Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.020

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore transmission mode between typical disasters and influence of key nodes on subway risk prevention and control, theories of disaster chain and complex network were adopted to evaluate vulnerability of key nodes and edges of complex network. Firstly, typical disaster events of urban rail transit were obtained by analyzing 156 major subway accidents at home and abroad. Then, an evolution model of disaster chain in subway complex system was established by using inductive analysis method and disaster chain transfer theory. Finally, importance of network nodes were analyzed by degree centrality, node subnet number, proximity centrality and intermediate centrality, and edge vulnerability was evaluated through analyzing number of edge interfaces, connectivity degree and average path length. First-level important nodes and edges of subway disaster development were obtained, and two important routes of disaster transmission were determined. The results show that all kinds of disasters in urban rail transit are closely connected and highly linked, and elimination of subway mechanical equipment failures, power supply system failures and tunnel structural performance deterioration can improve safety of complex systems by 40%, 26% and 12%, respectively.

Key words: complex network, metro disaster chain, evolutionary model, risk assessment, vulnerability, node importance

CLC Number:

X951

LI Haoran, WANG Ziheng, YANG Qifan, ZHANG Yajun, OUYANG Zuolin. Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(11): 141-147.

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