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    Research on acceptable criteria for individual and societal risks of urban gas pipeline
    ZHANG Peng, XIAO Bowen, SONG Wenqi, LIU Wei
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (10): 1-7.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.10.2157
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    In respond to the higher requirement for clean energy put forward by the 14th Five-Year plan, the risk acceptable criteria of urban gas pipeline were studied from the perspective of life risk, in order to make the safety management level of urban gas pipeline can meet the needs of development. The accident data of 2012-2021 were counted by combining average individual risk (AIR) method with ALARP criterion, and the risk acceptable criteria of the previous five-year cycle were used for analysis and comparison. The reference value of the risk acceptable criteria of the next five-year cycle was predicted by adopting the risk acceptable criteria of the previous five-year cycle, and the reference value of the acceptable criteria of individual risk from 2022 to 2026 was obtained. According to the five-year cycle prediction method discussed in the individual risk acceptable criteria study, the F-N curve method was used to calculate the number of deaths per accident and annual pipeline length from 2017 to 2021, and the societal risk acceptable criteria was determined. The study shows that the risk level of 1.017 13×10-7 is the boundary of the unacceptable risk area and ALARP area, and the risk level of 2.034 27×10-7 is the boundary of ALARP area and acceptable risk area. In the societal risk study, the intolerable line and the negligible line are determined, and the risk region is determined according to the ALARP criterion.

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    Exploration on "combat-oriented" personnel training of safety engineering specialty
    ZHU Jianfang, ZHANG Ruixin, ZHANG Licong, SONG Fumei
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (8): 1-7.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.08.0268
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    In order to cultivate students' practical ability and shorten their job adaptation time, six professional ability objectives, such as detection and inspection, hazard identification and evaluation, were summarized according to the specific work content of safety engineering professional technicians. Accordingly, six practical teaching modules were constructed. A total of 28 practical teaching projects were designed under the teaching module, which was sourced from actual job content. These projects were summarized into 10 teaching links according to the knowledge system, which constituted the practical teaching system of safety engineering specialty. To meet the practical requirements of these teaching projects and fully tap the internal and external resources to build a teaching environment that is similar to practical teaching, an "11+1+2" practical teaching base was established. Based on characteristics of teaching staffs, the methods to enhance the practical teaching ability of professional teachers were given. The results show that practical talent cultivation is an effective way to enhance students' practical skills, which requires the support of teaching conditions and teaching environments.

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    Training system study on fire engineering professional education in college
    LU Xinxiao, WANG Haiyan, WU Bing, CHEN Bin
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (7): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.2164
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    In order to break through the construction deficiencies of college fire engineering education system, the professional education curriculum system of fire engineering was put forward based on the outcome-oriented concept. Firstly, the reversal design was applied on the training plan, course content and method. The curriculum system focused on on four levels of fire protection standard, prevention, fire fighting and evaluation. Then, the innovation and entrepreneurship education of fire engineering was strengthened, and a fire engineering undergraduate full-course total tutorial system was established as the starting point of innovation. To stimulate the innovative thinking and ability of students, the whole chain innovation training system was proposed as the scientific research carrier. Finally, three core kernel modules of pre-disaster perception, fire engineering disaster relief and post-disaster treatment, were constructed. A professional laboratory centered on five typical fire fighting systems was established to present the real fire response and disaster relief scenarios, which undertook the function of fire engineering course experiment, design and part of internship. The results indicate that the training system of outcome-oriented fire engineering professional education clarifies the curriculum logic of professional education. Emphasis is placed on hierarchical and progressive cultivation and the exploration and guidance on the hot field of fire engineering. It clarifies the structural correlation of the professional laboratory system and its supporting role in the practical education. The training system can provide some reference for the talent cultivation of fire rescue team and the future development of fire engineering discipline.

