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Investigation of safety & security attributes WU Chao China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0926 Abstract （339）   HTML （3）    PDF（pc） （1511KB）（80）       Knowledge map    Save The words safety & security (simplified as SS) are the most basic terms of SS discipline. Only by clarifying SS characteristics, connotation, extension and development timely can we better understand SS science and study its development law. Therefore, using the methods of historical analysis and logical thinking and reasoning, this paper expounded the dimension and complexity of SS, the specialty and popularity of SS, the ontology and epistemology of SS, the natural and social attributes of SS, and the classification method of SS definitions. Then the nature and characteristics of the discipline of SS science were inferred. The research conclusions are as follows: discussing SS issues requires a common language environment. The SS goes beyond the scope of technological terminology. Since SS is a reflection of human understanding, it is difficult for SS issues research to enter the ontological level. The natural and social characteristics of human beings determine that SS has dual attributes of nature and society, and the eternal nature of contradictions, which leads to the complexity of SS issues and the diversity of its definitions. The paradigm of giving SS definition through "preset + SS" can better express the scope and margin of SS. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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An empirical study on training system of practical application-oriented emergency management undergraduate talents in new era OUYANG Zhenhua, WANG Qiong, YI Haiyang, WANG Hua China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 26-34.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0398 Abstract （186）   HTML （2）    PDF（pc） （2574KB）（77）       Knowledge map    Save In order to promote the innovation of talent training system, the present study conducted an empirical study on training objectives, training models and training paths of emergency management talents in 22 colleges and universities. The results of the empirical study show that the talent training objectives of most colleges and universities are to cultivate application-oriented emergency talents with broad vision, broad interdisciplinary ability, and high comprehensive quality. To achieve the talent training objectives, advanced teaching concepts and methods are introduced, and the forces of the governments, enterprises and colleges are assembled to enhance the talent training quality of emergency management by constructing teaching material, curriculum system, teacher teams and professional base. Subsequently, the talent training model of “three modernizations and three systems” including paramilitary, practical, professional, credit system, academy system, and dual tutor system is developed. Finally, a training system of emergency management talent that integrates the talent training objective, talent training mode, and discipline construction is innovatively proposed, which can provide a strong guarantee for cultivating application-oriented talents in emergency management major in the new era. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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A new concept model of safety culture and its evaluation application CHEN Weijiong, HAN Weijia, LI Xin, KANG Yutao, JIAO Yu, FENG Xiang China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 11-19.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1915 Abstract （271）   HTML （3）    PDF（pc） （1778KB）（64）       Knowledge map    Save In order to improve the level of safety culture construction in the shipbuilding industry, based on the definition of safety culture and objective reality, a new concept model of safety culture (SV-MMEMS) was proposed by integrating safety values (SV) and man-machine-environment-management system (MMEMS) model. Based on the five dimensions of safety values, man, machine, environment, and management of this model, a survey was conducted on the W shipbuilding enterprise. After data processing, such as project analysis, reliability analysis, validity testing, and factor analysis, a safety culture evaluation index system for the shipbuilding industry was constructed, consisting of five dimensions, 14 first-level indicators, and 33 second-level indicators. A second-order confirmation factor analysis model for safety culture, as well as a causal path analysis model among safety culture influencing factors, was constructed using AMOS. The findings demonstrated a favorable interaction relationship between the five elements, with "SV" acting as the nucleus and the path conefficients of each element in "MMEM", which were, respectively, 0.766, 0.553, 0.720, and 0.839. The ratio is 26.6%, 19.2%, 25.0%, and 29.2% after standardization, and organizational management elements were determined to have the biggest influence on the development of W shipping enterprise's safety culture. SV-MMEMS has considerable development and application prospects in the construction and evaluation of safety culture in enterprises and organizations. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Detection and resolution strategy of UAV low-altitude conflict based on geometric relations YUE Rentian, MA Zhaofei China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 112-120.