	河北唐山	7.9	2	5	7	656 136	2	11 000	2 300 000
2	云南丽江	7	1	7	8	959 000	2	11	1 075 000
3	云南宁洱	6.4	2	9	4	360 000	2	73	186 000
4	四川攀枝花	6.4	2	9	4	365 120	3	102	103 055
5	西藏拉萨	6.1	1	7	8	7 466	3	121	130 300
6	青海玉树	7.1	1	7	4	3 805	1	7	201 955
7	四川雅安	7	1	7	4	910	2	122	152 001
8	云南鲁甸	6.5	1	7	4	900	1	265	108 8400
9	新疆和田	7.3	1	7	4	13 662	1	4	455 570
10	四川宜宾	6	1	6	6	30 655	1	340	243 881
11	四川宜宾	4.5	2	6	5	90	1	344	83 000
12	西藏林芝	6.9	1	7	8	3 000	1	1	12 000
13	新疆精河	6.6	1	7	8	5 469	1	12	10 500
14	四川九寨沟	7	1	8	9	73 671	1	3 000	176 492
15	新疆阿克陶	6.7	1	7	9	571	1	7	2 546
16	西藏当雄	6.6	1	7	8	200 000	1	320	870 000
17	四川攀枝花	6.1	1	7	8	7 455	3	121	130 311
18	四川凉山	6.1	1	7	8	36 500	3	101	103 054
19	云南姚安	6.5	1	7	7	31 932	1	19	995 000
20	四川小金	6.6	1	7	9	86	1	50	120 000
21	云南澜沧	7.6	1	7	9	1 858 800	3	49	2 500 000
22	云南普洱	6.8	1	7	9	40 500	2	104	53 6000
23	四川炉霍	7.9	1	7	10	18 567	3	6	1 500 000
24	山西阳高	5.6	2	7	7	5 670	3	6 800	49 064
25	新疆伽师	6.8	1	8	7	7 880	3	11	445 660
26	云南漾濞	6.4	2	8	8	341 700	2	56	96 000
27	甘肃漳县	6.6	1	7	7	320 000	2	189	603 139

震级	发生时间	设防烈度	破坏烈度	住房捣毁	预报水平	人口密度/(人·km^-2)	受灾人口
1	1	0	0.5	0.352 959	0.5	1	0.919 918
0.735 294	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.515 902	0.5	0.000 909	0.429 419
0.558 824	1	1	0	0.193 636	0.5	0.006 546	0.073 456
0.558 824	1	1	0	0.196 391	1	0.009 183	0.040 245
0.470 588	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.003 97	1	0.010 91	0.051 154
0.764 706	0	0.5	0	0.002 001	0	0.000 546	0.079 845
0.735 294	0	0.5	0	0.000 443	0.5	0.011 001	0.059 843
0.588 235	0	0.5	0	0.000 438	0	0.024 002	0.434 784
0.823 529	0	0.5	0	0.007 304	0	0.000 273	0.181 394
0.441 176	0	0.25	0.333 333	0.016 446	0	0.030 821	0.096 632
0	1	0.25	0.166 667	0.000 215	0	0.031 185	0.032 214
0.705 882	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.001 568	0	0	0.003 785
0.617 647	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.002 896	0	0.001	0.003 185
0.735 294	0	0.75	0.833 333	0.039 589	0	0.272 661	0.069 649
0.647 059	0	0.5	0.833 333	0.000 261	0	0.000 546	0
0.617 647	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.107 555	0	0.029 003	0.347 335
0.470 588	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.003 965	1	0.010 91	0.051 158
0.470 588	0	0.5	0.666 667	0.019 591	1	0.009 092	0.040 244
0.588 235	0	0.5	0.5	0.0171 33	0	0.001 637	0.397 386
0.617 647	0	0.5	0.833 333	0	0	0.004 455	0.047 029
0.911 765	0	0.5	0.833 333	1	1	0.004 364	1
0.676 471	0	0.5	0.833 333	0.021 743	0.5	0.009 364	0.213 599
1	0	0.5	1	0.009 943	1	0.000 455	0.599 592
0.323 529	1	0.5	0.5	0.003 004	1	0.618 147	0.018 626
0.676 471	0	0.75	0.5	0.004 193	1	0.000 909	0.177 426
0.558 824	1	0.75	0.666 667	0.183 791	0.5	0.005	0.037 42
0.617 647	0	0.5	0.5	0.172 116	0.5	0.017 092	0.240 482