基于贝叶斯网络的地铁工程系统韧性评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.016

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 98-103.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.016

基于贝叶斯网络的地铁工程系统韧性评价

陈群^1,2 教授, 黄骞^1,2, 陈哲^1,2 讲师, 王志扬³ 工程师

1 福建工程学院管理学院,福建福州 350118
2 福建产业经济发展研究院,福建福州 350118
3 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院,广东深圳 518055

收稿日期:2018-08-11 修回日期:2018-10-14 发布日期:2020-11-25
作者简介:陈群 (1968—),女,福建福州人,硕士,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事工程项目管理等方面的研究。
基金资助:
福建省科技重大专项(2013HZ0004-3);福建省产学合作重大项目(2014H6004);教育部人文社会科学研究专项任务项目(17JDGC020)。

Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on Bayesian networks

CHEN Qun^1,2, HUANG Qian^1,2, CHEN Zhe^1,2, WANG Zhiyang³

1 School of Management, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou Fujian 350118, China
2 Institute of Fujian Industrial Economic Development, Fuzhou Fujian 350118, China
3 Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen Guangdong 518055, China

Received:2018-08-11 Revised:2018-10-14 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高地铁建设施工的安全性和稳定性,开展地铁工程系统抵抗风险并快速恢复能力的研究。通过引入韧性概念,分析影响地铁工程系统韧性的主要因素,利用贝叶斯网络(BN)建立表达各因素间因果关系的韧性模型,并通过调查采集的数据样本学习网络模型的参数;通过调整网络中的各结点分析各因素与系统韧性的关系,明确应采取的措施和重点控制的对象,从而提高系统韧性,确保正常施工安全有序地开展。研究表明:用该模型能够量化地铁工程系统韧性值,并推理分析各因素对韧性值的影响,从而提高建造管理能力。

关键词: 地铁工程系统, 风险, 韧性, 贝叶斯网络(BN), 量化评价

Abstract: To improve the safety and stability of metro construction projects, and to ensure efficient construction activities, this paper was aimed at studying and evaluating the capability of the metro engineering system to resist and adapt to risks, as well as to maintain normal productions. A concept of resilience of metro engineering system was introduced. Factors influencing the resilience were analyzed. BN was employed for studying the ability of the metro engineering system in resisting risks and quickly recovering. A resilience model representing the causal relationships between those components has been built with a BN. Then, data samples from survey results were exploited to learn the parameters of the network, before the network can be adjusted to quantitatively analyze the impacts of the components on the system resilience, so that important actions and objects to monitor were recommended. The results show that the resilience model of the metro engineering system can be used to accurately quantify the resilience of the metro engineering system, analyze effects of the factors on the resilience, and thus improve the construction management capability.

Key words: metro engineering system, risk, resilience, Bayesian network(BN), quantitative evaluation

中图分类号:

X913.4

陈群, 黄骞, 陈哲, 王志扬. 基于贝叶斯网络的地铁工程系统韧性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(11): 98-103.

CHEN Qun, HUANG Qian, CHEN Zhe, WANG Zhiyang. Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on Bayesian networks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(11): 98-103.

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基于贝叶斯网络的地铁工程系统韧性评价

Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on Bayesian networks

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