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2049 Abstract （156）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （2192KB）（55）       Knowledge map    Save In order to ensure the flight safety of multi-rotor UAVs in low-altitude airspace, a conflict detection model and conflict resolution strategy for UAV low-altitude flights were proposed. According to the current Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data of the UAV, the interactive multi-model volumetric Kalman filtering algorithm (IMM-CKF) was used to predict the trajectory of the next stage, and the potential conflict objects were screened. According to the characteristics of the flight protection area, the AABB bounding boxes of the two aircrafts are constructed, and the three-dimensional collision detection algorithm was used to judge whether the two aircraft conflict, and SOSA flight conflict resolution strategy was proposed. Finally, four common conflict scenarios were constructed. The proposed algorithm was used to detect flight conflict. The SOSA combined resolution strategy and the traditional resolution strategy, such as the height adjustment method, the direction adjustment method and the speed adjustment method were used to resolve the flight conflict according to the situation. The results show that the flight conflict detection method based on the AABB bounding box can quickly detect conflicts within 0.02 s, and the use of SOSA combined resolution strategy can reduce the increase of the flying distance to less than 5% of the direct flight distance compared with the traditional resolution strategy. The conflict detection method is robust in real time, the complexity of the resolution strategy operation is low, and the payment distance is small during the conflict resolution process. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Construction and application of urban emergency preparedness capability assessment index system JIANG Jun, CHEN Yan, HE Gangfeng, GAO Yueyi, FENG Jingyu, HE Haibo China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 190-197.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2446 Abstract （206）   HTML （9）    PDF（pc） （2049KB）（54）       Knowledge map    Save In order to objectively assess urban emergency preparedness, and address the issues of poor data collection standardization and strong subjectivity in the evaluation of urban emergency preparedness capacity in the past, research on the construction and application of assessment index system was conducted. Firstly, the establishment of the evaluation index pool was based on the provisions of the Emergency Response Law, the requirements for the safe development of urban construction, and the content of the provincial and municipal "14th Five Year Plan" emergency system construction plan. It also drew on the experience of the disaster resilience score card for cities issued by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Then, based on the statistical analysis of the current research results of emergency preparedness capacity in 36 regions, a 2-level evaluation system and grading criteria for responding to natural disasters and accident disasters, including 6 first-level indicators and 38 second-level indicators, were constructed. The evaluation model had been applied in a county-level City A in Jiangsu Province. The results show that the constructed "6-38" system has good adaptability to the characterization of urban emergency preparedness capacity, and the evaluation model can effectively identify the shortcomings of urban emergency capacity. It is shown that the quantitative characterization rate of the constructed "6-38" evaluation system indicators exceeds 80%. The evaluation results of City A are relatively consistent with its actual situation, which objectively reflects the overall level of emergency preparedness. Therefore, it indicates that the model is feasible and effective. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Study on relationship between dual prevention mechanisms of safety production WEI Shanfeng China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (S1): 64-68.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.0130 Abstract （107）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （2428KB）（54）       Knowledge map    Save In order to make enterprises correctly construct and scientifically use the dual prevention mechanism, it is necessary to understand the concepts and meanings of hazards, risks, and hidden dangers in the dual prevention mechanism and clarify the contents and methods of hazard identification and risk assessment. The two-point theory and the key theory in the law of the unity of opposites of dialectics should be used to analyze the relationship and function between grading management and control of safety risks and investigation and governance of hidden dangers. This study analyzed the whole process and its dialectical relationship from hazard identification to risk assessment and from investigation and governance of hidden dangers to management and control of risks. It clarified the relationship between dual prevention mechanisms and drew the relationship diagram of the dual prevention mechanism. The results show that the dual prevention mechanism is two kinds of working methods that are related but separated from each other. It is a working mechanism that focuses on grading management and control of safety risks, supplemented by investigation and governance of hidden dangers. It is a dual prevention system that combines primary and secondary prevention of accidents. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Application of five-dimensional analysis method in safety hazard investigation and governance MENG Fanhua, LU Hong, XIAO Yujun, LIU Wenze China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (S1): 48-51.