关键词: 重载铁路, 粗糙集, 影响因素, 权重分析, 人-装备-环境-管理

Abstract: In order to identify the key factors affecting the safety of heavy haul railway transportation and improve the ability to resist safety risk, an index system was established for the factors influencing heavy haul railway safety from the angle of human, equipment, environment and management. Based on this, the Shuo-Huang railway line was chosen as the research subject. The risk sources, fault and accident data from 2004-2016 in this line were chosen to establish a conditional attribute set. The corresponding safety risk level information was chosen to establish a decision attribute set. A knowledge system of heavy load railway safety factors is built. The rough set theory was used to screen the key indexes affecting the safety of heavy haul railway in the Shuo-Huang railway line. The weights of the factors affecting the heavy haul railway safety were calculated and the differences among the factors were analyzed. The results show that in the Shuo-Huang railway line, the personnel and management factors are two main factors affecting the safety of heavy haul railway, that the personal quality and psychological quality are two main personnel factors for the heavy haul railway safety. Communication signals and the lines and tracks are two main equipment factors affecting the heavy haul railway safety, that the external social environment and natural environment have a relatively larger impact on the safety of heavy haul railway, and that safety training and safety rewards and punishments are two main management factors affecting the heavy haul railway safety.

Key words: heavy load railway, rough set, factor, weight analysis, human-equipment-environment-management