Abstract: In order to improve the safety management level of railway express, based on the design of logic structure and function module of railway express cargo safety warning system, influencing factors of railway express cargo safety were analyzed, level of personnel, goods attributes and external conditions of three aspects of early warning indicators were determined, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and expert evaluation method were used to determine the weight of each index, and a railway express cargo safety warning model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was constructed, qualitative description was transformed into quantitative evaluation, and the early warning level of railway express cargo was calculated.The research shows that by effective means, safety of railway express cargo can be evaluated by quantitative indexes that affect the safety factors of railway express cargo. By quantifying the influence of safety factors, it can provide necessary reference for managers to take corresponding safety measures.

Key words: railway express, safety of goods, early warning system, safety management, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation