中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 17-22.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.08.003

• 安全系统学 • 上一篇    下一篇

模糊痕迹安全决策模型及其应用研究

朱宝岩 教授, 李柏冬, 刘玉姣, 杨昆   

  1. 辽宁工程技术大学 安全科学与工程学院,辽宁 葫芦岛 125105
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-02 修回日期:2019-06-10 发布日期:2020-10-21
  • 作者简介:朱宝岩 (1963—),男,辽宁建昌人,博士,教授,主要从事风险预控、安全行为、职业健康安全管理体系、安全与应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:baoyan.zhu@163.com。李柏冬 (1993—),男,辽宁鞍山人,硕士研究生,研究方向为安全行为管理、管理与决策、风险分析。E-mail:949421945@qq.com。

Research on fuzzy trace safety decision model and its application

ZHU Baoyan, LI Baidong, LIU Yujiao, YANG Kun   

  1. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125105, China
  • Received:2019-04-02 Revised:2019-06-10 Published:2020-10-21

摘要: 为提高不安全行为预防控制的有效性,首先基于模糊痕迹理论,从新的视角研究个体不安全行为发生机制;其次提出模糊要义空间、本真安全空间、安全效价空间、安全风险空间、安全决策可靠度等概念,并建立模糊痕迹安全决策模型(FTSDM);然后根据模型定性描述和分析不安全行为发生机制,并据此建立安全决策数学模型,定量分析安全决策的可靠程度;最后通过简单的实例分析,说明FTSDM的应用方式。结果表明:通过FTSDM,可从新角度解释不安全行为发生的本质,并从提升个体认知本真安全空间能力方面控制不安全行为;通过升维分析,提高要义提取的特征概念与客观事实的吻合程度,避免直接用要义加工的方式进行决策。

关键词: 不安全行为, 发生机制, 模糊痕迹安全决策模型(FTSDM), 安全空间, 决策可靠度

Abstract: In order to improve the effectiveness of prevention and control of unsafe behaviors, firstly, the mechanism of individual unsafe behaviors was studied from a new perspective based on fuzzy trace theory. Secondly, concepts of fuzzy gist space, real safety space, safety valence space, safety risk space and safety decision reliability were put forward, and FTSDM was established, based on which the mechanism of unsafe behavior was described and analyzed qualitatively. Furthermore, a mathematical model of safety decision was established as well, and safety decision reliability was studied quantitatively with it. Eventually the application of FTSDM was demonstrated through simple case studies. The conclusion is that FTSDM can explain the nature of unsafe behaviors from a new perspective and control the unsafe behaviors by improving individuals' ability to recognize real safety space, and the degree of agreement between the feature concept of extracted gist and objective facts is improved through ascending dimension analysis, thus avoiding making decision directly from gist processing.

Key words: unsafe behavior, mechanism, fuzzy trace safety decision model (FTSDM), safety space, decision reliability

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