N-K model based analysis of risk coupling in civil aviation maintenance unsafe events

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.02.008

Abstract

Abstract: For the sake of exploring the risk coupling relationships in the civil aviation maintenance unsafe events, the mechanism of risk coupling development in the maintenance unsafe events was examined from the aspects of man, machine, environment and management. Considering the uncertainty and complexity, a risk coupling measurement model for maintenance unsafe events was built by utilizing the complex network N-K model. The model was used to measure the risk coupling degrees of 643 maintenance unsafe events of an airline from 2013 to 2016. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the occurrence possibilities of maintenance unsafe events and the risk coupling factors, and that the major causes of civil aviation maintenance unsafe events are the defects in the management.

Key words: maintenance, unsafe events, risk coupling, N-K model, coupling mechanism

CLC Number:

X949

CHEN Yonggang, XIONG Shenghua, HE Qiang, ZHAN Tingwen. N-K model based analysis of risk coupling in civil aviation maintenance unsafe events[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(2): 104-109.

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