Table of Content

28 November 2023, Volume 33 Issue 11

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Safety science theory and safety system science Safety social science and safety management Safety engineering technology Public safety Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation Emergency technology and management

Safety science theory and safety system science

System shortboard and path choice of modern emergency science development in China

QIAN Hongwei, WANG Zhihao

2023, 33(11):  1-7.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1158

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In order to strengthen the construction of modern emergency disciplines and supporting systems, promoting the training of emergency discipline talents in China, starting from the discipline positioning, by tracing the historical experience of the development of emergency disciplines at home and abroad, combined with the practical goal of building a major country emergency that supports safe China, based on the overall national security concept, the system analysis method was used to analyze the systematic problems in the current construction of emergency disciplines, and explored the path choice of discipline development. The results indicate that there are problems in the construction of emergency disciplines in China, such as unclear research objects, lack of consensus on research positioning, weak theoretical system, lack of specialized research methods, lack of typical application scenarios exclusive to the discipline, urgent need to refine professional needs, need to break through professionalization bottlenecks, and urgent need to clarify the boundary relationship between disciplines. Therefore, China should accelerate the construction of a new form of modern emergency discipline, namely the first-level discipline of emergency science and engineering, pay attention to the cross-integration of multiple disciplines and implement supporting talent cultivation measures to support the urgent needs and requirements of national emergency management capacity modernization for talent cultivation.

SWOT analysis and targeted comprehensive policy implementation of "Public Emergency Management"

QIAN Jian'an, ZHOU Ru, WANG Jinghong, JIANG Juncheng, WANG Hua, ZHAO Kun

2023, 33(11):  8-15.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1054

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To meet the demand for emergency talent in the new era and address the challenges in the teaching practice of "Public Emergency Management", a thorough analysis was conducted using situation SWOT analysis to explore the development trends and challenges of public emergency management. Additionally, multiple case studies were integrated to optimize the teaching content, seamlessly integrating the curriculum with ideological and political elements to stimulate students' interest in learning and inspire their thinking. Furthermore, innovative teaching methods were proposed in the context of the Internet Plus era to transform smartphones from a distraction in the classroom to a helpful tool for innovative learning. The super debate competition was also introduced to break through the limitations of traditional knowledge transmission, enhancing problem-based learning, classroom flipping, and active participation. Additionally, simulation technologies such as Pathfinder-based evacuation simulations and ALOHA-based hazardous material spill simulations were incorporated to increase the difficulty and challenge of the course, driving advanced learning among students. The results indicate that the targeted and comprehensive teaching innovation for this course has effectively stimulated students' enthusiasm for learning, improved their self-learning ability, and cultivated their ability to use modern tools to solve complex emergency engineering problems.

Exploration of emergency management clinic education mode

WANG Xing, NIE Baisheng, ZHOU Xiaohan, LIU Runzeng

2023, 33(11):  16-23.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0704

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In order to practice the holistic approach to national security in the new era, promote the reform of China's emergency management higher education model, and improve the practical ability and comprehensive quality of emergency management personnel, research was made to study the essence and characteristics of the clinical education model, to analyze the application significance of the clinical education model in higher legal education and other disciplines, and to explore the beneficial experience and best practice of emergency management higher education in the United States. Then, by pointing out the opportunities and challenges faced by China's emergency management higher education at present, an emergency management clinic education model that can integrate education objectives, comprehensive ability of talents, and social needs was proposed. The results show that the training of emergency management talents in China has entered a period of rapid development opportunities, and the traditional education model has a problem of constraints. Constructing the emergency management clinic education model in China is feasible, necessary and of great value. The emergency management clinic education mode is compatible with the education goal, which can improve the comprehensive ability and quality of talents, meet employment and social services, and achieve win-win results in many ways. The emergency management clinic education model can be constructed in three ways: on-campus clinics, off-campus clinics, and independent clinics, each of which can establish two types: comprehensive clinics and professional clinics

Research on talent training of emergency response workers based on collaborative emergency perspective

FAN Lin, LIU Jin, LONG Xuecheng, LIU Wei

2023, 33(11):  24-29.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0259

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In order to cope with the risks of the new era, China's emergency management advocates the coordination of multi-departments and multi-regions, advocates the cooperation between professional emergency personnel and collaborative emergency personnel, and forms an emergency management system with Chinese characteristics. In the new situation of collaborative emergency management, both the policy and the times call for coordinated development of emergency personnel. Based on the new situation, the article proposed the concept of collaborative emergency talents and analyzed the situation of emergency response worker's training, including connotation, current situation, and necessity. The article further explored strategies for emergency response worker's training to provide a reference for collaborative emergency talents. The results show that the strategies for emergency response worker's training should be explored from three dimensions. The first is to establish the training goal of demand-oriented and innovative development. The second is to build a curriculum system with distinctive characteristics and obvious advantages. The third is to explore a teaching-based and research-training teaching mode.

