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    28 December 2025, Volume 35 Issue 12
    Safety social science and safety management
    A review of technology development of large language model and knowledge graph in field of construction safety
    ZHAO Rongyong, PENG Xingzhu, WEI Bingyu, ZENG Guoyi, LIU Fengnian, YAN Peng
    2025, 35(12):  1-7.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0044
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    In order to clarify the potential research value and application prospects of LLMs and KG technologies in the field of construction safety, the existing problems in the knowledge-driven digital transformation of this domain were comprehensively analyzed, and the current state of technological development regarding knowledge graphs and large language models within it was reviewed. First, relevant literature was retrieved from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science(WoS) databases to define the scope of analysis. Then, the existing problems and challenges in the digital transformation of construction safety were analyzed, and the necessity of introducing KG and LLM was elaborated. Subsequently, the technological development of KG and LLM, along with the current status of their application research in construction safety, was briefly described. Preliminary achievements in the integrated application of KG and LLM within the construction safety domain were explored. Finally, the shortcomings of existing research were summarized, and future research directions are outlined. The results indicate that LLMs and KG technologies have demonstrated significant application potential in various scenarios within construction safety, including knowledge management, risk identification, and intelligent decision-making, highlighting considerable prospects for future implementation. However, current research still faces challenges such as a lack of real-time capabilities and insufficient integration. Future efforts should focus on establishing comprehensive and precise construction safety KG and exploring novel approaches for the integrated application of LLM and KG.

    Study on work safety job shop scheduling considering worker boredom perception
    GUO Chen, WU Chengsen, LI Xianyue
    2025, 35(12):  8-17.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1724
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    To achieve safe and efficient work in job shops, this paper proposed a BP-DRFJSP model that considers workers' boredom perception. First, the impact of boredom arising from repetitive tasks on work efficiency and work safety accident risks was analyzed. A mathematical model was developed to quantify this impact, and a scheduling model was established with the optimization objectives of minimizing makespan and production safety risks. Then, a MO-FTTA was designed to solve the model. Finally, comparative experiments and a case study involving MO-FTTA and three other common algorithms were conducted to verify the performance and feasibility of the proposed approach. The results show that when solving BP-DRFJSP model, MO-FTTA achieves better hypervolume (HV) and inverted generational distance (IGD) in 95% of the test instances, with C-metric values close to 1. Moreover, it yields superior objective function values in 90% of the instances compared to other algorithms. In the case study, MO-FTTA reduces the makespan to 79.635 minutes and lowers work safety risk by 1.25%, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing production efficiency while mitigating safety risks, thereby supporting safe and efficient workshop operations.

    Safety engineering technology
    Smoke simulation in aircraft cargo compartments based on model-free adaptive control
    YANG Jianzhong, WANG Pengxiang, CHEN Xiyuan
    2025, 35(12):  18-25.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0081
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    To control the simulated smoke flow field (used as a substitute for real fire smoke in the airworthiness verification experiments for aircraft cargo compartment smoke detection), this paper established a closed-loop flow control experimental platform for simulated smoke based on a full-scale aircraft cargo compartment mock-up. Control law design was conducted using MFAC theory. The closed-loop flow control effects of simulated smoke were verified with real fire smoke mass concentration as the control target. Additionally, the influence of control law parameters on control effect was explored. The experimental results demonstrate that MFAC method can effectively overcome the adverse effects of unmodeled dynamics in turbulent flow fields on closed-loop control, and achieve the approximation of the non-stationary flow fields between simulated smoke and real fire smoke. Compared with the PID control method, the control performance can be improved by more than 20%.

    Study on effect of heating rate on heat release of coal-oxygen composite process of non-coking coal
    MA Li, FENG Jinbo, ZHAO Qingshan, ZHANG Decan, LU Yu, LOU Fang
    2025, 35(12):  26-35.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1812
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    Non-caking coal was often used as gasification and power generation coal, and the heat generation was low due to the coal formation stage, and the heating rate had a greater influence on the heat release of coal-oxygen composite at different stages. The heat release process of Non-caking coal at different heating rates (10, 20, 30, 40 ℃/min) up to 1 000 ℃ was tested by synchronous thermal analyzer, and the changes of heat release and ignition heat in the coal-oxygen composite process were analyzed. The apparent activation energy was solved by the Starink method, and the effect of apparent activation energy on the heat release was clarified. The coal-oxygen composite stage with the greatest influence of heating rate was analyzed by the gray correlation method. The gray correlation method was used to analyze the coal-oxygen composite stage that was most affected by the heating rate. The results show that the heat flow changes of Non-caking coal can be divided into five stages: evaporation heat absorption, oxidation exothermic, decomposition heat storage, combustion exothermic and combustion exhaustion. With the increase of heating rate, the heat flow density gradually shifts to the high temperature area and the energy redistribution phenomenon occurs, and the heat release per unit mass of Non-caking coal increases by 19.2%. The percentage of exothermic heat in the exothermic stage of combustion increases from 70.6% to 75.1%, and the heat of ignition is 360~380 J/g. The apparent activation energy decreases gradually from 0 to 0.90, and increased abruptly at 0.95, with a peak value of 143.44 kJ/mol. The exothermic stage of combustion and exhaustion stage were most affected by the warming rate, and the evaporation and heat absorption stage was least affected by the warming rate.

