Review and prospect of counterfactual simulation for road traffic safety

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.07.2643

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to clarify the development of counterfactual simulation and further promote application of counterfactual simulation technology, five stages of counterfactual simulation were sorted out, the differences between accident scenarios and natural driving scenarios were compared, the shortcomings of simulation models in the aspects of drivers' avoidance behavior, road conditions, accident damage and accident risk combination were discussed, and the simulation process and technical key points of evaluation indicators were summarized and compared based on the basic principle of counterfactual simulation. In addition, the development trend of counterfactual simulation technology was summarized based on the analysis of its applicability. The results show that the uncertainty of drivers limits the application field of counterfactual simulation and this technology is more suitable for evaluation and analysis of traffic safety during collision and hedging stages currently.

Key words: traffic safety, counterfactual simulation, safety assessment, simulation model, applicability

ZHU Tong, WEI Wen, LIN Miao, ZHANG Jie, LIU Xiaolong, WEI Tianzheng. Review and prospect of counterfactual simulation for road traffic safety[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(7): 128-135.

Figures/Tables 2

References 41

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