Safety social science and safety management

Behavioral causes analysis of construction accidents based on behavior-based accident causation 24Model theory

SUN Shimei, SUN Zuhang, FENG Ziyang, FU Gui

2023, 33(11):  30-37.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2450

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In order to conduct in-depth research on the characteristics of accidents in China's construction industry, using the behavior-based accident causation 24Model theory, starting from aspects such as human unsafe behaviors, unsafe states of objects, safety knowledge, safety awareness, safety habits, safety management, and safety culture, the causes of the five typical injury accidents in building construction were analyzed comprehensively and systematically, namely high-altitude fall accidents, object strike accidents, mechanical injury accidents, collapse accidents, and electric shock accidents. Based on the weight of accidents, the importance of the occurrence rate and impact degree of the causes at different stages was calculated. The results indicate that the main causes of construction accidents are personal behaviors, such as not wearing personal protective equipment according to regulations, not realizing the importance of safety training, lacking safety management systems, and neglecting safety training needs. The important reasons of construction accidents are failure to operate according to regulations, equipment malfunction, lack of knowledge on the use of personal protective equipment, lack of safety inspection system, and the importance of safety. In future work, safety supervisors should focus on addressing the main and important reasons and preventing them in advance to ensure work safety of enterprises.

Construction and implementation of a full-cycle emergency ability training pattern

HUANG Zhian, WEN Shiyi, YU Rongxia, DING Hao, LIU Jia, ZHAO Huanjuan

2023, 33(11):  38-44.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0965

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In order to improve the cultivation quality and solve the shortages of emergency personnel of higher educational institutions, a full-cycle emergency capability system for safety majors was established based on the four stages of crisis management (pre-crisis prevention stage, pre-crisis preparation stage, response during the outbreak of crisis and recovery during the end of crisis). It covers eight capability index points, such as crisis prevention capability, risk judgment capability, emergency protection capability, and information reporting capability. An emergency capacity training pattern from theory to practice was proposed, which includes six activities such as emergency response skills training, multi-scenario drills, and practice at teaching bases. The emergency capacity training can be carried out smoothly relying on the comprehensive guarantee of manpower, platform, system and funds. The evaluation of students' emergency response ability was carried out with the assessment of practical operation and evaluation of data, and the improvement mechanism was set for individual students and the class as a whole according to the feedback to ensure the training effect. The results show that with the construction and implementation of the system, the coverage rate of 6 activities increase to 85%, the coverage rate of 4 types of emergency drills increase to 100%, the number of emergency-related projects presided over by students increase to more than 10, apply for 5 patents, and win national awards and Beijing awards for many times.

Research on resilience of transportation infrastructure: origin development, and future

LIU Lanjian, DONG Yongqiang

2023, 33(11):  45-51.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0324

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In order to enhance the emergency management capacity of transportation, 70 articles related to the resilience of transportation infrastructure were selected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI) and the core collections of Web of Science. The development of resilience of transportation infrastructure was reviewed from the perspectives of concept, influencing factors, measurement methods, and improvement measures. The results show that the research perspective on the resilience of transportation infrastructure has evolved from engineering resilience to social-ecological resilience to emergency management. The influencing factors of resilience of transportation infrastructure have shifted from natural factors to social factors, and then to the combination of both. The quantitative methods for measuring the resilience of transportation infrastructure have become the focus and the network analysis method in the perspective of emergency management has been widely applied. The improvement of the resilience of transportation infrastructure has increasingly emphasized comprehensive governance. Integrating emergency management with the resilience of transportation infrastructure and exploring the comprehensive improvement and governance of the resilience of transportation infrastructure networks with multi-level and multi-subject will be the core issues of future research.

