Research on causation of railway accidents based on complex network theory

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.S1.021

Abstract

Abstract: In order to determine the relationship between various factors leading to railway accidents, and prevent railway accidents,263 reports of Chinese railway accidents were collected. Based on the characteristics of these railway accidents, combined with the existing accident causal classification model and expert opinions, 43 influencing factors were identified from four aspects,including the act of man, mechanical equipment, environment and management. Based on the correlation coefficient of Pearson, the correlation between factors was analyzed, and the interrelationship between 268 kinds of influencing factors were established. A network of railway accident causation factors was established. The whole network structure was analyzed by using complex network indicators, such as degree and degree distribution, network diameter and average path length, clustering coefficient and betweenness centrality. And the key factors that need to prevent and control were determined. The results show that management factors and human factors are the most likely to cause railway accidents. At the same time, sub-factors such as illegal operation, communication failure, mechanical failure of components have great influence on railway safety operation.

Key words: railway accidents, influencing factors, Pearson correlation coefficient, network of causation factors, complex network

CLC Number:

X928.2

HUA Lingling, ZHENG Wei. Research on causation of railway accidents based on complex network theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(S1): 114-119.

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