海洋钻井平台井喷火灾概率动态预测研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.02.011

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 64-68.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.02.011

海洋钻井平台井喷火灾概率动态预测研究

王彦富副教授, 李彪, 秦桃, 张彪

中国石油大学(华东) 机电工程学院,山东青岛 266580

收稿日期:2017-10-21 修回日期:2017-12-23 出版日期:2018-02-28 发布日期:2020-11-17
作者简介:王彦富 (1981—),女,山东威海人,博士,副教授,主要从事海洋平台火灾爆炸风险评估、隧道火灾研究和事故连锁效应的风险定量分析。E-mail: wangyanfu@ upc.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51409260);自主创新科研计划项目(17CX02062)。

Research on dynamic prediction of probability of offshore drilling platform blowout fire

WANG Yanfu, LI Biao, QIN Tao, ZHANG Biao

School of Mechanical Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China

Received:2017-10-21 Revised:2017-12-23 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2020-11-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为动态预测海洋钻井平台井喷火灾概率随时间变化过程,首先运用安全屏障模型分析导致井喷火灾事故的主要因素;然后利用系统动力学(SD)仿真软件 Vensim建立井喷火灾事故概率预测模型,分析井喷火灾概率随时间的变化趋势;并基于历史数据和仿真模拟数据进行非线性拟合,得到概率预测公式。结果表明:海洋钻井平台井喷火灾发生概率与时间成指数函数关系,在4年时间内,井喷火灾概率从2.41×10^-6逐渐增大到3.997×10^-6,所推导的概率预测公式预测精度高,适用于实际工作中对井喷火灾发生概率的预测。

关键词: 海洋钻井平台, 井喷火灾, 概率预测, 系统动力学(SD), 安全屏障

Abstract: To predict the dynamic probability of blowout fire on offshore drilling platform,the main factors influencing blowout fire accident were identified using the safety barrier model. Then, a dynamic probability prediction model was built for blowout fire by integrating the relevant principles of SD. The simulation software Vensim was used to simulate the overall process of blowout fire accident, and a dynamic probability prediction formula was deduced for blowout fire by fitting the historical data and simulation data. The results show that there is a exponential functional relation between the probability of blowout fire and time, and a duration of 4 years will make the probability of blowout fire increase from 2.41×10^-6 to 3.997×10^-6,and that the deduced equation can be used to predict the dynamic probability of blowout fire accident on offshore drilling platform .

Key words: offshore drilling platform, blowout fire, probability prediction, system dynamics(SD), safety barrier

中图分类号:

X937

王彦富, 李彪, 秦桃, 张彪. 海洋钻井平台井喷火灾概率动态预测研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(2): 64-68.

WANG Yanfu, LI Biao, QIN Tao, ZHANG Biao. Research on dynamic prediction of probability of offshore drilling platform blowout fire[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(2): 64-68.

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海洋钻井平台井喷火灾概率动态预测研究

Research on dynamic prediction of probability of offshore drilling platform blowout fire

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