Comprehensive evaluation on subway operation safety resilience based on DEMATEL-ISM-ANP

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.2120

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to avoid safety risks during subway operation, a conceptual model of subway operation safety resilience was established based on resilience theory, and assessment was conducted from four aspects, including individuals, mechanical equipment, environment and management, all of which had an impact on the operation. Firstly, DEMATEL was used to determine key accident causative factors. Then, relationship between indicators was revealed by ISM, and the ISM of resilience evaluation index was established. Finally, indicator weights were calculated by adopting ANP, relatively objective evaluation results were obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index system, and the model was applied in the case of Beijing metro Daxing line. The results show that resilience level of Daxing line is relatively high, which is consistent with actual situation, but that of its environmental factors is medium, indicating its poorer capability to prevent and control external intrusion and disasters. Making efforts in aspects of environmental factors, personnel, mechanical equipment and management can help improve subway operation safety resilience.

Key words: subway operation safety resilience, comprehensive evaluation, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling (ISM), analytic network process (ANP), Fuzzy method

HUANG Yajiang, LI Shuquan, LI Yixin, ZHENG Han. Comprehensive evaluation on subway operation safety resilience based on DEMATEL-ISM-ANP[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(6): 171-177.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Tab.1

Index system of subway operation safety and resilience

一级指标	二级指标	解释说明	韧性内涵分析
人员因素A	乘客安全意识A₁	乘客缺乏相关的安全意识,携带易燃易爆物品进入车站或发生任何不文明、不安全的行为会在地铁内引起恐慌、暴乱、踩踏等事故^[2,6,10]	乘客状态的稳定性;乘客安全认知能力
人员因素A	操作人员状态A₂	操作人员的心理状态、身体状态和职业技能程度等,都会直接或间接的导致地铁运营安全面临危险^[6,10]	操作人员心理、身体状态的稳定性;操作人员的专业技能水平;操作人员的应急救生能力
机械设备因素B	车辆系统B₁	车辆系统的材料、行车部件等都会影响地铁运营的安全^[1-2,6]	车辆系统冗余度;车辆系统恢复能力;车辆系统稳定性
	通信、信号系统B₂	通信、信号系统的优劣程度直接影响着地铁运行的效率和事故发生时救援的效率^[1,6]	通信、信号系统冗余度;通信、信号系统恢复能力
	供电设备B₃	供电设备若出现问题,会发生行车次序混乱、轨道故障等一系列连锁反应^[1,6]	供电设备冗余度;供电设备恢复能力;供电系统稳定性
	机电设备B₄	机电设备包括通风、给排水、扶梯、照明服务等,机电设备质量的高低关系着地铁运行的安全性和稳定性^[1⇓-3]	机电设备冗余度;机电设备恢复能力;机电设备稳定性
	基建设施B₅	基建设施如地铁线路、消防设备等,若存在安全隐患则会发生突发事故或影响救援效率等^[1,15-16]	基建设施冗余度;机电设施恢复能力;基建设施稳定性
环境因素C	外部环境C₁	外部环境可分为自然环境和社会环境,自然环境如洪涝等灾害的发生,社会环境如政治、经济、文化等会对地铁的正常运营产生干扰^[1,15-16]	外部环境突发影响的应对能力;外部环境影响范围广度的控制措施
环境因素C	内部环境C₂	内部环境指工作环境和企业文化。工作的环境会影响工作人员的状态,影响工作效率。企业文化会使员工对工作的认知程度产生一定影响^[1,15-16]	内部环境突发影响的应对能力;内部环境影响范围广度的控制措施
管理因素D	安全教育培训D₁	使工作人员掌握必要的安全知识,能够增强人员的安全意识,减少伤亡,减轻职业危害^[10,13]	安全教育与培训情况的适应度
	安全管理机构D₂	及时检查地铁的安全情况并监督各部门的正常运行^[1,5,10]	应急指挥机构运营管理效率度
	安全规章制度D₃	健全的规章制度是各项工作顺利实施的保证,存在漏洞则会导致管理混乱^[10,16]	应急管理体系效率度;运营管理规章制度稳定性

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影响因素	f_i	e_i	M_i	N_i	中心度排序	因素属性
A₁	3.24	3.63	6.87	-0.39	12	结果因素
A₂	4.25	5.01	9.26	-0.76	1	结果因素
B₁	3.58	4.51	8.09	-0.93	4	结果因素
B₂	3.37	3.90	7.27	-0.53	11	结果因素
B₃	3.99	4.08	8.07	-0.09	5	结果因素
B₄	3.71	3.95	7.66	-0.24	6	结果因素
B₅	3.59	3.88	7.47	-0.29	9	结果因素
C₁	4.37	3.85	8.22	0.52	3	原因因素
C₂	3.79	3.69	7.48	0.10	7	原因因素
D₁	4.03	3.29	7.32	0.74	10	原因因素
D₂	4.80	3.52	8.32	1.28	2	原因因素
D₃	4.04	3.44	7.48	0.60	8	原因因素

一级指标	权重	二级指标	组内权重	评价结果
一级指标	权重	二级指标	组内权重	高韧性	较高韧性	中等韧性	较低韧性	低韧性
A	0.04	A₁	0.09	0	6	10	2	0
A	0.04	A₂	0.91	3	10	4	1	0
B	0.91	B₁	0.27	3	8	5	2	0
		B₂	0.30	2	13	2	1	0
		B₃	0.08	4	11	2	1	0
		B₄	0.12	5	11	2	0	0
		B₅	0.22	5	9	3	1	0
C	0.01	C₁	0.33	4	4	9	1	0
C	0.01	C₂	0.67	3	7	6	2	0
D	0.04	D₁	0.22	2	7	8	1	0
		D₂	0.46	1	10	7	0	0
		D₃	0.32	3	9	3	1	0

一级指标	高韧性	较高韧性	中等韧性	较低韧性	韧性等级
A	0.14	0.52	0.28	0.07	较高
B	0.19	0.57	0.17	0.06	较高
C	0.19	0.33	0.39	0.09	中等
D	0.10	0.48	0.33	0.03	较高
总结	0.19	0.57	0.18	0.01	较高