Coupling evolution analysis of subway tunnel construction safety risk based on N-K model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.2102

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the mechanism of safety risk factors in subway tunnel construction and prevent construction safety accidents scientifically, the N-K model was introduced into the evolution coupling analysis of safety risk in subway tunnel construction. On the basis of the definition of construction safety risk factors and the analysis of the coupling mechanism, the coupling interaction scenarios were constructed according to the coupling hierarchical network model, and the combined classification was carried out according to the number of coupling. The coupling effect measurement model based on N-K model was established, and the coupling information multivariate interaction and coupling effect quantitative calculation were carried out. The validity and accuracy of the model were verified by taking 231 typical accidents of subway tunnel construction in China in recent 20 years as examples. The results show that safety accidents are directly proportional to the risk coupling value, and the more coupling factors, the greater the risk value. The coupling risk value of human and management is the highest, and the coupling risk value of management and environment is the lowest. The coupling of subjective and objective factors is more likely to lead to safety accidents.

Key words: metro tunnel, construction safety, risk coupling, evolution mechanism, N-K model

FANG Jun, GUO Peiwen, ZHU Ke, CHEN Zhengfu. Coupling evolution analysis of subway tunnel construction safety risk based on N-K model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(6): 1-9.

Figures/Tables 11

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时间	案例	事故类型	人的因素	机的因素	管的因素	环的因素	统计类型	耦合类型
2021-05-07	杭州地铁4号线	土方坍塌	1	0	1	1	10011	T₃₆(a,d,e)
2019-12-01	广州地铁11号线	横通道坍塌	0	1	1	1	01011	T₃₉(b,d,e)
2018-02-07	佛山地铁2号线	透水坍塌	0	1	1	1	01011	T₃₉(b,d,e)
2017-11-04	成都地铁10号线	起重伤害事故	1	1	1	1	11011	T₄₃(a,b,d,e)

单因素耦合	次数	n₀₀₀₀₀=0	n₁₀₀₀₀=9	n₀₁₀₀₀=2	n₀₀₁₀₀=3	n₀₀₀₁₀=1	n₀₀₀₀₁=15
单因素耦合	频率	P₀₀₀₀₀=0.000 0	P₁₀₀₀₀=0.039 0	P₀₁₀₀₀=0.008 7	P₀₀₁₀₀=0.013 0	P₀₀₀₁₀=0.004 3	P₀₀₀₀₁=0.064 9
双因素耦合	次数	n₁₁₀₀₀=8	n₁₀₁₀₀=9	n₁₀₀₁₀=1	n₁₀₀₀₁=6	n₀₁₁₀₀=2	n₀₁₀₁₀=1
	频率	P₁₁₀₀₀=0.034 6	P₁₀₁₀₀=0.039 0	P₁₀₀₁₀=0.004 3	P₁₀₀₀₁=0.026 0	P₀₁₁₀₀=0.008 7	P₀₁₀₁₀=0.004 3
	次数	n₀₁₀₀₁=2	n₀₀₁₁₀=3	n₀₀₁₀₁=3	n₀₀₀₁₁=1	—	—
	频率	P₀₁₀₀₁=0.008 7	P₀₀₁₁₀=0.013 0	P₀₀₁₀₁=0.013 0	P₀₀₀₁₁=0.004 3	—	—
多因素耦合	次数	n₁₁₁₀₀=2	n₁₁₀₁₀=2	n₁₁₀₀₁=8	n₁₀₁₁₀=3	n₁₀₁₀₁=19	n₁₀₀₁₁=19
	频率	P₁₁₁₀₀=0.008 7	P₁₁₀₁₀=0.008 7	P₁₁₀₀₁=0.034 6	P₁₀₁₁₀=0.013 0	P₁₀₁₀₁=0.082 3	P₁₀₀₁₁=0.082 3
	次数	n₀₁₁₁₀=2	n₀₁₁₀₁=4	n₀₁₀₁₁=5	n₀₀₁₁₁=4	n₁₁₁₁₀=23	n₁₁₁₀₁=18
	频率	P₀₁₁₁₀=0.008 7	P₀₁₁₀₁=0.017 3	P₀₁₀₁₁=0.021 6	P₀₀₁₁₁=0.017 3	P₁₁₁₁₀=0.099 6	P₁₁₁₀₁=0.077 9
	次数	n₁₁₀₁₁=13	n₁₀₁₁₁=17	n₀₁₁₁₁=3	n₁₁₁₁₁=23	—	—
	频率	P₁₁₀₁₁=0.056 3	P₁₀₁₁₁=0.073 6	P₀₁₁₁₁=0.013 0	P₁₁₁₁₁=0.099 6	—	—

P_00...=0.129 9	P_01...=0.090 9	P_10...=0.359 3	P_11...=0.419 9	P_0.0..=0.116 9	P_0.1..=0.103 9	P_1.0..=0.285 7	P_1.1..=0.493 5
P_0..0.=0.134 2	P_0..1.=0.086 6	P_1..0.=0.342 0	P_1..1.=0.437 2	P_0...0=0.060 6	P_0...1=0.160 2	P_1...0=0.246 8	P_1...1=0.532 5
P_.00..=0.225 1	P_.01..=0.264 1	P_.10..=0.177 5	P_.11..=0.333 3	P_.0.0.=0.277 1	P_.0.1.=0.212 1	P_.1.0.=0.199 1	P_.1.1.= 0.311 8
P_.0..0=0.125 6	P_.0..1=0.363 6	P_.1..0=0.181 8	P_.1..1=0.329 0	P_..00.=0.216 5	P_..01.=0.186 1	P_..10.=0.259 7	P_..11.=0.337 6
P_..0.0=0.103 9	P_..0.1=0.298 7	P_..1.0=0.203 5	P_..1.1=0.393 9	P_...00=0.151 5	P_...01=0.324 7	P_...10=0.155 8	P_...11=0.368 0

