Study on safety risk of external environment along high-speed rail based on Petri net model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.S1.0980

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to further promote environmental improvement along the high-speed rail, prevent the occurrence of high-speed rail emergencies effectively, and ensure safe and stable operation of high-speed rail, the safety risk of the external environment along high-speed rail was analyzed and studied. Firstly, the Petri net model was constructed, and parameters were calculated based on external environment emergencies along the high-speed rail. Then, based on reasoning rules of the fuzzy Petri net, the transmission probability among risk factors was calculated; risk value of each risk transmission path was evaluated; critical risk transmission paths were identified, and the formation mechanism of emergencies along high-speed rail was studied. Finally, breeding sources of safety risk of the external environment along high-speed rail were further analyzed from surroundings, natural factors, construction and other aspects. The research results show that the sources of safety risk of emergencies along high-speed rail mainly include people, surrounding objects, the environment and construction units. The illegal behaviors of pedestrians and illegal construction are important sources of emergencies along the high-speed rail.

Key words: Petri net, along high-speed rail, external environment, safety risk, probability of occurrence

WANG Meng. Study on safety risk of external environment along high-speed rail based on Petri net model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(S1): 57-62.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 12

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库所	库所含义	命题	命题含义	库所	库所含义	命题	命题含义
P₁	高铁运行安全状况	d₁	高铁沿线突发事件发生	P₁₇	高温、高寒	d₁₇	影响线索等
P₂	动车组系统状况	d₂	动车组故障	P₁₈	地震	d₁₈	阻断线路损毁设备
P₃	工务系统状况	d₃	高铁工务故障	P₁₉	泥石流	d₁₉	影响线路钢轨
P₄	牵引供电系统状况	d₄	供电系统故障	P₂₀	建筑方	d₂₀	违法施工或施工不当
P₅	通信信号状况	d₅	通信信号故障	P₂₁	施工方	d₂₁	违法施工或施工不当
P₆	运行调度系统状况	d₆	运行设备故障	P₂₂	设计方	d₂₂	设计方案异常
P₇	高铁沿线外部环境状况	d₇	高铁沿线外部环境异常	P₂₃	轻飘硬飘物	d₂₃	侵限影响运行
P₈	自然因素	d₈	恶劣环境产生影响	P₂₄	树木种植类	d₂₄	侵限影响运行
P₉	施工类	d₉	非法施工影响运行	P₂₅	人	d₂₅	非法上道等不当行为
P₁₀	周围类	d₁₀	侵限影响运行	P₂₆	生产经营活动	d₂₆	危害高铁运行
P₁₁	动物类	d₁₁	产生破坏或影响行为	P₂₇	交叉跨越类	d₂₇	损坏高铁设备
P₁₂	风	d₁₂	影响周围物体	P₂₈	建(构)筑物	d₂₈	侵限高铁线桥设备
P₁₃	雨	d₁₃	影响行车	P₂₉	飞鸟	d₂₉	损坏设备
P₁₄	冰雪	d₁₄	损坏行车设备	P₃₀	蛇	d₃₀	损坏设备
P₁₅	雷电	d₁₅	击损设备	P₃₁	鼠	d₃₁	损坏设备
P₁₆	雾霾	d₁₆	造成污闪	P₃₂	羊等大型动物	d₃₂	损坏设备

变迁μ(t_j)	μ₁(t₁)	μ₁(t₂)	μ₁(t₃)	μ₁(t₄)	μ₁(t₅)	μ₂(t₆)	μ₃(t₆)	μ₄(t₆)	μ₅(t₆)
发生概率	0.101 9	0.495 1	0.470 9	0.009 7	0.092 2	1.000 0	1.000 0	1.000 0	1.000 0
变迁μ(t_j)	μ₆(t₆)	μ₇(t₇)	μ₇(t₈)	μ₇(t₉)	μ₇(t₁₀)	μ₈(t₁₁)	μ₈(t₁₂)	μ₈(t₁₃)	μ₈(t₁₄)
发生概率	1.000 0	0.194 2	0.116 5	0.684 5	0.004 9	0.004 9	0.009 7	0.111 7	0.048 5
变迁μ(t_j)	μ₈(t₁₅)	μ₈(t₁₆)	μ₈(t₁₇)	μ₈(t₁₈)	μ₉(t₁₉)	μ₉(t₂₀)	μ₉(t₂₁)	μ₁₀(t₂₃)	μ₁₀(t₂₄)
发生概率	0.019 4	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.004 9	0.058 3	0.116 5	0.009 7	0.184 5	0.024 3
变迁μ(t_j)	μ₁₀(t₂₅)	μ₁₀(t₂₆)	μ₁₀(t₂₇)	μ₁₀(t₂₈)	μ₁₁(t₂₉)	μ₁₁(t₃₀)、μ₁₁(t₃₁)、μ₁₁(t₃₂)
发生概率	0.490 3	0.000 0	0.029 1	0.009 7	0.004 9	0.000 0

排序	关键风险传递路径	路径含义	路径风险值
1	P₂₆→P₁₀→P₇→P₃→P₁	高铁周围居民行人类不当行为→沿线外部环境异常→ 高铁线路通畅受影响→引发高铁突发事件	0.166 2
2	P₂₆→P₁₀→P₇→P₄→P₁	高铁周围居民行人类不当行为→沿线外部环境异常→ 牵引供电系统故障→引发高铁突发事件	0.158 0
3	P₂₄→P₁₀→P₇→P₃→P₁	高铁周围类轻飘物、硬飘物侵限→沿线外部环境异常→ 高铁线路通畅受影响→引发高铁突发事件	0.062 5
4	P₂₄→P₁₀→P₇→P₄→P₁	高铁周围类轻飘物、硬飘物侵限→沿线外部环境异常→ 牵引供电系统故障→引发高铁突发事件	0.059 5
5	P₂₆→P₁₀→P₇→P₂→P₁	高铁周围居民行人类不当行为→沿线外部环境异常→ 动车组受损→引发高铁突发事件	0.034 2
6	P₂₄→P₁₀→P₇→P₂→P₁	高铁周围类轻飘物、硬飘物侵限→沿线外部环境异常→ 动车组受损→引发高铁突发事件	0.012 9

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