Abstract:

To enhance the operational safety of large manned eVTOL aircraft in low-altitude tourism scenarios in mountainous scenic areas, this study used Gupo Mountain in Hezhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as the operational context and the EHang EH216-S unmanned aerial vehicle as an example. Based on risk management theory and the specific conditions of this aircraft, the study identified and analyzed its operational risks. First, through literature review and analogical reasoning, the operational risks of the eVTOL aircraft were identified from four aspects: human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, and management factors. Then, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process were integrated into the BN model to conduct risk assessment. Finally, the posterior probabilities of accident causation were calculated using the BN model. The results indicate that, in the event of a control failure, navigation failure is the primary cause, with an occurrence probability of 79.41%. A fault in the command and control link is the main reason for navigation failure, with a probability of 97.02%. The application of multiple-channel encryption technology and complex high-speed frequency hopping techniques, along with a data link interference prediction model and anti-jamming communication strategies, can reduce the operational risks associated with eVTOL.

Key words: mountainous scenic area, electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, operational risk, Bayesian network (BN), low-altitude tourism, command and control link