中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 47-54.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.10.007

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于ISM-24Model的重大铁路事故组织致因研究

左博睿1,2, 帅斌**1,2 教授, 黄文成1,2   

  1. 1 西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,四川 成都 611756;
    2 综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室, 四川 成都 611756
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-27 修回日期:2020-09-18 出版日期:2020-10-28 发布日期:2021-07-15
  • 通讯作者: **帅 斌(1967—),男,四川乐山人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事危险品运输系统评价、运输安全管理等方面研究。E-mail: shuaibin@home.Swjtu.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:左博睿 (1996—),男,四川乐山人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为运输安全、事故致因理论。 E-mail:1602132743@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(71173177);国家铁路局科技计划项目(KF2013-020,KF2014-041);西南交通大学研究生创新实验实践项目(YC201507103);西南交通大学研究生学术培养提升计划(跨学科创新培育)专题项目(2018KXK04)。

Research on deep organizational cause analysis of serious railway accidents based on ISM-24Model

ZUO Borui1,2, SHUAI Bin1,2, HUANG Wencheng1,2   

  1. 1 School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China;
    2 National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China
  • Received:2020-07-27 Revised:2020-09-18 Online:2020-10-28 Published:2021-07-15

摘要: 为探究重大铁路事故深度组织致因机制,结合24Model与解释结构模型(ISM),构建ISM-24Model事故深度组织致因分析框架。首先,基于24Model致因识别程序识别个人及组织因素,然后结合集成决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)与ISM法构建深度组织致因综合影响矩阵,计算其可达矩阵并最终获取组织因素间的相对重要程度及递阶结构。以台铁“10·21”事故为例进行实证研究,框架共识别出不安全的个人因素31项,组织因素14项。组织因素影响关系及递阶结构的分析结果表明:对安全投入认识不足是导致该事故发生的组织核心因素,而安全培训制度为受到不良影响最集中的组织因素;采取多元化措施整改缺失的组织因素可从根源上避免事故的再次发生;ISM-24Model可有效探讨事故中的深度组织致因作用规律,是24Model的有益补充。

关键词: 解释结构模型(ISM), 24Model, 重大铁路事故, 深度组织致因, 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL), 台铁“10·21”事故

Abstract: In order to explore deep organizational cause mechanism for serious railway accidents, an ISM-24Model analysis framework was built by integrating 24Model and ISM. Firstly, individual and organizational factors were identified following 24Model logic recognition procedure. Then, a comprehensive influence matrix of organizational factors based on ISM method combined with DEMATEL was established to calculate reachability matrix, and relative importance and hierarchical structure among organizational factors were obtained. Finally, with "10·21" accident of Taiwan Railway as an example, 33 unsafe personal factors and 14 organizational factors were identified in the framework. The analysis results of influence relationship and hierarchical structure of organizational factors show that lack of understanding of safety input is a core organizational factor that leads to accidents, while safety training system is the most centralized one that is affected by adverse effects. Therefore, taking diversified measures to rectify missing organizational factors can avoid recurrence of accidents from root. The conclusion shows that ISM-24Model is an effective supplement to 24Model as it can effectively explore law of organizational causes in accidents.

Key words: interpretive structural model (ISM), 24Model, serious railway accidents, deep organizational cause, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL), “10·21” Taiwan railway accident

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