基于文本挖掘的水电工程施工物体打击事故致因分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1452

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探明水电工程施工过程中物体打击事故的致因及作用关系,提出针对性的事故预防措施,从源头遏制事故发生。遴选水电工程施工物体打击事故调查报告,运用文本挖掘从人、机、环、管4个方面提取14项事故致因。融合关联规则、决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法,厘清致因因素间的关联关系,构建重要度分析模型,确定事故近端致因因素。结果表明:水电工程物体打击事故各致因间联系紧密,其中,安全监督检查不到位、违章作业、安全防护措施不完备、安全意识淡薄等致因因素对事故发生具有直接影响作用。现场清理不彻底、安全技术交底不到位、安全教育培训不到位等是诱发事故的深层影响因素,且安全意识淡薄的中心度排名第一,对事故致因系统的影响较大,在实际施工中应着重考虑上述致因因素。

关键词: 文本挖掘, 水电工程, 物体打击, 事故致因, 关联规则, 决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法

Abstract:

To clarify the accident causes and their association rules of strike accidents in hydropower project construction, specific accident prevention strategies were proposed to curb accidents at source. Based the selected object strike accidents during hydropower construction process, 14 accident causal parameters were summarized using text mining from four perspectives including worker, machine, environment and management. Moreover, an importance analysis model was proposed by coupling association rules and the DEMATEL approach to analyze the interrelated relationship between causes and determine major accident causes. The results showed that the accident causes of object strikes in hydropower projects were closely related to each other, among which inadequate safety supervision and inspection, illegal operations, insufficient safety protection, and weak safety awareness directly affected the accident's occurrence. Furthermore, the deeper causing factors of accidents were incomplete on-site cleaning, insufficient disclosure of safety technology, and inadequate safety education. Weak safety awareness ranked first in terms of centrality and had the greatest influence on the accident causation system, thereby the above causative factors should be emphasized in project construction.

Key words: text mining, hydropower project construction, object strike, accident causes, association rules, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) approach

中图分类号:

X928.02事故处理

郑霞忠, 刘奕成, 邵波, 王硕, 柯善钢. 基于文本挖掘的水电工程施工物体打击事故致因分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(4): 50-57.

ZHENG Xiazhong, LIU Yicheng, SHAO Bo, WANG Shuo, KE Shan'gang. Accident causal analysis of object strike in hydropower project construction based on text mining[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(4): 50-57.

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主题	特征词
1	现场、管理、事故、落实、责任、履行、职责、督促、规章制度
2	防范、措施、流于形式、未能、支架、扣件、支护、横撑、溜槽、承台
3	作业、人员、违章、操作、违反、规程、吊装、吊柱、放置、钢管、挖掘机
4	现场、爆破、岩块、围岩、块石、施工、危石、裂隙、隐患、电杆、缺位、节理
5	事故隐患、滑坡、重视、及时、发现、井沟、涉事、盖板、消除、施工
6	作业、交叉、现场、拖吊、拉线、挂钩、矩管、发生、风道、分包
7	玄武岩、岩类、致密、坚硬、倾角、斑状、岩石、导致、扰动、混凝土、事故
8	安全意识、盲目、缺乏、提升、坠落、放松、拆除、致使、人员、施工
9	交底、技术、操作、规程、细则、断裂、严格、执行、制定、监理
10	维护、保养、年限、较长、断裂、冲击、磨损、长时间、联结、螺栓、料斗、托轮
11	检查、安全、焊接、隐患、人员、牢固、固定、排查、整治、冒险
12	教育、培训、意识、擅自、指挥、过程、规定、现场、到位、监理
13	经验、人员、安全、意识、脱落、缺乏、失误、落实、导致、施工、发生
14	清理、岩石、到位、部位、现场、围岩、异常、施工、导致、钻孔

代码	致因因素	代码	致因因素
C₁	现场管理失职	C₈	安全意识淡薄
C₂	安全防护措施不完备	C₉	安全技术交底不到位
C₃	违章作业	C₁₀	维护保养不到位
C₄	作业环境不佳	C₁₁	安全监督检查不到位
C₅	隐患排查治理不力	C₁₂	安全教育培训不到位
C₆	交叉作业	C₁₃	施工经验不足
C₇	地质条件不良	C₁₄	现场清理不彻底

后项	前项	支持度	置信度	作用度
C₁₁	C₂, C₁₂	0.111	0.833	1.875
C₈	C₁₁,C₁₃	0.111	0.833	1.364
C₈	C₁₄	0.102	0.818	1.339
C₈	C₇,C₁₃	0.102	0.818	1.339
C₈	C₁,C₁₃	0.102	0.818	1.339
C₈	C₂,C₁₃	0.194	0.81	1.325

致因因素	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	C₅	C₆	C₇	C₈	C₁₁	C₁₂	C₁₃
C₁	0.00	0.47	0.62	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.62	0.59	0.44	0.00
C₂	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.54	0.00	0.42
C₃	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60	0.54	0.00	0.40
C₄	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00
C₅	0.00	0.44	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.58	0.53	0.00	0.00
C₆	0.00	0.61	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61	0.56	0.00	0.44
C₇	0.00	0.46	0.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.46
C₈	0.00	0.47	0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.47
C₉	0.50	0.50	0.71	0.00	0.57	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.71	0.64	0.00
C₁₀	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
C₁₁	0.42	0.56	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00
C₁₂	0.52	0.41	0.59	0.00	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.48	0.62	0.00	0.00
C₁₃	0.00	0.51	0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00
C₁₄	0.00	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	0.45	0.00	0.55

C_i	V	Y	U	J	q	b
C₁	1.571	1.012	2.583	0.558	5	原因
C₂	0.830	2.873	3.702	-2.041	3	结果
C₃	1.145	2.664	3.809	-1.519	2	结果
C₄	0.548	0.163	0.711	0.386	13	原因
C₅	0.950	0.608	1.558	0.342	10	原因
C₆	1.281	0.581	1.862	0.700	9	原因
C₇	0.910	0.158	1.068	0.753	12	原因
C₈	0.866	3.028	3.894	-2.162	1	结果
C₉	2.147	0.000	2.147	2.147	6	原因
C₁₀	0.458	0.000	0.458	0.458	14	原因
C₁₁	1.064	2.580	3.644	-1.516	4	结果
C₁₂	1.551	0.369	1.920	1.182	8	原因
C₁₃	0.834	1.244	2.078	-0.410	7	结果
C₁₄	1.123	0.000	1.123	1.123	11	原因