预警信息发布传播动力学模型仿真

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.06.0363

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 9-14.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.06.0363

预警信息发布传播动力学模型仿真

石玉恒¹(), 乔媛²^,^**(), 纪学玮¹, 吴兵祥¹, 高亚运¹, 姜江³

¹ 北京市应急管理局北京市应急管理事务中心, 北京 101117
² 北京市气象局首都关键区域气象服务保障中心, 北京 100097
³ 北京市气象局北京市气象服务中心, 北京 100097

收稿日期:2025-12-20 修回日期:2026-03-12 出版日期:2026-06-28
通信作者:
^** 乔媛(1987—),女,北京人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事气象服务方面的工作。E-mail:katherineqiao17@126.com。
作者简介:
石玉恒 (1984—),男,安徽全椒人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事应急管理与预警信息发布工作。E-mail:syh878@163.com。
纪学玮，工程师
姜江，高级工程师
基金资助:
北京自然科学基金青年项目资助(8214066)

Simulation study of societal propagation dynamics model for early-warning information dissemination

Shi Yuheng¹(), Qiao Yuan²^,^**(), Ji Xuewei¹, Wu Bingxiang¹, Gao Yayun¹, Jiang Jiang³

¹ Beijing Emergency Management Affairs Centre, Beijing Emergency Management Bureau, Beijing 101117, China
² Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Capital Key Areas Meteorological Service Support Center, Beijing 100097, China
³ Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100097, China

Received:2025-12-20 Revised:2026-03-12 Published:2026-06-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决当前预警信息传播时效性不足、覆盖度不全的问题,以预警信息发布工作为实例,基于动力系统理论,建立融合强干预机制的社会传播动力学模型;通过定量研究预警信息发布分级,揭示预警信息自发传播和强干预耦合传播机制;运用数值仿真分析初始传播者数量、再生系数等关键参数对传播效果的影响。结果表明:所构建的模型的低级别预警存在传播规模极限,而高级别预警通过强制干预可实现全员覆盖,再生系数R₀>1是信息扩散的判据。湮灭速率提高8倍可使传播时效缩短40%;预警信息传播再生系数与传播时效成反比。

关键词: 预警信息传播, 传播动力学, 再生系数, 强制干预, 仿真

Abstract:

To address insufficient timeliness and incomplete coverage in current early-warning information propagation, a dynamical model incorporating forced intervention mechanisms is developed based on dynamical systems theory, using early-warning information dissemination as a case study. This model introduces quantitative classification of warning levels, illuminating the coupling mechanisms between spontaneous diffusion and forced intervention. Numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the impact of key parameters such as the number of initial disseminators and the basic reproduction number on dissemination effectiveness. Model analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number serves as the criterion for information diffusion. Low-level early-warnings have a limited dissemination scale, while high-level early-warnings can achieve full coverage through forced intervention. Simulation results show that an eightfold increase in the annihilation rate can shorten the dissemination timeliness by 40%. The basic reproduction number is inversely proportional to dissemination timeliness.

Key words: early-warning information dissemination, dissemination dynamics, basic reproduction number, forced intervention, simulation

中图分类号:

X913.2安全信息论

石玉恒, 乔媛, 纪学玮, 吴兵祥, 高亚运, 姜江. 预警信息发布传播动力学模型仿真[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(6): 9-14.

Shi Yuheng, Qiao Yuan, Ji Xuewei, Wu Bingxiang, Gao Yayun, Jiang Jiang. Simulation study of societal propagation dynamics model for early-warning information dissemination[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(6): 9-14.

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预警信息发布传播动力学模型仿真

Simulation study of societal propagation dynamics model for early-warning information dissemination

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