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.0127 Abstract （97）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （1495KB）（52）       Knowledge map    Save In order to effectively manage safety hazards and reduce the likelihood of accidents, a five-dimensional analysis method was used to establish a safety hazard investigation and governance model. Through the analysis from five dimensions: scale, awareness, grid, behavior, and exposure, the characteristics and influencing factors of safety hazards were comprehensively sorted out, and scientific and effective safety control measures and management strategies were formulated. Research has shown that the implementation of the five-dimensional analysis method to address safety hazards involves systematic governance, comprehensive governance, source governance, and legal governance from all aspects of safety hazard investigation and governance. The five dimensions are interconnected to form a comprehensive and effective safety hazard governance model, ensuring workplace safety and personnel health and improving safety management levels. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Causes and correlation analysis of urban gas accidents based on text mining ZHENG Binbin, FENG Tingting, WANG Jiahe, XIAO Yuan, SUN Wenhao China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (7): 190-195.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1644 Abstract （164）   HTML （1）    PDF（pc） （3543KB）（52）       Knowledge map    Save In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of urban gas accidents, the causes of accidents affecting urban gas safety and their relevance were systematically analyzed by using the research method of text mining and complex network theory. Firstly, text mining technology was used to extract the causative factors of urban gas accidents from 1 256 gas accident cases from 2017 to 2021, and the Apriori algorithm was used to mine the association rules of urban gas accident causes, and 49 strong association rules were obtained. Then the accident cause network diagram was constructed based on the co-occurrence matrix, and the key causes and accident cause sets of gas accidents were identified through the analysis of degree centrality, compact centrality and intermediary centrality. The research results show that pipeline damage, valve opening, equipment aging, improper operation and use, hose damage and shedding are the key causes of urban gas accidents, and gas leakage is a common type of gas accident. It is mainly related to pipeline damage, valve failure and so on. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Practice research on enterprise safety culture construction in Daqing oilfield ZHOU Peng, ZHANG Tingting, WANG Yu China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (S1): 20-24.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.0328 Abstract （95）   HTML （2）    PDF（pc） （1550KB）（49）       Knowledge map    Save In order to reduce the probability of safety accidents, improve the level of enterprise safety construction and the safety quality of employees, and build a long-term mechanism for enterprise safety production, Daqing Oilfield was taken as an example to sort out the course of safety culture construction practice. By summarizing the typical features and practices of Daqing Oilfield in the traditional safety management stage, HSE system management stage, and safety culture consolidation and enhancement stage, the focuses of culture construction under different management systems were analyzed, and the mechanism of enterprise safety management was explored. The process of safety culture evolution was sorted out. The results have indicated that traditional safety management can effectively protect personnel, equipment, and other property safety and reduce the occurrence of accidents, but employee participation is insufficient. The HSE system audits, inspections, and daily supervision have not eliminated the hidden accidents, and the on-site risks are relatively still high. The major problem lies in the negligence of safety culture construction. Enterprises should pay attention to safety culture construction to maintain the continuity of safety culture construction and improve the level of enterprise safety management. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Fire detection model of wildland-urban interface based on YOLOv5s WANG Zhe, LI Xiang, YANG Dongliang, LIU Dan China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 152-158.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1532 Abstract （150）   HTML （4）    PDF（pc） （6604KB）（48）       Knowledge map    Save In order to accurately monitor the fires at wildland-urban interfaces and locate their spatial distribution, a target detection model of wildland-urban interface fires based on the improved YOLOv5s network was proposed. Images of fires at the wildland-urban interfaces were collected, and object detection datasets were annotated with the image annotation tool. CA mechanism was introduced into the backbone network of YOLOv5s to enhance the orientation and location information perception of the model to accurately locate the fire point at the wildland-urban interface. Based on the evaluation indicators of accuracy, recall rate and average accuracy, training and testing were carried out on the self-built data set. The experimental results show that the overall performance of the improved YOLOv5s model is improved, and the average accuracy of building fires increases by 0.8% and forest fires by 1.3% in the detection of fire targets in the wildland-urban interface. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Current situation, challenges and prospects of occupational injury protection system in China XU Surui, LIANG Fanjie China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 213-220.