中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 85-90.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.015

• 安全工程技术科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于EW-SPA的装配式建筑施工安全评价及预测

冯亚娟1 副教授, 都思竹1, 张竞一2   

  1. 1 辽宁工程技术大学 工商管理学院,辽宁 葫芦岛 125105;
    2 葫芦岛市不动产测量有限公司,辽宁 葫芦岛 125105
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-24 修回日期:2019-03-12 发布日期:2020-11-02
  • 作者简介:冯亚娟(1963—),女,辽宁阜新人,硕士,副教授,主要从事项目管理、建筑工程经济、建筑工程风险等方面的研究。都思竹(1994—),女,辽宁葫芦岛人,硕士研究生,研究方向为项目管理、建筑产业化、建筑工程风险。E-mail:416125783@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(51404125);辽宁省社科规划基金项目一般项目(L18BGL020)。

Safety evaluation and prediction of prefabricated building construction based on EW-SPA

FENG Yajuan1, DU Sizhu1, ZHANG Jingyi2   

  1. 1 School of Business Administration,Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125105, China;
    2 Real Estate Measurement Co., Ltd.of Huludao, Huludao Liaoning 125105, China
  • Received:2019-01-24 Revised:2019-03-12 Published:2020-11-02

摘要: 针对装配式建筑施工过程的复杂性,联合应用熵权(EW)法和集对分析(SPA)法,构建基于EW-SPA的装配式建筑施工安全评价模型。首先,在识别风险因素的基础上,结合4M1E原理建立装配式建筑施工安全评价指标体系;其次,利用EW法确定指标权重,运用SPA法评价和预测装配式建筑施工安全状况;最后,以实际工程项目为例,确定该项目施工安全等级和发展态势。结果表明:该工程项目的安全等级为安全,总体态势向非常安全的方向发展;与其他装配式建筑安全评价方法相比,该模型克服了处理不确定性问题的不足,实用性较强,评价结果更加客观、准确。

关键词: 装配式建筑, 熵权(EW), 集对分析(SPA), 五元联系数, 安全评价及预测

Abstract: In light of the complexity of the prefabricated building construction process, EW method and SPA method are combined to develop a safety evaluation model for the prefabricated building construction. Firstly, a construction safety evaluation index system was established in accordance with the 4M1E principle after identifying risk factors. Then, the EW method was used to determine the index weight and the SPA method was used to evaluate and predict the safety status of the prefabricated building construction. Finally, with the actual project as an example, the construction safety level and development trends of the project were determined. The results show that the safety level of the project is safe which is developing generally toward the category of being very safe, and the model, compared with other fabricated building safety evaluation methods, demonstrates strong practicability and more objective and accurate evaluation results by overcoming the uncertainties.

Key words: prefabricated buildings, entropy weight(EW), set pair analysis(SPA), five-element connection number, safety evaluation and prediction

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