Research on propaganda of work safety example based on game model of small-world network

SHI Jing

2023, 33(11):  52-58.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2499

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To fully leverage the leading role of work safety examples and enhance the effectiveness of enterprise work safety example promotion, a minority game model based on small-world networks was constructed among employees to study the impact of the publicity cycle and the number of advanced work experiences on employees' subsequent safety performance. The results indicate that the leadership effect of work safety examples on employees is well simulated by the game model based on small-world networks. More frequency of promotion and the number of advanced work experiences promoted each time are not better. When the number of advanced work experiences in each promotion content reaches 2 after every 5 safety incentive cycles, good leadership effects can be achieved. The effectiveness of work safety examples is enhanced when setting an example within the small-world of employees. As long as 70% or even more employees are willing to follow the examples in their own small world network (acquaintances), the effectiveness of examples can be optimized.

Network analysis of chemical safety critical causation from perspective of stakeholders

LIU Dan, ZHU Weichang, LI Moxiao, JIN Qingsong, SAIDAH Saad

2023, 33(11):  59-66.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1087

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In order to address the issue of the lack of complex coupling relationships among stakeholders in the causes analysis of chemical accidents, firstly, taking 80 typical chemical accidents from 2016 to 2021 as cases, 6 stakeholders and 26 related risk factors were extracted, and the risk matrix was constructed. Then, Netdraw was used to visualize the matrix, and obtain the chemical safety risk network diagram. Secondly, on an overall level, the density matrix and image matrix of the block model in SNA were used to obtain 7 risk factors in the core block. On the individual level, node degree values and centrality were used to determine 9 risk factors. Then, the risk factors selected on the overall and individual levels were intersected to determine the four core risk factors in the network. Finally, the effect of the controlled risk network was tested from two aspects of overall network density and clustering coefficient. The results show that the core risk factors are four, namely illegal operations, chemical enterprises don't have the conditions for safe production, the pre-evaluation of safety evaluation institutions and the acceptance evaluation of the status quo are not in place, and the performance and quality of materials and equipment are insufficient. After controlling the core risk factors, the density of the new risk network is reduced by 35%, and the clustering coefficient is reduced by 21%, which effectively reduces the possibility of chemical accidents caused by a key risk.

Safety engineering technology

Adaptive feature extraction of general aviation forest fire rescue data

PAN Weijun, QIN Liru, LUO Chen, HUANG Yuanjing

2023, 33(11):  67-74.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1928

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The flight of aircraft in general aviation forest fire rescue is affected by factors such as weather and terrain. In order to ensure rescue efficiency and flight safety, it is necessary to refer to objective data from fire scenes for rescue dispatch decisions. In order to address the problem of poor adaptability between objective data of fire scenes and rescue plans in general aviation forest fire rescue, the influence factors of the adaptability were analyzed based on the characteristics of general aviation forest fire rescue with multi-aircraft types. A "distance-radius-velocity" general aviation fire rescue dispatch data extraction model with multiple fire scenes and multi-aircraft types was established, the input of which was composed of training data and test data obtained by the Monte Carlo method. In order to reduce the number of distance features, a method for comprehensively characterizing the distance of the fire scenes was proposed. The feature extraction accuracy of combinations of different fire scenes was explored based on naive Bayes estimation and Gaussian Bayes estimation. The results show that the proposed calculation method of distance parameters can effectively express multiple distance features, the combinations of fire scene features composed of which have a small impact on the results under the unbalanced classification of the dataset. Gaussian Bayes method is used to extract features from 3 combinations of fire scene characteristics, and the prediction accuracy reaches 73.3%, 70.2%, and 72.4%, respectively, with good results.

Small target smoke detection algorithm based on improved YOLOv5

ZHANG Jun, YIN Liu, GONG Xinfei, XU Hehua

2023, 33(11):  75-81.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0854

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In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of smoke detection for small target in fire, a smoke detection algorithm based on improved YOLOv5 was proposed. Firstly, FFA module was introduced into the backbone network, so that the model focused on the extraction of smoke feature information of small target. Secondly, the convolutional layer module was replaced by MPDH module to improve the detection part of the prediction head layer in the YOLOv5 algorithm, which was used to improve the positioning accuracy of small target smoke. Finally, the experimental results and analysis were carried out on the proprietary data set. The results show that the improved YOLOv5 small target smoke detection algorithm achieves 85.4% target detection accuracy, and the accuracy and recall rate are improved by 3.2% and 6.3% respectively compared with the original algorithm.

Allocation optimization of temporary parking in airport based on Monte Carlo trajectory deviation

CHEN Huaqun, ZHU Xing'ao, YU Haiwang

2023, 33(11):  82-88.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1021

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In order to solve the safety and efficiency of hub airport aprons during full load or even overload operation of apron stands, the Kinematics model and Monte Carlo trajectory deviation method were used to study the allocation of temporary stands for aircraft. The kinematics model of aircraft taxing on an apron area was established by analyzing the influence of B configuration and docking corridor bridge. The Monte Carlo trajectory deviation model of aircraft in a fixed stand was put forward based on discrete statistical theory. Combined with the nominal trajectory and deviation area of Matlab simulation, the apron operation conflict probability model was constructed with temporary stands. The case verification of 30 normal stands and 4 hot spots on taxiway G of Changsha Huanghua Airport was carried out. The results show that compared with the traditional manual experience scheme, the Monte Carlo based fluorescence detection method can improve the accuracy judgment of operation conflict area, reduce the amount of affected fixed stands by 10%, interference route for push-out by 50% and conflict probability by 56.8%. Three groups of head-to-head gliding are eliminated. The research is helpful in optimizing the allocation of temporary stands and reducing risk of operation conflict.

Study on transient migration characteristics of leaking bubble in gas well annulus

DING Liangliang, ZHU Hai, CHEN Wenkang, LIU Yonghui, ZHANG Qiang

2023, 33(11):  89-96.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1653

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In order to study the effect of gas leakage on annular zone pressure, a prediction model of bubble transient migration was established based on the characteristics of gas migration in the gas well, considering buoyancy, gravity, viscous resistance, additional mass force, and Basset force. Based on the similarity principle, an experimental device for the transient migration of annular gas was designed to study the transient transport characteristics of gas under different injection volumes. The reliability of the bubble transient transport model was verified by the experimental results. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the process of sustained casing pressure in typical gas wells. The results demonstrate that the key factors impacting bubble migration speed are bubble diameter, leakage pressure, temperature, and liquid density. The higher the bubble migration rate is, the shorter the sustained annular pressure recovery time is, and the annulus pressure of a gas well cannot be discharged in time, resulting in lower well safety.

Longitudinal collision risk of CSPRs paired approach under fuzzy PID control

LU Fei, CHEN Haonan

2023, 33(11):  97-104.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0895

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In order to control the longitudinal collision risk of CSPRs approach and improve the operation safety of the program, firstly, based on QAR data, the velocity variation characteristic of aircraft in the approach process was analyzed, and its positioning error distribution in the approach phase was fitted. Secondly, considering the influence of the wake of the front aircraft, a longitudinal collision risk model of the paired approach based on position error was established, and the optimal longitudinal interval between the front aircraft and the rear aircraft was calculated. Then, the System Identification toolbox of Matlab was used to fit and identify the relevant data of engine thrust handle angle and aircraft speed change, and the transfer function of their corresponding relationship was obtained. According to this function, a fuzzy PID control system was designed to keep the collision risk to a minimum by controlling the longitudinal interval between the front and rear aircraft. Finally, the control system was verified by Simulink, and the results show that the fuzzy PID control system in this article performs better than traditional PID control systems in response time, overshoot, and stability. The fuzzy PID system can control the longitudinal collision risk of the front and rear aircraft to the lowest value within 50 seconds (1.72×10^-38 accidents/flight hours), and maintains this value throughout the entire pairing process.

Public safety

Conceptual evolution of community resilience and comparative analysis of frontier spots at home and abroad

QU Ying, XU Sheng

2023, 33(11):  105-116.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0791

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Community resilience was the ability of communities to cope with risks. As a basic component of the social system, communities were the key objects to withstand the impact of disasters. The concept evolution of "Engineering resilience → Ecological resilience → Evolutionary resilience" was analyzed from the perspective of the description of resilience content. The context of resilience evolution of "Social resilience → Urban and rural resilience → Community resilience" was analyzed from the perspective of the subject of resilience, and the study refined the systematic positioning of community resilience. Through the visual analysis of the research literature on community resilience at home and abroad by CiteSpace, it can be found that foreign research focuses on the macro direction of society, environment and economy, while domestic research tends to solve the targeted problems caused by emergencies such as COVID-19.By analyzing the evolution trend of hot spots, we can find that foreign countries are gradually moving forward from micro individuals to macro systems, while China is deepening from macro framework to micro branches. Through the analysis of research frontiers at home and abroad, it can be found that the resilience frontiers of foreign communities have shifted from the framework research and the natural field to the social field, while the domestic research frontiers have been in the field of social and urban governance.

