关键词: 突发事件, 群决策, 多元不确定偏好, 有序加权平均(OWA)算子, 灰色局势

Abstract: When it comes to emergency decision-making for unconventional incidents, the problem that multiple uncertain judgment preference information is concomitant will stand in the way. As a solution to this problem, and meanwhile, as a way to improve the efficiency of emergency resource allocation, the authors were aimed at developing a grey situation group emergency decision-making method based on multiple uncertain preference information. Firstly, some frequently-used uncertain preference information expressions were uniformly converted to a normalized utility value expression. Then, the decision-making experience of experts and the quality of their decision information should be considered and combined with OWA operator, and a linear combination algorithm was designed to determine the information aggregation weights, with which the individual preference can be effectively aggregated into group preference. After that, a grey situation group decision-making algorithm was constructed, and it was finally applied to select a satisfactory situation of emergency resource allocation for a large geological disaster in Southwest China. The application result indicates that the method fully considers the uncertainty characteristics of group experts' evaluation, such as subjectivity, fuzziness and pluralism of preference expressions, and the emergency resources allocation result obtained by using this method agrees with actual emergency decision-making mechanism.

Key words: unconventional incident, group decision-making, multiple uncertain preferences, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator, grey situation