Business interruption risk analysis based on fuzzy BN: a case study of flood disaster

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001

Abstract

Abstract: In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms' inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, 183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since 2008 were analyzed, and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed. FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process. The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption. The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5% under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption.

Key words: Bayesian network(BN), fuzzy set theory(FST), enterprise, business interruption, sensitivity analysis

CLC Number:

X915.5

SONG Yinghua, MA Lianlong, YANG Lijiao, JIANG Xinyu. Business interruption risk analysis based on fuzzy BN: a case study of flood disaster[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(6): 1-6.

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