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    Investigation of safety & security attributes
    WU Chao
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0926
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    The words safety & security (simplified as SS) are the most basic terms of SS discipline. Only by clarifying SS characteristics, connotation, extension and development timely can we better understand SS science and study its development law. Therefore, using the methods of historical analysis and logical thinking and reasoning, this paper expounded the dimension and complexity of SS, the specialty and popularity of SS, the ontology and epistemology of SS, the natural and social attributes of SS, and the classification method of SS definitions. Then the nature and characteristics of the discipline of SS science were inferred. The research conclusions are as follows: discussing SS issues requires a common language environment. The SS goes beyond the scope of technological terminology. Since SS is a reflection of human understanding, it is difficult for SS issues research to enter the ontological level. The natural and social characteristics of human beings determine that SS has dual attributes of nature and society, and the eternal nature of contradictions, which leads to the complexity of SS issues and the diversity of its definitions. The paradigm of giving SS definition through "preset + SS" can better express the scope and margin of SS.

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    Comparative analysis study of STPA and 24Model
    SONG Wei, FU Gui
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1172
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    In order to improve and develop the accident causation theory, the four aspects of STPA and 24Model, the underlying theory, relevant definitions, analysis process and analysis difficulty, were compared and analyzed, and applied to different cases respectively. The results of the study show that both models have a strong theoretical foundation. The research object of STPA is the loss of system. It performed better at system interaction study, but the complexity is high and the research error is large, so it is more suitable for single-accident analysis. In contrast, the research object of 24Model is event in the organization. The classification of accident causes is clearer and more universal. The model is simple, the research error is small, and it is commonly used for both single-accident and multi-accident analysis. Both methods are of good extensibility. In terms of application, STPA is clear on the connection between hazards and losses. However, this method is complex and subjective on accident causation, which also lacks research on inter-organizational interactions. In contrast, 24Model is more comprehensive and clearer, but it fails in the analysis of inter-organizational interaction and design defects.

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    Piezoelectric safety & security management and its model
    WANG Bing, WANG Yuanjie, ZHANG Zhihong
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (9): 1-9.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.0879
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    In order to innovate the safety & security management paradigm and further enrich the safety & security management theories, the research work of piezoelectric safety & security management was carried out based on the piezoelectric theory and safety & security management theory. Firstly, the inspiration of piezoelectric theory for safety & security management was analyzed, the connotation of piezoelectric safety & security management was explored, and the piezoelectric safety & security management conceptual model was proposed. On this basis, the model for piezoelectric safety & security management was constructed and explained by combining the whole life cycle theory of safety & security management. Finally, the characteristics of piezoelectric safety & security management were described. The results show that, piezoelectric safety & security management is a new paradigm, which can take targeted measures to meet the system's safety & security needs according to the changes of system's safety & security status in a certain time and space. Moreover, piezoelectric safety & security management includes two safety & security management modes (namely, normal safety & security management and non-normal safety & security management), and covers three safety & security management behaviors (namely, safety & security risk prevention and control, emergency response, as well as adjustment and optimization).

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    Intelligent warning of risk during maintenance operations based on deep learning
    WANG Jinjiang, GUAN Pengting, CHEN Zhuo, GE Weifeng, JU Qian
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (10): 16-22.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.10.1744
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    In order to improve the safety of the inspection and maintenance operation process in refining and chemical enterprises, a deep learning-based intelligent risk identification model was constructed by using the target detection technology. Firstly, a dynamic risk assessment model was established by combining the BN and fuzzy set theory. Secondly, a hierarchical dynamic early warning method was adopted to realize the intelligent monitoring and warning of the risk elements of the overhauling operation process; then the compressor overhauling operation process was taken as an example to identify the operation process risks by means of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and hazard analysis of operation conditions, and then the intelligent identification model of risk based on deep learning was used for on-site monitoring of the operation process and identification of risk. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment of the operation process was carried out by using the method of combining the BN and the fuzzy set theory, and the grading warning method was used to realize intelligent monitoring and early warning of the risk of the operation process. The results show that the method effectively identify the risk factors in the compressor overhauling operation process, with an identification accuracy rate of 93%. Based on this, a dynamic risk assessment is carried out. When the probability of the event changed and exceeded the corresponding warning thresholds, alarms are issued based on the risk level to realize the intelligent monitoring of the risk elements.

