引入恐慌因素的元胞自动机应急疏散模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.04.022

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 148-154.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.04.022

引入恐慌因素的元胞自动机应急疏散模型

凤四海¹^,²(), 王志杰¹^,², 邓捷¹^,², 辛耀娇¹^,², 贺元骅¹^,²

¹ 中国民用航空飞行学院民航安全工程学院,四川广汉 618307
² 中国民用航空飞行学院民机火灾科学与安全工程四川省重点实验室,四川广汉 618307

收稿日期:2022-01-11 修回日期:2022-03-14 出版日期:2022-04-28 发布日期:2022-10-28
作者简介:
凤四海 (1976—),男,安徽芜湖人,博士,教授,主要从事民航安全管理、应急管理、航空人因等方面的研究。E-mail: fengshvictor@aliyun.com。
贺元骅, 教授。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0810600); 民航教育人才类项目(20J212)

Cellular automata model for emergency evacuation considering panic factor

FENG Sihai¹^,²(), WANG Zhijie¹^,², DENG Jie¹^,², XIN Yaojiao¹^,², HE Yuanhua¹^,²

¹ College of Civil Aviation Safety Engineering, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China
² Civil Aircraft Fire Science and Safety Engineering Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China

Received:2022-01-11 Revised:2022-03-14 Online:2022-04-28 Published:2022-10-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确恐慌情绪对人员疏散进程的影响,采用基于热力学原理的情绪传染模型与元胞自动机疏散模型相结合的方法,模拟疏散人群中的恐慌情绪感染。该模型引入疏散人员的个体差异性和中心扩散的危险环境,通过量化恐慌情绪值并将其融入行人的疏散决策,模拟不同危险环境下人群的疏散过程。结果表明:恐慌情绪主要作用于靠近危险场域的行人,并随着恐慌情绪感染扩大影响范围,导致整体疏散效率下降;与未考虑恐慌模型相比,在较低的初始人群密度下,恐慌情绪会延长疏散时间,但初始人群密度增大到一定程度时,不再延长疏散时间,而会导致更多被困人员;危险场域扩散速度的增加会加速恐慌的传播,致使大规模恐慌人群更早地出现。

关键词: 恐慌情绪, 元胞自动机, 应急疏散, 情绪感染, 疏散模型

Abstract:

In order to clarify influence of panic on evacuation process, contagion of panic emotion in evacuation crowd was simulated by using a method that combined cellular automata evacuation model and emotional contagion model based on thermodynamics. With consideration given to the individual difference of evacuees and dangerous environment, evacuation process of crowd in different environment was simulated by quantifying panic emotion values and integrating them into evacuation decision of pedestrians. The results show that panic emotion mainly affects pedestrians near dangerous area and its influence scope will expand along with its contagion, thus decreasing overall evacuation efficiency. Compared with the model which doesn't consider panic factor, for the proposed model, panic will prolong evacuation time in the case of low initial population density, but when the density increases to a certain extent, evacuation time will no longer be prolonged while more people will be trapped. Increasing diffusion speed of risk areas will speed up spread of panic, causing earlier occurrence of large-scale panic crowd.

Key words: panic emotion, cellular automata, emergency evacuation, emotional contagion, evacuation model

凤四海, 王志杰, 邓捷, 辛耀娇, 贺元骅. 引入恐慌因素的元胞自动机应急疏散模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 148-154.

FENG Sihai, WANG Zhijie, DENG Jie, XIN Yaojiao, HE Yuanhua. Cellular automata model for emergency evacuation considering panic factor[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(4): 148-154.

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人格特质	恐慌情绪表达力α	恐慌情绪接受力β	方差σ
激励型	0.9	0.8	0.05
同情型	0.3	0.8	0.05
率真型	0.7	0.2	0.05
冷漠型	0.3	0.2	0.05

心理状态	P
平静状态	0
适度紧张状态	(0~0.7)
恐慌混乱状态	≥0.7

个体参数	含义
β_i	个体i对他人恐慌情绪的接受力
α_j	个体j向他人传递恐慌情绪的表达力
η_ij	接受个体i与传递个体j之间的信道强度

引入恐慌因素的元胞自动机应急疏散模型

Cellular automata model for emergency evacuation considering panic factor

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