Fast prediction for building fire spread based on machine learning

GUO Zhen, JIA Xiaoyan, LI Fumin, HU Yan, YAN Qiuyan

2023, 33(11):  117-125.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2219

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In order to quickly rehearse or reproduce the fire scene, the key influencing factors of building fire were studied by using fire dynamics software(FDS) and machine learning technology, so as to adjust the fire rescue strategy in real-time, and finally provide a space composition scheme conducive to fire engineering for architectural design. In this paper, a single-room fire smoke overflow was taken as a case, and 5 kinds of algorithm models were used to perform machine learning training and efficiency evaluation on 11 spatial composition parameters and fire conditions, a total of 7 776 sets of fire simulation result data. The experimental results show that the machine learning algorithm is suitable for parameter learning and evaluation prediction of discrete types such as building space. It can intuitively give the weight of each parameter, mine the key information in the fire dynamics system, and realize the visualization of fire data. The Random Forests(RF) algorithm has the highest prediction efficiency, and its best prediction accuracy can reach 91.82%.

Study on evacuation model considering companion behavior and emotion contagion

HUO Feizhou, FAN Dandan, LIU Chang, MA Yaping, LYU Zihan, LI Mengling

2023, 33(11):  126-132.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2286

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In order to study influence of companion behavior and emotion contagion on evacuation, combining of the Openness-Conscientiousness-Extroversion-Agreeableness-Neuroticism (OCEAN) model with SIS model, emotion contagion models of independent pedestrians and companion pedestrians were respectively constructed according to whether pedestrians walk in groups. Then, the emotion contagion model was combined with the cellular automata model to analyze the impacts of personnel density, companion ratio, emotional threshold, decay rate and intimacy on the evacuation process. The results show that emotion contagion reduces the evacuation efficiency, and the evacuation time increases with the increase of density. The evacuation time first increases and then decreases with the increase of the companion ratio, and reaches its peak when the companion ratio is in range of 0.4 to 0.6, and the trend is influenced by two factors. The emotional threshold is the critical value of the mutual transition between calm and panic. As the emotional threshold increases, the evacuation time gradually decreases. When the emotional threshold exceeds 0.3, the change in evacuation time tends to stabilize. The rate of emotional self-decay and intimacy are the main factors affecting emotional decay. The greater the rate of emotional self-decay and the higher the intimacy, the faster the decline of emotional value, and the effect of emotional self-decay rate is more significant.

Quantitative simulation of pedestrian evacuation and collision risk in urban street space

LIU Xiaofang, LIN Tao, YU Qi, CAO Xin

2023, 33(11):  133-141.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2158

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In order to reasonably do the spatial layout planning of urban streets and quantitatively study the passing safety risks of people in urban street space, simulation experiments of crowd activities in field scenarios were organized, and four types of field simulation experiments were designed, including bottleneck street space layout experiments, narrow-path street layout experiments, obstacle layout experiments in narrow-path street, and speed experiments. The quantitative relationships between the spatial layout of urban streets and crowd passing speed and pedestrian evacuation and collision risk were explored by quantitatively analyzing the relationships between passing time, collision partition number, street width, street length, obstacle layout and passing speed. The results show that the width of bottleneck street is significantly negatively correlated with the pedestrian evacuation and collision risk, and risk turning point occurs when the street width is 1.5 m, and the space limitation in front of narrow-path street can play a better role in guiding and organizing the flow of people to reduce the pedestrian evacuation and collision risk, and the layouts in which the obstacles are concentrated in the middle and change frequently in the street space have the greatest impact on crowd passing and increase the evacuation risk; and that in narrow-path street fast walking may not be able to reduce the passing time.

A dynamic planning and indication system for evacuation paths based on Zigbee coupled A^* algorithm

WANG Li, LI Yumeng, LIU Yun, ZHANG Jiaqi, REN Changxing, SUN Aijun

2023, 33(11):  142-149.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0939

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In order to effectively guide the evacuation of people in complex building fires, a dynamic planning and indication system for evacuation paths based on Zigbee coupled A^* algorithm was developed in the LabVIEW environment. Zigbee wireless communication technology was used to achieve information interconnection between fire detectors and evacuation path planning and indication systems. Firstly, based on A^* algorithm and the designed starting point selection method, the dynamic planning of the overall evacuation paths inside the building could be quickly calculated according to the fire situation. Then, the planning results would be displayed in real-time through the designed Light-Emtting Diode(LED) dot matrix evacuation indicator, which could provide visualization guidance of evacuation directions for crowds in fire scenarios to ensure safe and rapid evacuation. Finally, system testing and simulation experiment verification were conducted. The results indicate that the system has a short path calculation time and can provide accurate evacuation indication direction in real time. Through dynamic planning and intelligent guidance of evacuation paths, evacuation time can be shortened and the safety of the evacuation process can be improved. This system adopts Zigbee wireless communication technology and an LED display screen. Due to its low construction cost, simple production and convenient installation, it can be directly applied in practice, replacing the traditional fixed evacuation indicator system, and improving the safe evacuation efficiency of crowds in buildings.