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    A new concept model of safety culture and its evaluation application
    CHEN Weijiong, HAN Weijia, LI Xin, KANG Yutao, JIAO Yu, FENG Xiang
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 11-19.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1915
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    In order to improve the level of safety culture construction in the shipbuilding industry, based on the definition of safety culture and objective reality, a new concept model of safety culture (SV-MMEMS) was proposed by integrating safety values (SV) and man-machine-environment-management system (MMEMS) model. Based on the five dimensions of safety values, man, machine, environment, and management of this model, a survey was conducted on the W shipbuilding enterprise. After data processing, such as project analysis, reliability analysis, validity testing, and factor analysis, a safety culture evaluation index system for the shipbuilding industry was constructed, consisting of five dimensions, 14 first-level indicators, and 33 second-level indicators. A second-order confirmation factor analysis model for safety culture, as well as a causal path analysis model among safety culture influencing factors, was constructed using AMOS. The findings demonstrated a favorable interaction relationship between the five elements, with "SV" acting as the nucleus and the path conefficients of each element in "MMEM", which were, respectively, 0.766, 0.553, 0.720, and 0.839. The ratio is 26.6%, 19.2%, 25.0%, and 29.2% after standardization, and organizational management elements were determined to have the biggest influence on the development of W shipping enterprise's safety culture. SV-MMEMS has considerable development and application prospects in the construction and evaluation of safety culture in enterprises and organizations.

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    Study on classification of coal mine accident causes based on NLP
    ZHANG Jiangshi, LI Yongtun, MAO Xiangning, HU Xinyue, WANG Ziyi
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 20-26.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1416
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    In order to improve the efficiency of analyzing and processing coal mine accident text effectively, NLP and accident cause models were used for building an automatic classification framework of accident cause. Based on 24Model, 87 typical mine accident investigation reports were analyzed, and a framework of mine accident cause classifications was obtained. A corpus was constructed for each type of accident cause constructed. The NLP was used for processing each type of cause text of the corpus and training the fastText model to realize the automatic recognition and classification of accident cause text. The method proposed was compared with TextCNN and the other two classical models. The results show that a total of 21 types of accident causes and 6 684 training corpus are obtained, the accuracy of fastText after training can reach 98.92%, and the comprehensive performance is better than the other three methods. The accident text mining system is developed based on 24Model and NLP, which can analyze and process the accident text information quickly and further detail the cause of the accident investigation report, which is convenient for the case study and statistical analysis.

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    Risk zoo(II): origin, evolution and prospects of risk metaphor theory
    TONG Ruipeng, HU Xiangyang, YIN Xuechen, GUO Yu
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (10): 8-15.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.10.1039
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    The risk metaphor hypothesis has slowly gained traction in risk science at the start of the 21st Century. This paper uses literature research to comprehensively examine and sort out the historical tracing and history of risk metaphor theory, investigate the development status, and evolution of risk metaphor theory, and explore the future prospects of risk metaphor research. The findings demonstrate that risk metaphor theory has been researched extensively, and some progress has been made in three areas: risk event ontology, risk management attitude, and risk evolution mechanism metaphor. Risk metaphor theory is a cross-product of risk management science and cognitive language science, and it has been developed for more than ten years. There are still some issues, nevertheless, in that regard: the study of metaphors for high probability risk occurrences with extreme impact needs to be sufficiently in-depth, attention is not given to lower impact risk events, etc. Risk metaphor theories and models exhibit significant inconsistency and a lack of rigor in key ideas. Given a number of intricate issues, it is imperative to further develop risk metaphor theory.