    Numerical simulation and response characteristics of transient electromagnetic fields in heterogeneous strata of subway tunnels
    LIANG Qinghua, LIU Enjie, CHEN Suzhen, WANG Weina, WANG Chunyuan
    2025, 35(12):  36-43.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0317
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    To address the safety risks and geological hazards encountered during urban subway shield tunneling in soft-hard uneven strata, the applicability and identification characteristics of the surface transient electromagnetic method for advanced detection in such formations were investigated. Taking a metro section in Qingdao as an example, and considering the generally shallow burial depth of urban subways (typically 30-50 m), a numerical model of upper-soft and lower-hard strata was established using COMSOL finite element software. Through simulation of the transient electromagnetic response process, electric field response results and anomalous characteristics at different measurement points were obtained. Combined with field-measured data, the numerical simulation results were compared and validated, and the criteria for identifying soft-hard uneven anomalies in the strata were summarized. The results indicate that soft-hard uneven strata induce significant variations in the electric field response. The response curve at the measurement point directly above the anomalous body exhibits the most drastic changes and the fastest decay rate, demonstrating that the surface transient electromagnetic method can be utilized to identify anomalies in soft-hard uneven strata. The rate of electric field attenuation is jointly influenced by the properties of the medium and the distance from the anomalous zone, manifesting as a "trough phenomenon", with faster attenuation near the anomaly and slower attenuation farther away. In the apparent resistivity contour maps, the tunnel-crossing areas exhibit intense small-scale contour fluctuations, with soft rock showing low-resistivity anomalies and hard rock showing high-resistivity anomalies. Resistivity often transitions from low to high or from high to low, reflecting the heterogeneous characteristics of the strata.

    Improved dung beetle optimizer algorithm for solving aircraft rerouting route planning under thunderstorm conditions
    WEI Ming, GAO Anming, ZHANG Xiaoxiao
    2025, 35(12):  44-52.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0263
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    To enhance the safety and on-time performance of flight rerouting under thunderstorm conditions, the airspace was first discretized into grids. Considering meteorological avoidance zones, aircraft performance, and fuel consumption, an ARRPTC model incorporating multiple safety factors was established based on the aircraft's origin, destination, and departure time. The model determined both the aircraft's airborne holding time at the departure point and its optimal rerouting path, with the objective of minimizing the total flight time. Subsequently, a multi-strategy improved DBO (MSDBO) was designed according to the problem characteristics to improve convergence speed and accuracy while avoiding premature convergence of the algorithm. The performance of the proposed MSDBO was then compared with four other swarm intelligence algorithms by means of six benchmark test functions to verify the effectiveness of the improvement strategies. Finally, a case study based on an actual aircraft rerouting scenario under thunderstorm conditions was conducted. The results indicate that, compared with traditional models, the proposed ARRPTC model reduces the detour time and distance by 52.3% and 53.0%, respectively, while the total flight time and distance decrease by 16.5% and 14.3%, and fuel consumption is reduced by 13.6%. Compared with the other four swarm intelligence algorithms, MSDBO demonstrates faster convergence, stronger global exploration, and superior local exploitation capabilities. In the ARRPTC model, MSDBO can obtain more optimal flight trajectories, significantly improving the efficiency of flight rerouting. Furthermore, as the thunderstorm safety threshold and turbulence coefficient threshold decrease, the total rerouting distance tends to increase.

    Study on causation of contact accidents and its prevention and control measures for autonomous ships
    FU Shanshan, WU Ningji, CAI Dujie, FAN Cunlong, HAN Bing
    2025, 35(12):  53-63.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1201
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    In order to ensure the safe operation of autonomous ships, it is necessary to deeply analyze the risk factors of contact accidents and formulate targeted safety prevention and control strategies. Based on the contact accident investigation reports and international literature on autonomous ships, this paper adopts systems theoretic process analysis, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method and the fuzzy cognitive map model to analyze the risk causes of contact accidents for autonomous ships from multiple perspectives, and assess the risk level of two typical accident scenarios, namely, berthing/unberthing in port waters and navigating through bridge areas, and base on this, propose corresponding prevention and control measures. The results show that during the port waters, autonomous ships face ten types of key risks such as inaccurate perception and interrupted information transmission and during the bridge areas, there are nine types of key risks such as perceptual blindness and decision-making errors. And insufficient communication and collaboration, significant wind/current interference and other factors are the key triggers of contact accidents for autonomous ships. These factors involve the key control behavior of perception, decision-making, control and communication of autonomous ships, and there is also a complex coupling and amplification effect among different factors. Finally, prevention and control measures are proposed, including improving the ship-shore data exchange protocol and joint exercise mechanism, integrating multi-source sensors and machine learning algorithms, developing a plan for human-machine permission switching, and using VR/AR technology to conduct immersive emergency training.

