FCM-based vulnerability evolution analysis of metro systems under storm disturbances

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.10.2221

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to prevent subway safety accidents under storm disturbances， an FCM-based root cause analysis method was proposed to assess subway system vulnerability. A causal model consisting of six concepts of human behavior， equipment and facilities， safety management， emergency rescue， environment and vulnerability was constructed to simulate subway system vulnerability within the FCM framework using text mining and expert interviews. The results show that all five factors are strongly correlated with subway system vulnerability， and their correlation magnitudes are safety management > human behavior > emergency rescue > equipment and facilities > environment； equipment and facilities are the most suspicious causes of subway system vulnerability， in addition， attention should be paid to monitoring the emergency rescue reserve and subway operation environment； subway system vulnerability is most sensitive to changes in safety management and personnel behavior. This method can be applied to the prevention of subway safety accidents， so as to improve the safety management of the subway system.

Key words: fuzzy cognitive map（FCM）, rainstorm interference, metro system, vulnerability, safety management

ZHAO Luwei, WANG Qing'e. FCM-based vulnerability evolution analysis of metro systems under storm disturbances[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(10): 186-192.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Tab.1

Factors influencing vulnerability of metro systems under storm disturbances

影响因素		包含内容
人的行为 $V 1$	工作人员	业务水平、安全管理意识
人的行为 $V 1$	乘客	乘车环境风险认知、安全防护意识
设备设施 $V 2$	设备设施	运行状态、性能、防护、关联性
安全管理 $V 3$	安全管理	教育培训、规章制度、国家法律法规、自身监控监察、组织结构
应急救援 $V 4$	应急救援	资源保障、处置效率、管理计划
环境 $V 5$	自然环境	暴雨/洪涝
环境 $V 5$	运营环境	地铁员工的工作环境、乘客的乘坐环境、暴雨环境下的大客流冲击

Tab.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Tab.2

Stable values of VT under different scenarios in predictive analysis

影响因素	$P (V T / (V i = 1))$	$P (V T / (V i = 0.5))$	$P (V T / (V i = - 0.5))$	$P (V T / (V i = - 1))$
人的行为 $V 1$	0.838 7	0.762 7	-0.762 7	-0.838 7
设备设施 $V 2$	0.808 1	0.742 1	-0.742 1	-0.808 1
安全管理 $V 3$	0.843 3	0.766 0	-0.766 0	-0.843 3
应急救援 $V 4$	0.829 1	0.756 0	-0.756 0	-0.829 1
环境 $V 5$	0.780 8	0.725 1	-0.725 1	-0.780 8

Tab.2

Fig.4

Tab.3

Stable values of Vi under different scenarios in diagnostic analysis

影响因素	$P (V i / (V T = 1))$	$P (V i / (V T = 0.5))$	$P (V i / (V T = - 0.5))$	$P (V i / (V T = - 1))$
人的行为 $V 1$	0.741 6	0.702 4	-0.702 4	-0.741 6
设备设施 $V 2$	0.814 8	0.746 4	-0.746 4	-0.814 8
安全管理 $V 3$	0.765 3	0.715 9	-0.715 9	-0.765 3
应急救援 $V 4$	0.799 3	0.736 5	-0.736 5	-0.799 3
环境 $V 5$	0.7879	0.706 7	-0.706 7	-0.787 9

Tab.3

Tab.4

Sensitivity analysis

变量	变动占比/%					$V T$ 平均
变量	-20	-10	0	10	20	变化值/%
人的行为 $V 1$	0.931 5	0.934 2	0.936 8	0.939 3	0.941 7	0.272 6
设备设施 $V 2$	0.932 7	0.934 8	0.936 8	0.938 7	0.940 6	0.211 1
安全管理 $V 3$	0.931 3	0.934 1	0.936 8	0.939 4	0.941 9	0.283 3
应急救援 $V 4$	0.931 9	0.934 4	0.936 8	0.939 1	0.941 4	0.253 8
环境 $V 5$	0.933 6	0.935 2	0.936 8	0.938 3	0.939 8	0.165 5

Tab.4

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