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2166 Abstract （147）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （1856KB）（46）       Knowledge map    Save In order to alleviate the problem of "no insurance to rely on, or it is difficult to rely on insurance" for workers in the new employment form, this paper studied the current situation, challenges and prospects of China's occupational injury protection system under the background of "three new" economy. Firstly, the present situation of China's occupational injury protection system was analyzed from two aspects: system orientation and definition of insured objects and system sorting. On this basis, the development and challenges of China's occupational injury protection system in four directions of levels, structure, legislation and coordination were summarized. Then the experience of occupational injury protection at home and abroad was condensed, and the three important stages of local pilot development of occupational injury protection system in China were divided. Finally, the prospect of an occupational injury protection system based on "three new" economy was proposed. The results show that: China's occupational injury protection system is orientated as a social insurance, and the insured objects should cover new occupational groups that do not have labor relations and do not fully meet the established labor relations, and traditional occupational groups that show new employment patterns. The scope of protection and policy framework still need to be continuously improved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Application of blockchain technology in emergency management: hotspots, challenges and prospects FAN Zhongqi, DAI Lin China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 182-190.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1377 Abstract （190）   HTML （4）    PDF（pc） （5031KB）（45）       Knowledge map    Save To effectively clarify the research status of blockchain technology in the field of emergency management, by applying the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses review method, a SLR identified 58 topic-related studies from the Web of Science and China National Knowledge Internet journal database. This paper summarized the challenges faced by the application of blockchain technology in emergency management and suggestions for application of blockchain in emergency management were proposed, including perfecting policies and regulations on application of blockchain, fueling development of key blockchain technology, strengthening construction of professional talent team and enhancing coordination of blockchain and other technologies, etc. The results show that the application of blockchain in emergency management is in its early booming stage of development. Based on these 58 studies, three main themes were developed: data management (40.3%), efficiency improvement (40.3%) and concept development (19.4%). These 3 themes can be further subdivided into 8 sub-themes. It presents the need for improving technical functionality, efficient management of emergency data and data security, integrity and data sharing efficiency. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Risk propensity discrimination of construction accidents under coupling of human-management-environment factors XIONG Jian, PENG Yiming, CHEN Yao, SONG Zhike, CAI Jing China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (S1): 69-75.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.1485 Abstract （69）   HTML （2）    PDF（pc） （2523KB）（45）       Knowledge map    Save In order to prevent and reduce construction accidents, a machine learning algorithm was used to identify the risk propensity of accidents from the perspectives of humans, management, and external environments. Firstly, according to the three factors of humans, management, and environments, the scales for measuring the overconfidence of construction personnel, organizational management atmosphere, and construction environment risk levels were designed and tested respectively. Secondly, according to the score of the scale, the K-means algorithm was used to classify different types of accident risk propensity, and comprehensive risk factors were proposed to judge the clustering results. Finally, principal component analysis, Borderline-Smote, and LightGBM algorithms were used to establish the risk propensity discrimination model of construction accidents, and the stability of the model was evaluated by the k-fold cross-validation method. The results show that the prediction accuracy rate of the model is 90.83%. Therefore, the model can effectively identify the risk level of construction accidents, and the accident risks can be divided into three types: low-risk propensity, medium-risk propensity, and high-risk propensity. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Exploration and application of security management mode based on ″grid & matrix″ TU Xian, YANG Jianping China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (S1): 7-11.