    Experimental study on explosion intensity of dust cloud in lead and zinc concentrate powder
    DENG Zhenli, QIN Guoju, TANG Yunjian, LI Xiaoquan, WEI Ningying
    2025, 35(12):  64-69.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1385
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    In order to prevent dust cloud combustion and explosion accidents in the high sulfur content concentrate warehouse after beneficiation, lead concentrate and zinc concentrate of Panlong Lead Zinc Mine were taken as examples. Tests on explosion intensity and the lower explosion limit at different mass concentrations were conducted using a 20 L balls. Main parameters, including the maximum explosion pressure, explosion lower limit, and explosion index of the lead zinc concentrate powder dust cloud, were obtained. The results show that maximum explosion pressures of lead concentrate and zinc concentrate dust clouds were 0.335 and 0.251 MPa, respectively, both occurring when the mass concentration of the dust cloud was 1 000 g/m3. The lower explosive limits of mass concentration are 160-170 and 210-220 g/m3, respectively, indicating low explosion risk. The explosion risk and hazard of dust clouds in lead concentrate are higher than those in zinc concentrate. The explosion mechanism of concentrate dust cloud particles being ignited, exploded, and subjected to a chain reaction is obtained. These findings provide an experimental and theoretical basis for preventing dust cloud explosion of concentrate in the concentrate warehouse.

    Real-time prediction model for landslide displacement based on PSO-GRU-OL-MRT
    TANG Yufeng, HE Liqiu, XIONG Qingyuan, XIONG Yaling, SHI Yanqiu, HU Guangzhong
    2025, 35(12):  70-77.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0023
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    To address the challenges that static prediction models face in accurately forecasting dynamic landslide trends and the high computational costs associated with dynamic models—which hinder real-time prediction—this study proposes a novel real-time model for landslide displacement prediction. The model integrated Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network, Online Learning (OL), and dynamic Model Retraining (MRT). First, a static landslide prediction model was established by integrating PSO and GRU. Second, an OL strategy was incorporated into the static model, enabling dynamic updates and real-time predictions as new monitoring data were acquired. Then, small-batch MRT was performed based on prediction accuracy evaluation to predict landslide trends dynamically and in real time. Finally, a comparative analysis of several related models was conducted using the Wangeryan landslide in Sichuan Province as a case study. The results indicate that the OL and MRT methods significantly improve prediction accuracy. Specifically, the PSO-GRU-OL-MRT model achieved Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and R2 values of 0.795, 3.53, 1.40, and 0.954, respectively, with an average prediction time of 25.0 seconds per instance, demonstrating the highest prediction accuracy. In comparison, the GRU-OL-MRT model yielded values of 1.73, 7.82, 2.54, and 0.917 for the same four metrics, with an average prediction time of 0.496 seconds per instance, significantly reducing computational costs while maintaining relatively high prediction accuracy.

    Optimal design of school bus intelligent airbags for enhanced safety of middle-sized children
    HONG Liang, CHEN Zhihao, LIU Peng
    2025, 35(12):  78-87.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0140
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    In order to mitigate biomechanical injuries sustained by middle-sized children during frontal collisions of school buses, this study investigated the optimal design of intelligent airbags. Initially, a validated school bus simulation model was constructed based on sled test data. Subsequently, methods for determining head, thorax, and femur injury values for a 10-year-old THUMS dummy were established, and the model, including the school bus restraint system, THUMS dummy and intelligent airbag, was developed. Next, based on NSGA-III, the adaptive propagation factors were proposed, the Gaussian mutation operator and the evolutionary mechanism of the particle swarm optimization method were introduced, and the non-dominated sorting level was improved, thus putting forward the improved NSGA-III. Finally, the design optimization of the intelligent airbag was conducted using the improved NSGA-III to determine the optimal configuration of the airbag. The results demonstrate that the improved NSGA-III outperforms the other three state-of-the-art optimization algorithms. Under normal, 10° forward tilt, 20° forward tilt, 5° right tilt, 10° right tilt and lying sitting postures, the head injury criterion (HIC15), intracranial pressure (IP), liver pressure (LP), left and right femur forces (FL and FR, respectively), and weighted injury criterion (WICC) for middle-sized children are significantly reduced when the proportional coefficient of the gas mass-flow rate of the inflation valve, the opening pressure and opening coefficient of the deflation valves, and the installation height of the air bag are set at 1.23, 1.37×105 Pa, 2.10, and 478 mm, respectively.