Analysis method for drillers' safety evacuation under explosion load condition of driller house

ZHU Jingyu, CHEN Guoming, ZHANG Shaoyu, QI Xin'ge

2023, 33(11):  150-155.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0427

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To reduce the emergency evacuation risk of driller house under a blowout scenario, a safe evacuation analysis method for driller under the explosion load condition of driller house was proposed. Firstly, the explosion load threshold of the driller house was determined according to the load design norms and the layout of the driller house. The equivalent gas cloud volume was initially determined by utilizing the multi-energy method. Furthermore, the volume threshold of the combustible gas cloud for explosion load was determined by the inversion method based on constructed simulation model of the platform explosion under the blowout scenario. Finally, T_A value of the driller was determined according to the volume change of the gas cloud during the heavy component gas diffusion process. By comparing T_A with T_R, it could be judged whether the driller could evacuate safely. The results show that this method can provide forward suggestions for drillers in various blowout scenarios, in which the blowout rate and wind speed have great significant impacts on T_A value. The safe evacuation of the driller can be ensured when the wind speed increases to 7 m/s. In comparison, increasing the blowout rate can significantly reduce T_A value. It is a threat to the safe evacuation of drillers when the blowout rate is greater than 390 m/s.

Multi-scenario integrated scheduling model of emergency vehicles considering uncertainty

XU Jun, LI Xiao, WANG Xiulai

2023, 33(11):  156-164.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1061

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In order to improve the joint emergency rescue efficiency of rescue forces under different emergency scenarios, and to reduce rescue risk and property losses, a scenario analysis method was used to estimate the parameters of emergency state uncertainty, and an integrated emergency vehicle scheduling model aimed at minimizing the total scheduling cost and risk was established by introducing risk aversion level. Secondly, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms(NSGA-II) was used to solve the objective function value, and the simulation case was used to compare and analyze the solution results under the consideration of the scenario and without consideration of the scenario. Finally, the relationship between penalty cost and risk aversion level in different scenarios was analyzed, the reasonable risk aversion level value was given, and the final scheduling scheme was selected. The results show that the model and scheme can effectively meet the needs of different emergency situations, improve rescue efficiency, and solve the comprehensive scheduling problem of emergency vehicles under the combined effects of scenarios and risk.

Estimating fatality rate of house collapse based on human activity pattern

JIANG Wen, MENG Yaobin, ZHANG Dongni, ZHANG Yuan, WU Jiaxin

2023, 33(11):  165-173.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0500

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Efficient estimation of casualties in earthquake scenarios involves the identification of mortality rate variations among individuals in different spatial states, which may be achieved through the simulation and replication of population spatial distributions during earthquakes. Based on the human activity pattern model set which was generated from the China Human Activity Pattern of Rural Residents Survey (HAPRRES), we simulated individuals' activities during 13 earthquakes in China from 2005 to 2018 to estimate the spatial state snapshot distributions of the earthquake affected areas at their onset moment. These estimates allowed the optimization of mortality rate models by distinguishing between sleeping and awake people in earthquake-damaged houses. The optimized mortality models reveal that the mortality rate for individuals asleep (5.16‰) is six times higher than that for individuals awake (0.85‰) in seismically collapsed houses. Notably, when the adobe houses are destroyed, the mortality rate of sleeping people (1.60%) is 11.9 times higher than that for the awake people (1.34‰). Conversely, during the destruction of non-adobe houses, the mortality rate for the sleeping people (2.35‰) is 4.3 times higher than that of the awake people (0.54‰). An uncertainty analysis proves the robustness of the mortality rate model. As this explorative research demonstrates, incorporating human activity pattern model will help to improve the rapid estimation of casualties of sudden disasters.

Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation

Research on typhoon disaster emergency decision-making of power grid enterprises based on similar scenarios

SHENG Wei, GUAN Cheng, ZHANG Su, FU Wei, WANG Jingui

2023, 33(11):  174-180.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0304

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This study aims to improve the emergency preparedness and emergency decision-making ability of power grid enterprises. Firstly, based on the scenario construction theory and disaster system theory, 42 accident cases of power grid enterprises responding to typhoon disasters in recent 15 years were analyzed, and the structured hierarchical model of "event-scenario-scene-task-capability" and its index system of typhoon disaster of power grid enterprises were constructed. According to the characteristics of each index (fuzzy, judgment and numerical), the corresponding similarity calculation methods were matched. G1 method and entropy method were used to determine the subjective and objective weights to obtain the comprehensive weights, so as to calculate the overall similarity and the early-warning and response two-stage similarity. Finally, a decision-making of a power grid enterprise in a certain city in Typhoon "Meranti" was taken as the target case. The results show that, compared with the traditional model, the structured hierarchical model of "event-scenario-scene-task-capability" can realize the phased retrieval, which can better meet the decision-making needs of the early warning and response stage in the emergency process.

Emergency technology and management

Emergency management strategy of subway stampede accident based on multi-stream theory

WANG Qiquan, YANG Xingang, LAN Jun, ZHANG Yibo

2023, 33(11):  181-188.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0792

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In order to prevent the occurrence of subway stampede accidents, a multi-stream flow analysis model for subway overcrowding and stampede accidents was constructed. By analyzing and researching the crowd stream, spatial stream, time stream, emotional stream, disturbance events, and crowd overcrowding time windows of subway stampede accidents, the evolution process of subway stampede accidents was summarized, and the characteristics and influencing factors of each stream at different stages were searched. The evolution mechanism of subway stampede accidents includes peak nodes of the time stream, vulnerable areas of the spatial stream, crowd crowding of the crowd stream, and panic emotions of the emotional stream. These are key nodes in the multi-stream analysis model of subway stampede accidents. When the four streams intersect, disturbance events occur, the crowd crowding time window opens, and the intervention level of emergency experts, and the overall situation control will determine whether a subway stampede accident occurs. The analysis results show that the crowd stream is not only the fundamental cause of accidents but also the ultimate carrier of accidents. It is necessary to establish and improve the early warning and monitoring system for large crowds in subway stations, and establish emergency management strategies such as various disaster information sharing mechanisms to prevent subway stampede accidents.

Research on optimization of flood control emergency material allocation based on loss quantification

WANG Wei, WANG Yunqing, HUANG Li, YU Zhicheng, LI Yunyao

2023, 33(11):  189-195.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2124

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To optimize the allocation of flood control emergency materials in each emergency node warehouse, from the perspective of multi-warehouse collaborative storage, a multi-objective optimization model for the allocation of flood control emergency materials was established, including the shortest transportation time, the smallest storage and transportation cost, and the least out-of-stock loss. When constructing the quantitative function for out-of-stock loss, the center of gravity method was used to process the demand quantity. Using evolutionary algorithms to solve the model, NSGAII algorithm was selected to obtain the Pareto solution of the model, and then Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) was used to screen and determine the optimal allocation scheme, so as to reasonably determine the storage scale of different types of flood control emergency materials in each warehouse. Setting flood disasters as the average demand for biological resources in 13 prefecture level cities under the influence of heavy rainfall and taking the material allocation of the five sub-center warehouses of Jiangsu Provincial Water Resource and Flood Control Material Reserve Center as an example, empirical analysis was conducted. The results show that the optimized reserve scheme greatly reduces the out-of-stock loss and transportation cost and improves the efficiency of flood control emergency dispatch.

Visualization analysis of current situation of emergency rescue in China based on TF-IDF and VOSViewer

HUANG Ping, ZHANG Wenlong, YE Shenglin, YU Jun, YU Longxing

2023, 33(11):  196-205.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0819

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In order to effectively utilize the practical records of firefighting and rescue teams and extract successful experiences from emergency rescue cases, an analysis model was constructed by combining the TF-IDF algorithm and VOSviewer literature visualization analysis technology. The model aimed to analyze the common patterns and characteristics of success and failure in emergency rescue cases, and summarize the current status and development trends of emergency rescue in China. The database for this model consisted of 185 typical emergency rescue cases from the years 2007 to 2019, categorized based on types of emergency rescue actions, namely natural disasters, traffic accidents, building collapses, hazardous chemical leaks and firefighting. The results indicate that the influencing factors of emergency rescue actions in China mainly manifest in four aspects: people (rescue teams), machine (equipment technology), environment and management. Environmental factors generally have a negative impact, while the other three factors exhibit both positive and negative influences. Furthermore, there are differences in the leading influencing factors of different types of emergency rescue actions. "Machine" factors stand out in natural disasters. "Management" factors are prominent in traffic accident. "Machine" and "environment" factors are emphasized in building collapses. Hazardous chemical leaks pose outstanding issues in all four aspects of "people, machine, environment and management". "Machine" factors are highlighted in firefighting rescue.

