中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 19-24.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.004

• 安全系统学 • 上一篇    下一篇

QGA-RFR模型在导水裂隙带高度预测中的应用

邵良杉 教授, 周玉   

  1. 辽宁工程技术大学 系统工程研究所, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125100
  • 收稿日期:2017-12-10 修回日期:2018-02-05 出版日期:2018-03-28 发布日期:2020-11-09
  • 作者简介:邵良杉 (1961—),男,辽宁凌源人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事矿业系统工程、数据挖掘等方面的科研与教学工作。E-mail:lntushao@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(71371091,7177111); 辽宁省社会规划项目(L14BTJ004)。

Application of QGA-RFR model in prediction of height of water flowing fractured zone

SHAO Liangshan, ZHOU Yu   

  1. System Engineering Institute,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125100,China
  • Received:2017-12-10 Revised:2018-02-05 Online:2018-03-28 Published:2020-11-09

摘要: 为准确预测矿井顶板导水裂隙带高度,用随机森林回归算法(RFR)筛选出开采工作面导水裂隙带高度主要影响因素;借助量子遗传算法(QGA)优化RFR中分裂属性特征值和决策树棵数2个关键参数,建立基于QGA-RFR的导水裂隙带高度预测模型;将实测的124组导水裂隙带相关数据代入模型进行训练和预测,并将预测结果与GA-RFR、RFR、BP和支持向量机(SVM)等模型预测结果对比。结果表明:QGA-RFR模型的最优参数组合为(5,350),该参数下模型预测误差值仅为0.113 8;与GA-RFR、RFR、BP和SVM等模型相比,QGA-RFR模型具有更小的平均绝对百分比误差值(0.037 63)、均方根误差值(2.129)和最大相对误差值(0.055 06),验证了QGA-RFR模型的拟合效果更优。

关键词: 导水裂隙带高度, 随机森林回归算法(RFR), 量子遗传算法(QGA), QGA-RFR模型, 支持向量机(SVM), 开采工作面

Abstract: To predict the height of the water flowing fractured zone of the mine roof accurately, the RFR algorithm was applied to determine main factors of the height of water flowing fractured zone in mining face. With the help of QGA, the most superior combination of two key parameters-splitting attribute value and the decision tree number-in RFR was ensured, and a prediction model based on QGA-RFR was built. The 124 groups of water flowing fractured zone measured data were brought into the QGA-RFR model for training and prediction, and a prediction result comparison was made between the model and other models like GA-RFR, RFR, BP and SVM, etc. The experimental results show that the most superior combination of two parameters for the QGA-RFR model is (5,350), the prediction error under the parameters is only 0.113 8, that compared with GA-RFR, RFR, BP and SVM model, the QGA-RFR model have a smaller value of mean absolute percentage error (0.037 63), mean square error (2.129) and the maximum relative error value (0.055 06), which reveal the QGA-RFR model have a better fitting effect.

Key words: height of water flowing fractured zone, random forest regression algorithm(RFR), quantum genetic algorithm(QGA), QGA-RFR model, support vector machine(SVM), mining face

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