    Baseline modeling method for aircraft air conditioning system based on improved MSET
    HAN Yanfei, WU Yongzheng, ZHONG Lunlong, BAI Zixuan, GAN Lizhong, WU Renbiao
    2025, 35(12):  88-95.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1597
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    In order to effectively monitor the potential performance degradation of core components in aircraft air conditioning systems, a baseline modeling method for aircraft air conditioning systems based on modified MSET was proposed in this paper. Firstly, QAR data of key components was selected as the feature parameter. Secondly, using healthy historical data as training sample, the density peak clustering method was used to screen state data and construct memory matrices for both non-low-temperature and low-temperature datasets. Then, the adaptive diagonal loading technique was applied to MSET process to reduce the abnormal fluctuations caused by the pathological state of the memory matrix. Finally, a performance baseline was established between the multivariate feature variables and the system operating state, and real flight data from Airbus A320 aircrafts was used to analysis. Results show that the proposed method can simultaneously establish performance baselines for multiple key components such as primary heat exchanger, main heat exchanger and air cycle machine. It can effectively detect flight cycles with performance degradation before component failure, and the detection results are relatively accurate, providing a reference standard for airlines' condition based on maintenance and health management.

    Division of spontaneous combustion risk zones in coal mine gob areas using gas kernel density distribution
    GUO Qing, REN Wanxing, WANG Shengcheng, WANG Hao
    2025, 35(12):  96-102.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1445
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    To prevent coal spontaneous combustion disasters in the gob area and precisely delineate hazardous zones, the variation patterns of CO and O2 volume fractions along the gob length were statistically analyzed based on field measurements. Critical warning threshold ranges for spontaneous combustion were established and a gob hazard zoning method based on gas volume fraction kernel density was proposed. The results demonstrate that O2 volume fraction exhibits a linear variation with distinct stages, and the variation rate before the inflection point is lower than that after the point. The CO volume fraction follows a quadratic polynomial variation. The kernel densities of both CO and O2 volume fractions decrease with increasing gob length. Their highest kernel density distributions occur within 0-10m and 0-30m, respectively. O2 volume fraction is more stable before the inflection point but exhibits greater fluctuation afterward. The average upper and lower acceptable limits for O2 volume fraction before and after the inflection point are 3.3% and 6.3%, respectively. The critical CO and O2 volume fraction values for hazard zoning based on kernel density are 0.009% and 15.1%, which divides the gob area into four quadrants and three risk levels (safe, potentially hazardous, and hazardous).

    Global fixed-time emergency control of space robot under safety constraints
    LEI Ronghua, HOU Hailiang, FU Xiaodong
    2025, 35(12):  103-110.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1506
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    In order to solve the safety constraint problem of uncertain space robot (USR) with time constraints and output constraints, a second-order sliding mode global fixed-time emergency control method was adopted. The dynamic model of the uncertain space robot was established by applying the momentum conservation theorem and Lagrangian method. To achieve the safety output goal, an obstacle Lyapunov function was introduced to limit the system error within the preset range. Based on this, the upper bound of the system's uncertain terms was estimated, and the system's time constraints were further considered. By using the power summation integration technique, a second-order sliding mode global fixed-time emergency controller was constructed. The results show that root-mean-square error(RMSE) of the proposed method is 55.71% and 56.45% lower than that of the terminal sliding mode fixed-time controller without output constraints in Case 1 and Case 2 respectively, and it can ensure that the outputs of the USR system are strictly limited within the preset safety boundary, indicating the superiority of the tracking performance of the designed control method.

    Construction and factor analysis of accident causation model for long-distance oil and gas pipelines
    WANG Qian, CHANG Weichun, ZHAO Jingrong, WANG Zhihao, GOU Zenian, TONG Ruipeng
    2025, 35(12):  111-118.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0535
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    In order to explore the theoretical connotation and practical path of the systematic causation model of oil and gas pipeline accidents, 241 domestic and international oil and gas long-distance pipeline accidents were counted first, and the types of domestic and foreign accident causes and the contents of investigation reports were compared and analyzed. Secondly, we integrated the factor system of HFACS model and the hierarchical structure of STAMP model, and put forward an accident causation model that covers 4 system levels and 17 influencing factors. Finally, the N-K model and social network analysis method were used to carry out risk coupling calculation, network model construction, centrality analysis and core-edge analysis. The results show that equipment failure and pipeline corrosion account for 35.3% and 22.8% of the causes of oil and gas long-distance pipeline accidents. The risk coupling value is directly proportional to the number of system-level couplings. Inadequate safety training, delayed emergency response, lack of safety oversight, lack of risk awareness, lack of risk communication, behavioral violations and equipment process issues are the core influences on the accidents. The full life cycle management of accidents includes the reduction phase, readiness phase, response phase, and recovery phase.

