Abstract: Based on the real and reliable accident data collected statistically, related mathematical methods and accident prediction models, an accident prediction mathematical model is proposed and built. Meanwhile, the concrete method and steps, and the principles and rules followed during application are given. Based on the casualty data of various types of accidents in recent 18 years, an accident prediction mathematical model is established, and the related accident data in the future is predicted. Finally, the accident trend in China is discussed according to the predication data.