基于CA的建筑工人不安全行为传染机制

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.01.0183

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为抑制建筑工人间不安全行为的传染,借鉴易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR)模型,引入行为跟随者、行为接触者、不安全行为传染者和安全行为者4类行为主体,描述建筑工人不安全行为传染过程;考虑到工人群体关系的复杂性,提出小世界网络上的元胞自动机(CA)传染模型,刻画不同行为主体行为状态转化规则;运用数值仿真方法,分析行为跟随方式、不安全行为传染者分布模式与抑制率对不安全行为传染的影响。结果表明:行为跟随者的不同跟随方式、不安全行为传染者的不同分布模式对不安全行为传染效果具有显著影响,抑制率与不安全行为传染效果负向相关,其中,综合跟随方式下的行为传染效果最为显著;小群体分散分布模式极大地扩大和强化不安全行为传染者的传染范围与能力;适度的抑制性措施能够有效抑制不安全行为传染。

关键词: 元胞自动机(CA), 建筑工人, 不安全行为, 行为传染, 传染网络

Abstract:

In order to restrain the contagion of unsafe behavior among construction workers, the susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model was used to describe the infection process of unsafe behavior among construction workers by introducing four types of behavior subjects : behavior followers, behavior contacts, unsafe behavior infectors and safety actors. Considering the complexity of workers' group relations, a CA contagion model in a small-world network was proposed to characterize the transformation rules of different actors. By using numerical simulation method, the influence of behavior following mode, distribution pattern of unsafe behavior infectors and inhibition rate on unsafe behavior infection was analyzed. The results show that the different follow-up modes of behavior followers and the different distribution modes of unsafe behavior infectors have a significant influence on the contagion performance of unsafe behavior. The inhibition rate is negatively correlated with the contagion effect of unsafe behavior. Among them, the behavioral contagion effect under the comprehensive follow-up mode performance is the most significant. The decentralized distribution pattern of small groups greatly expands and strengthens the scope and ability of the infectors of unsafe behaviors; moderate inhibitory measures can effectively inhibit the contagion of unsafe behavior.

Key words: cellular automata(CA), construction workers, unsafe behavior, behavioral contagion, contagion network

刘素霞, 唐帅帅. 基于CA的建筑工人不安全行为传染机制[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(1): 24-31.

LIU Suxia, TANG Shuaishuai. Research on contagion mechanism of unsafe behavior of construction workers based on CA[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(1): 24-31.

图/表 7

图1

图2

图3

表1

试验初始参数及其赋值规则

变量/ 参数	含义解释	取值	赋值规则
$S (0)$	初始时刻行为跟随者比例	0.95	文献[15]
$I (0)$	初始时刻不安全行为传染者比例	0.04	文献[15]
$R (0)$	初始时刻安全行为者比例	0.01	文献[15]
$g v (i, j)$	行为跟随者的从众倾向	0~1	正态分布
$p v (i, j)$	不安全行为传染者的传染能力	0~1	正态分布
$I v (i, j)$	传染率	0~1	正态分布
$R v (i, j)$	抑制率	0~1	正态分布

表1

图4

图5

图6

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