    Study on oxidation and auto-ignition characteristics of bituminous coal of different particle sizes in an alkaline environment
    WANG Wenjie, LI Xuping, REN Xiaopeng, ZHANG Jing, DU Yixuan, YANG Wangbei
    2025, 35(12):  119-128.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0956
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    In order to prevent and control the spontaneous combustion of residual coal in alkaline coal mines, the effect of coal particle size on coal oxidation self-ignition in an alkaline environment had been explored. Through water quality tests and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) tests, the microstructural changes of coal with different particle sizes soaked in alkaline solution were analyzed and judged. The oxidation kinetics of coals with varying particle sizes soaked in alkaline solutions had been investigated through programmed heating experiments and calculations of apparent activation energy. The results show that during the process of soaking coal particles of varying sizes in an alkaline solution, the redox potential (ORP) and total dissolved solids (TDS) exhibit significant changes as soaking time increases, the content of active functional groups in the coal increases, the coal samples with a particle size of 0-1 mm exhibit significantly higher levels of active functional groups compared to the other test groups. After soaking in an alkaline solution, coal samples with smaller particle sizes exhibit lower apparent activation energy. As particle size decreases, the amount of oxygen consumed during oxidation increases, enhancing the oxidation capacity. Consequently, the quantities of CH4, and C2H6 gases released in the later stages of oxidation also progressively rise. In an alkaline environment, smaller coal particle sizes experience more severe erosion. The lower the energy barrier that must be overcome for oxidation, the more intense the coal-oxygen composite reaction becomes.

    Application of LSTM model with multi-algorithm fusion factor screening in dam deformation prediction
    YIN Xiaojun, DING Yong, LI Denghua
    2025, 35(12):  129-138.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0198
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    To address the reliance on a single factor selection approach in traditional dam deformation prediction and the difficulty of comprehensively capturing complex inter-factor relationships among high-dimensional influencing factors, a factor screening method based on the fusion of multiple algorithms was proposed and applied to construct an LSTM model using optimally factors. Specifically, influencing factors were selected separately using the correlation coefficient method, neighborhood component analysis (NCA), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique. The results from these individual methods were subsequently integrated. Since correlations exist among the factors, highly correlated ones were further eliminated using symmetrical uncertainty (SU), thereby an optimized factors set was obtained. The selected factor set was then used to develop a dam deformation prediction model via an LSTM network. A concrete-faced rockfill dam in Xinjiang was used as the case study. The model performance was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results demonstrate that, compared with traditional factor selection methods, the proposed multi-algorithms are integrated and factors with significant influence on dam deformation are comprehensively and accurately identified. MSE is reduced by 20.11%-59.09%, RMSE by 10.61%-36.05%, and MAE by 9.95%-37.86%, and a superior predictive model was obtained, compared with models using conventional factor selection methods. For specific monitoring points, the maximum reductions in MSE, RMSE, and MAE reach 53.5%, 31.9%, and 34.7%, respectively, while the highest R2 value attains 0.986 0.

    Inversion of source information in multi-factor optimized Gaussian model by using chaotic mapping-based adaptive firefly algorithm
    LUO Jinyu, WANG Yongqiang, ZHANG Shengzhu, DENG Limin, PENG Minjun, KUAI Niansheng
    2025, 35(12):  139-146.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0732
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    To qucikly obtain the source strength and location information from hazardous gas leakage incidents, a multi-factor optimized Gaussian plume dispersion model was proposed, and the leakage source parameters were inverted by combining it with a CAFA. Key environmental factors such as wind speed distribution, surface resistance, and surface reflection were incorporated into the Gaussian plume model to enhance its fitting capability under complex conditions through multi-factor calibration. Furthermore, a chaotic mapping was introduced to improve the population diversity and global search ability of firefly algorithm(FA), thereby achieving an effective balance between global optimization and local refinement while reducing the risk of falling into local optima. The results indicate that, after optimization based on wind speed distribution, surface resistance, and surface reflection, the error of the Gaussian plume model is reduced by 16%. CAFA effectively can avoid falling into local optima, reducing the source strength inversion error from 63.56% to 0.22%, and the leak source coordinate inversion error from 1.5 m to 0.2 m.

    Structural reliability assessment of gas pipeline segments considering multiple defects correlation
    PENG Weiyuan, PENG Shiliang, CHEN Pengchao, SU Huai, ZHANG Hong, ZHANG Jinjun
    2025, 35(12):  147-153.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1701
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    A structural reliability evaluation method for gas pipeline segments with multiple defects, based on Copula functions, was proposed to address the characteristics of the interrelationship between defects and the difficulty in quantifying the highly nonlinear coupling effects of multiple defects. First, based on the limit state equations of pipeline segments corresponding to different defects, Monte Carlo (MC) method was used to calculate the failure probability and probability distribution of pipeline segments under the influence of a single defect. Second, the probability distribution of each defect were treated as random variables, and the Copula functions were employed to study the impact of the correlation between different defects on the pipeline failure probability. The joint failure probability of the pipeline segment under the coupling effect of two defects was obtained. Third, the reliability of the pipeline segment with multiple defects was determined based on the second-order narrow-bound theory. Finally, using this method, the impact of the correlation between corrosion and crack defects on the structural reliability of gas pipeline segments was explored, and the variation of pipeline reliability was analyzed under different defect depths and wall thickness ratios (0.2-0.8). The results show that, under the condition that the failure probabilities of the defects are at the same order of magnitude and do not differ significantly, the correlation of the same type of defects is stronger, and the coupling effect has a greater impact on the pipeline failure probability. Compared with traditional series methods that assume independence between defects, which underestimate the pipeline reliability, the results of this method are more consistent with practical needs. This approach provides theoretical support for the stable operation of gas pipeline segments with multiple defects.

