危化品事故多层级链式推演模型及案例分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.03.1155

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升危化品企业的风险防控能力,支撑事故发生后迅速地进行应急决策研判,基于灾害链理论,从热辐射、毒气、超压3类危化品事故关键致灾因子出发,提出灾害链多层级链式推演模型。采用流体扩散模型和Probit模型,分别构建危化品容器起火概率及顺序预测算法和危化品爆炸点火时刻估计算法,实现对危化品事故中燃烧和爆炸演化过程的定量计算分析。并以广东省某树脂生产厂为研究案例,建立1条由危化品泄漏事故引发的灾害链,推演分析灾害链各节点的演化时间和发生概率。分析结果表明:灾害链推演模型能有效定量化分析实际危化品厂区事故的演化过程、预测事故节点发生概率及时间,并在一定程度上帮助检验危化品厂区布局安全。

关键词: 危化品事故, 灾害链, 链式推演, 蒙特卡罗, Probit模型

Abstract:

To enhance the risk prevention and control capabilities of hazardous chemical factories and support emergency decision-making in case of accidents, a multi-level deduction model for the disaster chain was proposed. Furthermore, three categories of key factors (such as thermal radiation, toxic gases, and overpressure) affecting hazardous chemical accidents were considered in the model. Based on the fluid diffusion model and Probit model, the fire probability and sequence simulation algorithm of hazardous chemicals container and the ignition time estimation algorithm of hazardous chemicals explosion were proposed, respectively. Then, the quantitative analysis of the combustion and explosion evolution process in hazardous chemical accidents was performed. For the case of a resin chemical production company in Guangdong province, a disaster chain caused by hazardous chemical leakage accidents was developed to analyze the evolution time and probability of each node. The results indicated that the proposed deduction model can effectively analyze the evolution process of the actual hazardous chemical disaster chain, predict the probability and time of accident nodes, and provide fundamental knowledge for the safety layout of hazardous chemical plants.

Key words: hazardous chemical accidents, disaster chain, chain deduction, Monte Carlo, Probit model

中图分类号:

X928.5化学物质致因事故

何青伦, 姜文宇, 王飞, 李鑫, 王智. 危化品事故多层级链式推演模型及案例分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(3): 162-170.

HE Qinglun, JIANG Wenyu, WANG Fei, LI Xin, WANG Zhi. Multi-level disaster chain deduction analysis and case application of hazardous chemical accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(3): 162-170.

图/表 10

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

图5

表2

热辐射作用下各路径热辐射值及罐组失效时间

传播路径	热辐射值/ (kW·m^-2)	$t f$ /min
1→2	23.99	9
1→3	17.2	13.1
1→4	32.04	6.5
12→3	21.84	10
12→4	34.54	6
13→2	28.63	7.38
13→4	36.23	5.66
14→2	26.49	8.05
14→3	21.39	10.25
123→4	38.73	5.25
124→3	26.03	8.22
132→4	38.73	5.25
134→2	31.13	6.71
142→3	26.03	8.22
143→2	31.13	6.71

表2

表3

表4

图6

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槽罐编号	与爆炸中心的距离/m	承受超压/ kPa	失效概率
R02	12.68	48.78	0.9
V02	9.45	90.18	1
R03	7.22	158.28	1
V03	6	233.05	1
R04A	12.7	48.38	0.9
R04B	16.3	29	0.86
R05	19.97	18.88	0
R06	23.76	13.13	0
R08	2.5	1452.3	1
R09	6.5	197.15	1
R10	10.5	72.36	0.99

罐组失效顺序	出现次数	概率
1→234	1 180	0.118
1→243	2 132	0.213
1→324	896	0.089 6
1→342	1 340	0.134
1→423	2 658	0.265 8
1→432	1 794	0.179 4

节点序号	触发条件	能否触发
S2	S1+火源+立即点火	能
S3	S1+液池扩大+爆炸蒸气云形成+ 火源+延迟点火	能
S4	S1+液池扩大+蒸气挥发+无火源	能
S5	S1+液池扩大+蒸气挥发+无火源	能
S6	S1+S2+人员位于损伤范围内	能
S7	S1+S2	能
S8	S3+建筑物达到失效超压	能
S9	S3+人员位于损伤范围内	能
S10	S2或S12+S13	能
S11	S3+设备达到失效超压	能
S12	S2	能
S13	S12	能
S14	S13+部分未燃烧	能
S15	S3+碎片+泄漏+点燃	能
S16	S15	能
S17~S25	S3+超压+碎片+泄漏+点燃	否
S26	S3+超压+碎片+大量泄漏+高热	否