P_000..=0.073 6	P_001..=0.056 3	P_010..=0.043 3	P_100..=0.151 5	P_110..=0.134 2	P_101..=0.207 8	P_011..=0.047 6	P_111..=0.285 7
P_00.0.=0.090 9	P_00.1.=0.039 0	P_01.0.=0.047 6	P_10.0.=0.186 1	P_11.0.=0.155 8	P_10.1.=0.173 2	P_01.1.=0.047 6	P_11.1.=0.264 1
P_00..0=0.030 3	P_00..1=0.099 6	P_01..0=0.030 3	P_01..1=0.060 6	P_10..0=0.095 2	P_10..1=0.264 1	P_11..0=0.151 5	P_11..1=0.268 4
P_0.00.=0.082 3	P_0.01.=0.03 6	P_0.10.=0.051 9	P_0.11.=0.051 9	P_1.00.=0.134 2	P_1.01.=0.151 5	P_1.10.=0.207 8	P_1.11.=0.285 7
P_0..00=0.030 3	P_0..01=0.103 9	P_0..10=0.030 3	P_0..11=0.05 3	P_1..00=0.121 2	P_1..01=0.220 8	P_1..10=0.125 5	P_1..11=0.311 7
P_0.0.0=0.017 3	P_0.0.1=0.099 6	P_0.1.0=0.043 3	P_0.1.1=0.060 6	P_1.0.0=0.086 6	P_1.0.1=0.199 1	P_1.1.0=0.160 2	P_1.1.1=0.333 3
P_.000.=0.129 9	P_.001.=0.095 2	P_.010.=0.147 2	P_.100.=0.086 6	P_.011.=0.116 9	P_.110.=0.112 6	P_.101.=0.090 9	P_.111.=0.220 8
P_.00.0=0.047 6	P_.00.1=0.177 5	P_.01.0=0.077 9	P_.10.0=0.056 3	P_.11.0=0.125 5	P_.10.1=0.121 2	P_.01.1=0.186 1	P_.11.1=0.207 8
P_.0.00=0.090 9	P_.0.01=0.186 1	P_.0.10=0.034 6	P_.1.00=0.060 6	P_.0.11=0.177 5	P_.1.10=0.121 2	P_.1.01=0.138 5	P_.1.11=0.190 5
P_..000=0.082 3	P_..001=0.134 2	P_..010=0.021 6	P_..100=0.069 3	P_..011=0.164 5	P_..101=0.190 5	P_..110=0.134 2	P_..111=0.203 5

P_0000.=0.064 9	P_0001.=0.008 7	P_0010.=0.026 0	P_0100.=0.017 3	P_1000.=0.064 9	P_0011.=0.030 3	P_0110.=0.026 0	P_1100.=0.069 3
P_0101.=0.026 0	P_1010.=0.121 2	P_1001.=0.086 6	P_1110.=0.086 6	P_1101.=0.064 9	P_1011.=0.086 6	P_0111.=0.021 6	P_1111.=0.199 1
P_000.0=0.004 3	P_000.1=0.069 3	P_001.0=0.026 0	P_010.0=0.013 0	P_100.0=0.043 3	P_001.1=0.030 3	P_010.1=0.030 3	P_011.0=0.017 3
P_110.0=0.043 3	P_101.0=0.051 9	P_100.1=0.108 2	P_111.0=0.108 2	P_110.1=0.090 9	P_101.1=0.155 8	P_011.1=0.030 3	P_111.1=0.177 5
P_00.00=0.013 0	P_00.01=0.077 9	P_00.10=0.017 3	P_01.00=0.017 3	P_10.00=0.077 9	P_11.00=0.043 3	P_00.11=0.021 6	P_10.10=0.017 3
P_01.01=0.026 0	P_10.01=0.108 2	P_01.10=0.013 0	P_11.10=0.108 2	P_01.11=0.034 6	P_11.01=0.112 6	P_10.11=0.155 8	P_11.11=0.155 8
P_0.000=0.008 7	P_0.001=0.073 6	P_0.010=0.008 7	P_0.100=0.021 6	P_1.000=0.073 6	P_0.011=0.026 0	P_0.110=0.021 6	P_1.100=0.047 6
P_1.010=0.013 0	P_1.001=0.060 6	P_0.101=0.030 3	P_0.111=0.030 3	P_1.110=0.112 6	P_1.101=0.160 2	P_1.011=0.138 5	P_1.111=0.173 2
P_.0000=0.039 0	P_.0001=0.090 9	P_.0010=0.008 7	P_.0100=0.051 9	P_.1000=0.043 3	P_.0011=0.086 6	P_.0110=0.026 0	P_.1100=0.017 3
P_.1001=0.043 3	P_.1010=0.013 0	P_.0101=0.095 2	P_.0111=0.090 9	P_.1110=0.108 2	P_.1101=0.095 2	P_.1011=0.077 9	P_.1111=0.112 6