    Time-series prediction model for leakage dispersion of buried high-pressure large-diameter gas pipelines
    HAN Ziqi, XU Tong, CAI Jitao, ZHANG Siqi, ZHANG Li
    2025, 35(12):  154-163.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0676
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    In order to address the challenges of unclear spatial concentration distribution and uncertain future evolution in high-pressure large-diameter gas pipeline leakage scenarios, a predictive model for gas leakage dispersion was proposed by integrating machine learning-based dimensionality reduction and time series forecasting methods. Firstly, a multi-condition dataset of gas leakage concentration fields was generated using computational fluid dynamics simulations. Subsequently, the dimensionality reduction module and time series forecasting module of the predictive model were separately optimized and trained using this dataset. Finally, the model's predictive accuracy was evaluated on an independent test set, and the prediction errors under various forecast horizons were analyzed. The results show that the model achieves a mean absolute error of 0.000 5 and a mean absolute percentage error (mAPE) of 6.82% on the test set, with the mAPE remaining below 14% across different prediction time steps.

    Study on thermal and flame retardant properties of hydrated phase change materials for preventing coal spontaneous combustion
    LI Jingjing, LU Yi, SHAO Shuzhen, SHI Shiliang, SHI Zhengjing, YU Bo
    2025, 35(12):  164-171.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0064
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    To effectively suppress the transition of coal spontaneous combustion oxidation in goaf areas into the accelerated stage, a stable and high-heat-storage PCM was prepared using ammonium aluminum sulfate dodecahydrate and magnesium sulfate heptahydrate as raw materials. Through differential scanning calorimetry tests, solid-liquid transition tests, programmed heating tests, infrared spectroscopy, thermal insulation tests, and microscopic analysis, PCM thermal properties, the driving mechanism of solid-liquid transition, heat storage capacity, and coal oxidation inhibitory performance were studied. The test results show that the developed material has a phase transition temperature of 66.8℃, a latent heat of phase transition of 300.708 J/g, and a relatively low specific heat capacity during the heating process. The melting time exhibits an exponential decrease with increasing temperature, and a dense covering film forms after melting. When the material is added at a mass fraction of 15%, the inhibitory rate reaches 41%. Under a 500℃ heat source, with a material thickness of 30 mm, the effective thermal insulation time reaches 65 minutes.

    Public safety
    Risk evaluation model of accidents in key marine areas using tree augmented naive Bayesian network
    LYU Jing, REN Zixin, FAN Hanwen, CHANG Zheng
    2025, 35(12):  172-179.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0529
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    In response to the frequent and high-impact accidents in key marine areas, a risk assessment model for accidents in such areas based on TAN network was established. To address the issue of partial sample bias in accident reporting, the boxplot method was employed to eliminate outliers and improve data quality. Considering the complexity and correlation of risk factors, a random forest algorithm was utilized to identify key risk factors and establish a risk evaluation index system for accidents in key marine areas. In addition, the performance of TAN network model was compared with six machine learning models for validation and analysis. The results demonstrate that TAN network achieves the highest accuracy of 93.02%. The findings indicate that ship speed, ship length, and pirate attacks are the primary factors contributing to risk events in key marine areas. Vessels aged between 11 and 20 years should be prioritized for maintenance and inspection. In addition, ships navigating in shallow key marine areas should operate with increased caution.

    Fire accident analysis of sweeping robot-heater based on FRAM-PLTS
    HUANG Guozhong, ZUO Zhiyong, DENG Qing, CHEN Hanxige, CAO Zhengkai
    2025, 35(12):  180-186.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0449
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    To address the safety risk issues of smart household appliance products, a systematic risk analysis was conducted by taking two sweeping robot-heater fire accidents in a certain location as the research subjects. An integrated method combining the FRAM and PLTS was adopted. FRAM was applied to analyze the accidents, through which nine core functional modules were identified, including navigation module, obstacle avoidance sensor module, and motion control module. Subsequently, PLTS was introduced to quantitatively determine the main characteristics of the input and output terminals of each functional module. Based on this quantitative analysis, four functional resonance modules that led to the accidents in the sweeping robot-heater were confirmed. The results show that the primary causes of the accidents include insufficient sensor accuracy and failure of users to implement the "power-off when leaving" operation. Additionally, the barrier system for risk prevention and control is identified, which consists of physical barriers, functional barriers, intangible barriers, and symbolic barriers.

