社会技术系统视角下城市地铁内涝事故致因定量分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.11.2065

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效防控城市地铁内涝事故风险,提出一种将事故地图(AcciMap)模型、模糊层次分析法(FAHP)以及三角模糊决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)-解释结构模型(ISM)方法融合的事故致因系统评价模型,定量挖掘城市地铁内涝事故致因及其耦合作用关系。通过AcciMap模型从系统层面遴选事故致因;用FAHP综合专家意见,确定专家权重;利用DEMATEL方法计算事故致因重要程度,采用ISM方法揭示因素间的相互关系,构造多级阶梯有向图。并以郑州地铁的内涝事故为例,验证提出的方法。结果表明:管理部门对特大灾害认识防范不足、监督部门监察职责履行不认真、运营部门应对处置不力是事故发生的核心致因要素,应予以重点关注,防止该社会技术系统失效。

关键词: 社会技术系统, 城市地铁内涝事故, 事故致因, 定量分析, 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL), 解释结构模型(ISM)

Abstract:

To effectively prevent and control the risk of subway waterlogging accidents, a quantitative analysis method integrating the AcciMap model, FAHP, and triangular fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM method was proposed to investigate the causes of urban subway waterlogging accidents and their coupling associations. Accident causation factors were selected from the system level through AcciMap model. FAHP was used to integrate expert opinions and determine expert weights. The DEMATEL method was used to calculate the importance of accident causes, ISM method was used to reveal the relationship between factors, and a multi-level ladder stepwise graph was constructed. The model was validated by waterlogging accidents on the Zhengzhou subway. The results showed that the core contributing factors leading to the incident were inadequate awareness and prevention measures of major disasters by the management department, the lack of diligence in supervision and inspection duties by regulatory authorities, and ineffective response and handling by operational departments. These factors can be paid special attention to prevent system failures.

Key words: complex socio-technical systems, urban subway waterlogging accidents, accident causes, quantitative analysis, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling (ISM)

中图分类号:

X951交通运输安全

邢金朵, 杨威, 张军. 社会技术系统视角下城市地铁内涝事故致因定量分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(11): 193-201.

XING Jinduo, YANG Wei, ZHANG Jun. Quantitative analysis of accident causes of urban subway waterlogging from perspective of complex socio-technical systems[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(11): 193-201.

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一级指标	二级指标	说明
政府	灾害风险意识不强S₁ 应急行为不当,存在失职渎职S₂	城市主要负责人缺乏风险意识; 城市主要负责人对防汛工作缺少分析研判、动员部署等行动
监管机构与协会	职责履行不认真,监督审查不到位S₃	城市应急管理部门未及时向社会发布通知; 城市城乡建设、交通运输部门未有效督促有关单位对城市内涝积水点进行整治;城市管理部门未明确地铁集团运营防汛工作职责
相关企业管理	设计、建设及验收环节存在问题S₄ 防灾减灾气象保障水平不足S₅	相关企业在五龙口停车场及附近围墙在设计、施工、检验存在违规行为; 气象部门存在气象监测预报能力不足、预警响应联动机制不健全等突出问题
技术和运营管理	集团层面未编制防汛专项应急预案S₆ 运营应对处置不当S₇ 运营线路淹水倒灌隐患排查不到位S₈	地铁集团未及时发布线网停运指令,线路淹水隐患排查不到位; 运行控制中心主任调度员行车调度失误; 应急信息报送不规范不及时
事故进程与人员活动	停车场挡水围墙被冲毁S₉ 涝水灌入地铁隧道S₁₀ 指令列车放行、退行S₁₁ 列车迫停、乘客被困、疏散中断S₁₂	设备与环境	暴雨S₁₃ 地铁口附近挡水、排涝设施存在问题S₁₄ 列车所在位置标高较低S₁₅ 地铁口处地处低洼S₁₆ 地铁车站区间排水设备排洪能力不足S₁₇

专家得分	专家1	专家2	专家3
工作绩效	8	8	6
工作年限	5	5	3
教育水平	10	10	8
专业	8	8	8
声誉	10	10	8

权重	专家1	专家2	专家3
工作绩效	0.195 1	0.195 1	0.181 8
工作年限	0.122 0	0.122 0	0.090 9
教育水平	0.243 9	0.243 9	0.242 4
专业	0.195 1	0.195 1	0.242 4
声誉	0.243 9	0.243 9	0.242 4

专家	工作绩效	工作年限	教育水平	专业	声誉	综合权重
1	0.402 8	0.415 9	0.398 6	0.333 3	0.398 6	0.388 8
2	0.402 8	0.415 9	0.398 6	0.333 3	0.398 6	0.388 8
3	0.194 4	0.168 2	0.202 8	0.333 3	0.202 8	0.229 7