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.0125 Abstract （95）   HTML （2）    PDF（pc） （2157KB）（45）       Knowledge map    Save In order to solve the problem of security management separation and conceptual inconsistency between the design unit and the construction unit under the EPC consortium model, the EPC project for the construction of a new factory of Three Gorges Cigarette Factory, Hubei Tobacco Industry Co., Ltd., was taken as an example, and the experience of community epidemic prevention and control grid management was fully learned. A relatively mature matrix management model in the field of engineering project management was introduced, so as to expand the professional advantages of horizontal project management and vertical functional management system architecture and construct a project security management organizational architecture based on ″grid & matrix″. By combining unmanned aerial vehicle cruising, monitoring networking, and BIM simulation exercises, the prevention capacity and monitoring and early warning capacity were improved. The results indicate that the application of project security management organizational architecture based on ″grid & matrix″ and multiple information technology means can help solve the problems of unclear responsibilities and weak supervision of various participating units in conventional project construction security management, improve enterprises' safety benefits, and reduce the probability of accidents. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Comparative analysis study of STPA and 24Model SONG Wei, FU Gui China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1172 Abstract （300）   HTML （2）    PDF（pc） （2046KB）（44）       Knowledge map    Save In order to improve and develop the accident causation theory, the four aspects of STPA and 24Model, the underlying theory, relevant definitions, analysis process and analysis difficulty, were compared and analyzed, and applied to different cases respectively. The results of the study show that both models have a strong theoretical foundation. The research object of STPA is the loss of system. It performed better at system interaction study, but the complexity is high and the research error is large, so it is more suitable for single-accident analysis. In contrast, the research object of 24Model is event in the organization. The classification of accident causes is clearer and more universal. The model is simple, the research error is small, and it is commonly used for both single-accident and multi-accident analysis. Both methods are of good extensibility. In terms of application, STPA is clear on the connection between hazards and losses. However, this method is complex and subjective on accident causation, which also lacks research on inter-organizational interactions. In contrast, 24Model is more comprehensive and clearer, but it fails in the analysis of inter-organizational interaction and design defects. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Research on impact of traffic flow in rainy environments ZHANG Jun, JIANG Fan, PENG Demeng, KOU Ziqing China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 134-143.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0400 Abstract （142）   HTML （2）    PDF（pc） （5755KB）（42）       Knowledge map    Save In order to reduce the highway accident rate in rainy days and improve the highway traffic safety management level in harsh environment, firstly, this paper used the NaSch model (Nagel-Schreckberg) of cellular automata (CA) to build a traffic simulation environment and studied the speed limit strategy of freeway in rainy days. Secondly, by analyzing the influencing factors of traffic flow in rainy days, the NaSch model considering the drivers' psychological characteristics in rainy days was constructed, and then the road traffic flow model in rainy days was established. Finally, under four different rainfall intensities, the average density, average vehicle spacing and the cumulative queue length were selected as the evaluation indexes of road traffic running level. The changing trend of road traffic running level under different rainfall intensities was studied through simulation experiments, and then the speed limit strategy under different rainfall intensities was determined. The results show that the greater the rainfall intensity, the faster the road adaptability declines and the faster the deterioration of traffic conditions. With the decrease of rainfall intensity, the adaptability of roads to high speed limit is significantly improved, but the adaptability to low speed limit is always in a low state. At the high rainfall intensity level, the road conditions can be divided into suitable speed limit zone and low speed limit zone according to the speed limit value, while at the medium and low rainfall intensity level, the road conditions can be divided into high speed limit zone, suitable speed limit zone and low speed limit zone. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Research on risk factors of hazardous material highway transport accidents based on association rules WANG Aidi, XING Yingying, ZHANG Shiwen, LU Jian China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 159-165.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1618 Abstract （105）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （1673KB）（42）       Knowledge map    Save In order to understand the characteristics and causes of hazmat transport accidents, detailed data of 1 721 hazmat transport accidents was collected. After eliminating invalid and lost accident records, 6 direct risk factors and their 18 subfactors were extracted. Furthermore, the attribute value of each risk factor variable was coded. The association rule mining technology based on the Apriori algorithm was used to quantify the degree of correlation between risk factors. After inductive analysis, 35 valuable association rules were found to explore the influence of different risk factor combinations on hazmat transport accidents. The results show that 24% of hazmat transport accidents occur on trucks carrying 24-39 tons of flammable liquid, and 13% of hazmat transport accidents involve corrosive substances, and the consequence is leakage. As for accident types, 34% of hazmat transportation accidents are rollover accidents of a single truck, and the lower the road grade is, the greater the possibility of a rollover accident. Hazmat transport accidents on low-grade highways are more likely to occur at night, because of the complex horizontal, vertical lines and imperfect traffic safety facilities of low-grade roads and the driver's reaction ability and vision conditions are constrained. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Resilience assessment of chemical industry parks based on comprehensive weighting-RSR method YUE Wenjing, YUAN Bihe, SU Shuyan, YANG Man, YANG Jiaqi, WEN Xueli China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (S1): 58-63.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.2454 Abstract （72）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （1613KB）（42）       Knowledge map    Save In order to accurately improve the resilience, recovery, and adaptability of a chemical industry park in the face of uncertainties, a chemical industry park was taken as an example to build a resilience assessment model. Firstly, based on the public safety triangle theory, an assessment system based on the risk of disaster disturbance factors, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation was established. The index weight was given by the subjective and objective combination of fuzzy interval scoring and CRITIC method, and the RSR method was introduced to rank the weighted index elements, so as to explore the resilience and weak points of the park in the face of disaster impact. Finally, the overall resilience was graded according to the RSR method. The results show that the overall resilience level of the park is in the third grade. The resilience level is high, and the safety state is good. The proposed method is effective, accurate, and scientific, and it is helpful to improve the resilience level of chemical industry parks and strengthen the construction of disaster prevention and reduction of chemical industry parks. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Evaluation of urban emergency management capabilities from perspective of safe development CHENG Fangming, WANG Chenchen, YUAN Xiaofang China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 158-167.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2014 Abstract （139）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （5633KB）（40）       Knowledge map    Save To reasonably and effectively evaluate urban emergency management capability and promote the construction of modern cities, an urban emergency management capacity evaluation system was constructed from six aspects: urban safety source governance capabilities, urban safety risk prevention and control capabilities, urban safety supervision and management capabilities, urban safety assurance capabilities, urban safety emergency rescue capabilities, and urban safety emergency recovery capabilities. The G1 method combined with the entropy weight method was used to calculate the combined weight to effectively reduce the subjective factors of weight calculation. The cloud model and the material-element extensibility model were used to construct a comprehensive evaluation model to strengthen the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation work. Then a city was taken as an example to conduct application research to verify the scientificity and effectiveness of the model. The results show that the index system can comprehensively and accurately reflect the current situation of urban emergency management capacity, and the comprehensive evaluation model can accurately and scientifically evaluate urban emergency management capacity, which can provide decision-making basis for government emergency management. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）

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Prediction of evacuation time and safety evaluation for passengers ascending stairs in subway stations YANG Xiaoxia, JIANG Hailong, LI Yongxing, PAN Fuquan, YANG Jinshun China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 168-173.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1263 Abstract （160）   HTML （0）    PDF（pc） （2904KB）（40）       Knowledge map    Save Stairs are the bottleneck areas in the process of passenger evacuation in the subway station. The safety assessment of passengers passing through the stairs helps to formulate the evacuation plan in advance. Firstly, aiming at the difficulty of collecting the evacuation data of passengers ascending the stairs, MassMotion simulation software was adopted to build a stair scene to simulate the evacuation behavior of passengers ascending the stairs, and the basic data of evacuation time were obtained. Then, the random forest model was trained and tested with basic data to predict the evacuation time of passengers ascending the stairs. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation model of evacuation safety was established, and the evacuation safety level of passengers ascending the stairs in the subway station was evaluated with evacuation time, passenger density and evacuation panic as indicators. The research results indicate that mean absolute error(MAE) of the prediction results of the random forest model used in this paper is 3.45 s, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 3.8%. Compared with back propagation neural network (BPNN) model and support vector regression (SVR) model, the prediction accuracy is higher. The comprehensive evaluation model of evacuation safety is used to evaluate the safety of the stairs in a subway station in Qingdao, and the evaluation value of evacuation safety in the early peak period is medium. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics | Comments（0）