    Resilience assessment of subway crowd stampede accidents based on SD and MEE model
    WANG Qiquan, FENG Weixiang, YANG Songli
    2025, 35(12):  187-195.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0798
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    In order to further prevent subway crowd stampede accidents and improve the safety management of metro stations, a metro crowd stampede resilience concept was proposed based on resilience theory. Centered on absorption capacity, resistance capacity, recovery capacity, and adaptation capacity, the developmental stages of metro crowd stampede resilience were analyzed, and a resilience evaluation index system was constructed by identifying core influencing factors related to crowd density. By integrating SD with MEE model, a metro crowd stampede resilience evaluation model was developed. This model was then applied to analyze the Beijing Xizhimen Metro Station. Results show that the model overcomes the limitation of traditional static evaluation models in depicting the dynamic evolution of the metro system's resilience capacity over time, enabling a quantitative assessment of dynamic resilience changes. The overall resilience level of Xizhimen Station is Grade II (relatively high resilience). However, due to delays in real-time monitoring and insufficient emergency response, it drops to Grade III (moderate resilience) during morning peak hours, with adaptability constrained by the low coverage rate of intelligent systems.

    Crowd safety risk assessment based on Seq2Seq-attention network
    CAO Shuchao, GE Weibin, LI Conghui, ZHANG Jun
    2025, 35(12):  196-203.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1477
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    In order to explore the safety of interactions between pedestrian groups moving in different directions, a risk assessment method for pedestrian safety was proposed based on a Seq2Seq network integrated with an AM. By analyzing the interactions among pedestrians, local density was introduced as an additional input feature to better characterize dynamic interpersonal behaviors. The observed sequential features of pedestrians within a continuous time window were fed into an LSTM-based encoder-decoder architecture, and AM was employed to capture multidimensional critical information during motion, enabling the reconstruction of complex crowd movement patterns across various scenarios. Furthermore, pedestrian safety risks were quantified by introducing a crowd pressure metric, and the pressure value ranges corresponding to three typical movement states were calculated to enable risk stratification. The results show that the average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE) in trajectory prediction are less than 0.3 m under both unidirectional and bidirectional flow conditions at different densities, indicating the model's high accuracy in trajectory prediction. Based on the risk variation observed in bidirectional flow scenarios, it is found that the probability of accidents increases significantly when pedestrians' velocities change abruptly under high-density conditions. Therefore, timely warnings of crowd states and proactive intervention measures are required to mitigate potential safety risks.

    Research on automobile safety risk discrimination utilizing LLMs-based agents: driven by complaint text
    YANG Yi, WANG Donglin, CHEN Zhensong
    2025, 35(12):  204-212.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0065
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    To address the limitations of relying on manual extraction of knowledge from complaint texts in automotive safety risk management, this study employed LLMs for automated risk discrimination. First, over 50 000 complaint texts covering eight major subsystems such as the engine were collected. A demonstration sampling method based on Bilingual and Crosslingual Embedding(BCEmbedding) model and community detection algorithm was proposed to construct a diverse and high-quality example knowledge base. Secondly, prompts were designed from perspectives such as scenarios, skills, and examples to develop agents capable of performing risk keyword extraction and expansion, as well as subsystem risk categorization. Finally, by analyzing reasoning knowledge from retrieved texts and utilizing chain of thought techniques, a risk level knowledge base for retrieved texts was established. A consensus-seeking multi-agent(MA) system based on LLMs was designed, resulting in a discriminative model for automotive safety risk levels. The results show that the model not only reduces labor costs but also achieves high accuracy and efficiency. It effectively supports risk term extraction, risk categorization, and risk level assessment in complaint incidents, thereby enhancing safety risk management.

    Resilience analysis of urban road networks based on LSTM model for rainfall-induced day-to-day traffic flow degradation
    WANG Hongwei, RUAN Xiaobo, LI Yulong, TANG Yutao, DING Jianxun
    2025, 35(12):  213-220.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1472
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    To explore the time-varying performance of urban road networks under regular rainfall and establish a reasonable evaluation system for road network resilience, an LSTM model for the rainfall-induced traffic flow degradation in urban road segments was first constructed, and a network performance function with time-varying characteristics was second defined. Then, based on the resilience concept, a time-varying resilience calculation model for road networks was derived. Finally, the effect of rainfall on the time-varying characteristics of road segments and networks was investigated based on rainfall information and traffic data of a certain city and the Sioux Falls network. The results show that when the duration or amount of rainfall increases, the traffic flow degradation of road segments increases on weekdays. The road network resilience is a comprehensive reflection of the synergistic effect of various related road segments, and therefore its response to rainfall is slower than that of traffic flow degradation, and its value is generally not less than 0.9 under regular rainfall conditions. The road network resilience during low rainfall seasons is significantly stronger than that during high rainfall seasons, and the annual resilience of road networks is usually maintained at a higher level when not affected by rainfall disasters, and the difference between adjacent years is not significant.

    Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation
    Scenario deduction of sudden mountain rainstorm disaster considering psychological factors of emergency subjects
    FANG Danhui, ZENG Niping, WANG Peipei
    2025, 35(12):  221-229.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1739
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    In order to effectively respond to sudden mountain rainstorm disaster and explore the impact of emergency subjects' psychology on disaster evolution, a method combining game theory and BN was used to simulate the disaster's progression. First, historical disaster cases were analyzed, and consultations with relevant experts were conducted to identify four key scenario elements: emergency scenarios, disaster-forming environment, emergency measures, and human psychology. The Jaccard index was then employed to determine the relationships between these scenarios, while game theory methods were applied to optimize the BN node probabilities, which were initially estimated through case analysis statistics and triangular fuzzy number methods. This led to the construction of a BN-based disaster simulation model that incorporated the psychological factors of emergency subjects in the context of sudden mountain rainstorm disaster. Finally, the model was applied to analyze the "8·21" mountain flood and debris flow disaster in Jinyang, Sichuan, and comparative experiments were carried out. The results demonstrate that the disaster reasoning model is feasible and superior, and the neglect of psychological factors leads to an underestimation of disaster risks. Therefore, emergency management agencies should consider the influence of human psychology on early warnings, evacuation, and resource allocation when designing emergency strategies, in order to improve the effectiveness and adaptability of their measures.

    Propagation blocking mechanism of urban waterlogging disaster chain in Changsha based on complex network
    ZHOU Sicong
    2025, 35(12):  230-237.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0210
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    To uncover the cross-system cascading propagation mechanism of urban waterlogging disaster chains and enhance blocking effectiveness, a coupled drainage-traffic network model was first constructed based on complex network theory, integrating high-precision topographic data, real-time traffic flow, and historical flooding records. A dynamic cascading-failure algorithm was then employed to quantify node centrality and link vulnerability, thereby dissecting the cross-system propagation path from “rainstorm-runoff-ponding-traffic paralysis”. Finally, a three-level resilience blocking strategy—critical-node reinforcement, redundant-road-network optimization, and intelligent-response coordination—is proposed. The results show that pump-station expansion and redundant road design can effectively reduce waterlogged area and shorten traffic-interruption duration. And this enhances the system resilience and proactive immunity of critical urban infrastructures. It shifts the disaster-prevention paradigm from passive emergency response to active immunity.

    Emergency technology and management
    Evaluation of safety emergency information disclosure quality in non-financial reports of high-risk enterprises
    WANG Xisheng, LIU Yun, LI Mingwei
    2025, 35(12):  238-245.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1834
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    To reval the disparities and shortcomings in safety and emergency management information disclosure, and to promote the strengthening of corporate safety responsibility and to improve of emergency management capability, textual information from 1 593 listed companies from 2008 to 2023 was collected from multiple sources, including CSR and annual reports of high-risk industries. Based on the three dimensions of reliability, relevance, and quantification, TF-IDF weighting method was applied to construct a 12-indicator evaluation framework for the quality of safety and emergency management information disclosure. The results show that corporate social responsibility reports provide more comprehensive safety emergency information and have become the primary disclosure channel. The overall quality of disclosure is relatively low. Only a few companies score in the upper range for disclosure quality, and the gaps between compaies are significant and continuously widenning. The disclosure content gradually focuses on the construction of emergency plans, emergency response and risk prevention and control strategies, but quantitative disclosure in areas such as safety investment and regulatory compliance remains insufficient. Significant differences exist among industries in terms of the number of companies disclosing information, focal points of disclosure and disclosure quality, with a lack of unified standards.

    Antecedents and mechanisms of enterprises' willingness to participate in government-led emergency logistics collaboration
    WANG Yi, LI Ying, CHEN Yan, GU Yong
    2025, 35(12):  246-253.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0185
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    This study examines antecedents and underlying mechanisms shaping enterprises' willingness to participate in government-led emergency logistics collaboration. A questionnaire of transportation enterprises in Wuhan was conducted to assess their participation willingness. Drawing on TPB and CSR Pyramid theory, a theoretical model was developed to represent the formation mechanisms of enterprise participation willingness and empirically tested using Logit regression analysis. Results show that the government's multi-party coordination and scheduling capabilities and safety assurance capabilities have significant positive effects on enterprise participation willingness, while the compensation mechanism has a marginally significant effect. Two improvement pathways are proposed: strengthening perceived facilitating factors to reinforce enterprises' trust and confidence, and optimizing enterprises' expectations of long-term positive returns to enhance their recognition of social impact.