Model of emergency supplies allocation in epidemic areas considering spread of biohazard diffusion

ZHANG Minbo, ZHONG Ziyi, YAN Jin, WANG Cuiling, WANG Zichao, LI Chunxin

2023, 33(11):  206-213.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0434

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In order to solve the problem of location selection and deployment of emergency supplies in epidemic areas after the spread of infectious biohazards, a multi-objective optimal emergency materials allocation model was established. Two kinds of objective functions, the minimization of distribution time and the minimization of the unsatisfied degree of materials, in the epidemic area were applied to this model. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible(SEIRS) model, considering the incubation period and the repeated infection rate, was combined to establish the material demand equation and predict the real-time material demand in the epidemic area. In view of the impact of the spread of the epidemic on the allocation plan of emergency materials during the emergency rescue process, an impoved NSGA-II algorithm solution model was designed. The k-means algorithm was used for pre-location to realize the dynamic update of the location plan of the distribution center applicable to the existing epidemic area. Then, further joint decisions on the dispatch number of various vehicles and the distribution amount of various materials in the distribution center were made. Taking the epidemic data of Wuhan city in 2020 as an example, comparative analysis shows that the model has high computational efficiency, and has performance advantages in convergence, diversity and stability compared with the traditional NSGA-II algorithm. The obtained emergency materials allocation plan has a shorter deployment time and less unmet degree in the epidemic area, which verifies the effectiveness of the model.

Configuration impact path of emergency logistics capacity of national central cities

SUN Qinglan, WANG Zhiyi, TIAN Shuicheng

2023, 33(11):  214-220.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0128

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In order to explore the path to improve the emergency logistics capability of national central cities, based on the relevant data of 18 national central cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Xi 'an, etc., fsQCA method was applied to explore the internal mechanism and interaction between the influencing factors and the results from the overall perspective. Firstly, six indicators, including transportation capacity, emergency resource reserve, government coordination capacity, emergency resource mobilization capacity, information sharing capacity and information early warning and monitoring capacity, were selected as antecedent condition variables from the three levels of basic support, organization and management and information technology. On the basis of variable calibration, necessity analysis, adequacy analysis of conditional configuration and robustness testing were conducted successively. The results show that none of the conditions is consistent with 1, and the consistency of all 6 antecedent conditions is less than 0.9. There are a total of 64 configurations composed of 6 antecedent conditions, and there are 5 configuration paths that affect the strong emergency logistics capacity of national central cities, with the consistency greater than 0.95 and the overall coverage reaching 0.48. There are 3 configuration paths leading to the weak emergency logistics capability of the national central city, with the consistency greater than 0.8 and the overall coverage of 0.51.

Research on emergency supplies classification and reserve strategy for chemical industry parks based on Kraljic matrix

LIU Xin, LI Shuyu, WANG Haining

2023, 33(11):  221-230.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.1025

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This study aims to improve the reserve and support capacity of emergency supplies in the chemical industry parks, and ensure that the reserved emergency supplies can properly respond to unexpected accidents and avoid waste. First, the accident characteristics of the chemical industry park were analyzed, and the types of emergency supplies required for the chemical park were summarized. Based on the Kraljic matrix, a classification model and corresponding indicator system for emergency supplies were established. The combination weighting method (AHP-CRITIC) was used to quantify the weight of various indicators, and the emergency supplies were classified. Based on the existing supplies reserve methods in China, suggestions for emergency supplies reserve strategies in chemical parks were provided. The results indicate that chemical industry parks should reserve strategic supplies (firefighting equipment, medical life-saving equipment and detection equipment), leveraged supplies (plugging equipment, breaking-in tool, emergency vehicles and personal protective equipment), bottleneck supplies (transfer equipment, washing and disinfection supplies) and general supplies (communication equipment, warning signs, smoke exhaust and lighting equipment) in priority order. Among them, strategic and leveraged supplies should mainly rely on physical reserves, and bottleneck and general supplies should use market reserves. The multi-party joint reserve model has the most economic advantages, and detailed plans can be made in combination with demand forecast.