Evaluation of air traffic control risk situation based ongame theory and set pair analysis

doi:11.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.023

Abstract

Abstract: In order to effectively evaluate the operational risk in air traffic management, the determinants and uncertainties of the evaluation system were treated integrally and a risk assessment model based on SPA of game theory was built. First, according to the method of system engineering, 18 risk assessment indexes of the underlying operation were identified. Then the subjective weights of the indexes were determined by analytic hierarchy process(AHP), and their objective weights were calculated by entropy weight method, and then the comprehensive weights of the indexes were obtained by game theory comprehensive weight method. According to the model, the set pair potential analysis results of the indexes were calculated, and the risk situation of the system was judged. Then the dynamic development trend of the risk was obtained by calculating the partial connection number of each order of the connection number. The simulation results show that the proposed set pair analysis model is effective at assessing the air traffic control risk and analyzing the trend in development of air traffic management.

Key words: air traffic control, game theory, set pair analysis(SPA), risk situation assessment, dynamic analysis

CLC Number:

X949

WAN Junqiang, ZHANG Min. Evaluation of air traffic control risk situation based ongame theory and set pair analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(11): 142-148.

References

[1] 中国民用航空总局安全办公室.中国民航安全信息统计分析报告[R],2015.
[2] TERNOV S,AKSELSSON R. A method DEB analysis for proactive risk analysis applied to air traffic control[J]. Safety Science,2004,42(7): 657-673.
[3] 王龙. 面向扇区的空管运行亚健康状态诊断方法研究[D]. 天津:中国民航大学, 2017.
WANG Long. Study on the diagnostic methods of air traffic control operation sub-health status for sector[D]. Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China, 2017.
[4] 王洁宁,杨海滨.面向空管安全系统中人为因素的本体建模分析[J].中国民航大学学报,2009,27(4): 33-36.
WANG Jiening, YANG Haibin. Ontology model of human factors in air traffic control security system [J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China, 2009,27 (4): 33-36.
[5] 王永刚,董保健. 管制员人为差错影响因素及指标权重分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(2): 28-33.
WANG Yonggang, DONG Baojian. Analysis of human error influence factors and evaluation indexes weights determination for air traffic controller[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2011,7(2): 28-33.
[6] 张建平, 胡明华, 刘卫东. 终端区空中交通管制运行品质综合评价[J]. 西南交通大学学报, 2012, 47(2): 341-347.
ZHANG Jianping, HU Minghua, LIU Weidong.Integrated evaluation for operation performance of air traffic control in terminal area[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2012,47(2): 341-347.
[7] 张一瑫, 吴诗辉, 刘晓东,等. 基于集对分析和马尔科夫链的航空维修安全动态评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2016, 26(1): 122-128.
ZHANG Yitao, WU Shihui, LIU Xiaodong, et al. Dynamic evaluation of aviation maintenance safety based on set pair analysis and Markov chain[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2016, 26(1): 122-128.
[8] ZOU Qiang,ZHOU Jianzhong,ZHOU Chao,et al.Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J].Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment,2013,27(2): 525-546.
[9] WANG Tao,CHEN Jiansheng,WANG Ting,et al.Entropy weight-set pair analysis based on tracer techniques for dam leakage investigation[J].Natural Hazards, 2015, 76 (2): 747-767.
[10] YUE Wencong, CAI Yanpeng, RONG Qiangqiang,et al.A hybrid life-cycle and fuzzy-set-pair analyses approach for comprehensively evaluating impacts of industrial wastewater under uncertainty[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014, 80 (7): 57-68.
[11] 赵嶷飞, 万俊强. 五元联系数-熵权法的航空公司风险评价[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2018,18(5): 847-852.
ZHAO Yifei,WAN Junqiang. Evaluation of airline risk based on five element connection number- entropy weight method[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2018,18(5): 847-852.
[12] 刘国颂, 綦春明, 聂春龙,等. 基于博弈论组合赋权的边坡稳定性集对分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2014, 31(6): 83-88.
LIU Guosong, QI Chunming, NIE Chunlong, et al. Set pair analysis of slope stability evaluation based on combination weighting game theory[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2014, 31(6): 83-88.
[13] 陈南祥, 杨淇翔. 基于博弈论组合赋权的流域水资源承载力集对分析[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2013, 32(2): 81-85.
CHEN Nanxiang, YANG Qixiang. Set pair analysis of watershed water resources carrying capacity based on game theory combination weighting[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2013, 32(2): 81-85.
[14] 吴婷.五元联系数在学生成绩发展趋势分析中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(5): 53-59.
WU Ting.Application on the analysis of the students mark with five-element partial connection number[J].Mathematical in Practice and Theory,2009,39(5): 53-59.
[15] International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO). Safety management manual[M].New York:The UN Secretariat,2006: 2-7.
[16] 邓雪, 李家铭, 曾浩健,等. 层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2012, 42(7): 93-100.
DENG Xue, LI Jiaming, ZENG Haojian, et al. Research on computation methods of AHP weight vector and its application[J]. Mathematical in Practice and Theory,2012, 42(7): 93-100.
[17] 吴晓涛, 张永领, 吴丽萍. 基于改进熵权TOPSIS的应急物资生产能力储备企业选择[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2011, 11(3): 213-217.
WU Xiaotao, ZHANG Yongling, WU Liping. Research on selecting emergency material production capacity storage firms based on the ameliorated entropy weights TOPSIS[J].Journal of Safety and Environment, 2011, 11(3): 213-217.
[18] XU Jia,FENG Ping,YANG Peng.Research of development strategy on China's rural drinking water supply based on SWOT-TOPSIS method combined with AHP-entropy: a case in Hebei province[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(1): 1 -11.
[19] 李贞, 崔丽艳, 陶颍军,等. 基于博弈论赋权的光伏功率组合预测模型[J]. 电气技术, 2017, 18(5): 24-29.
LI Zhen, CUI Liyan, TAO Yingjun, et al. The combined model for PV power forecasting based on combination weighting approach of game theory[J]. Electrical Engineering,2017, 18(5): 24-29.
[20] 苏观南, 付修庆, 刘天祥. 改进的博弈论综合权重在大坝安全综合评价中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电, 2014(11): 82-85.
SU Guannan, FU Xiuqing, LIU Tianxiang. Improved comprehensive weight calculated with game theory and its application in dam safety synthetic appraisal[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower,2014(11): 82-85.
[21] 王国平,杨洁,王洪光.五元联系数在地表水环境质量评价中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(6): 21-24.
WANG Guoping,YANG Jie,WANG Hongguang.Application of five-element connection number to the quality assessment of the surface water environment[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(6): 21-24.