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    A risk assessment method of driving behavior considering severity of safety-critical events and individual heterogeneity
    ZHANG Hui, LIU Yongjie, WU Chaozhong, DING Naikan, ZHANG Qi, XIAO Yiying
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (7): 24-31.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1120
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    Aiming at the lack of risk degree measurement and insufficient consideration of individual differences in the driving behavior risk assessment method, the natural driving experimental data of 15 subjects were collected, and the paired T-test and DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise) clustering were used to obtain the deviation of the indicator from the normal state in driving safety events and driver risk propensity level. The indicators were selected to quantify the severity of a single driving safety event, and the driving risk weights were corrected to construct a driving behavior risk assessment method that considered the severity of driving events and individual differences. The validity of the model was verified by using time head (TH). The results show that speed standard deviation, speed range and mean and maximum value of acceleration are more important for driving risk assessment. The risk score obtained by the optimized evaluation methods ranges from [21,42.6], with a mean value of 32.93 and a standard deviation of 6.62. The driving behavior risk score in this study is closer to the actual situation than the traditional score. The above indicators can be used to evaluate the comprehensive driving behavior risk and improve the accuracy of driving risk identification.

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    Safety risk assessment of civil aviation air parking events based on DBN
    CHEN Fang, CUI Qingmin, XIANG Qianqiu
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (7): 16-23.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1884
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    In order to explore the impact and evolution of organizational and human factors on IFSD events of engine and to evaluate the risk level of airline IFSD events, a risk assessment model was built for civil aviation IFSD based on DBN. Firstly, the active and passive methods were used to identify the organizational and human factors that affected the occurrence of IFSD. Secondly, Pythagorean fuzzy DEMATEL was used to explore the causal relationship between risk factors. Then, the DBN of civil aviation IFSD was constructed based on the obtained causal relationship, and the parameters were obtained based on statistical analysis and expert experience. The occurrence probability of IFSD events was obtained through GeNle probability reasoning. Finally, the CFM56-5B engine of S Airlines was taken as an example to conduct the safety risk assessment of IFSD events. The results indicate that the probability of air stop of CFM56-5B engine of S Airlines from 2020 to 2021 is 1.260×10-6 and 1.352×10-6, respectively. The main reason for the change in safety risks of civil aviation IFSD events is that the decrease in "resource investment" leads to the decrease in the effectiveness of "education and training", which in turn affects "work style awareness" and "cooperation and communication".

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    Construction and application of urban emergency preparedness capability assessment index system
    JIANG Jun, CHEN Yan, HE Gangfeng, GAO Yueyi, FENG Jingyu, HE Haibo
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (6): 190-197.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2446
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    In order to objectively assess urban emergency preparedness, and address the issues of poor data collection standardization and strong subjectivity in the evaluation of urban emergency preparedness capacity in the past, research on the construction and application of assessment index system was conducted. Firstly, the establishment of the evaluation index pool was based on the provisions of the Emergency Response Law, the requirements for the safe development of urban construction, and the content of the provincial and municipal "14th Five Year Plan" emergency system construction plan. It also drew on the experience of the disaster resilience score card for cities issued by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Then, based on the statistical analysis of the current research results of emergency preparedness capacity in 36 regions, a 2-level evaluation system and grading criteria for responding to natural disasters and accident disasters, including 6 first-level indicators and 38 second-level indicators, were constructed. The evaluation model had been applied in a county-level City A in Jiangsu Province. The results show that the constructed "6-38" system has good adaptability to the characterization of urban emergency preparedness capacity, and the evaluation model can effectively identify the shortcomings of urban emergency capacity. It is shown that the quantitative characterization rate of the constructed "6-38" evaluation system indicators exceeds 80%. The evaluation results of City A are relatively consistent with its actual situation, which objectively reflects the overall level of emergency preparedness. Therefore, it indicates that the model is feasible and effective.

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    Logic, challenges and strategies of overall energy development and security
    XU Xiaomin
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 9-16.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2506
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    In order to improve the current energy development dilemma, the typical patterns of foreign energy development and security and the paradigm of China's energy development and security in the new era were sorted out from the current theme of international energy development environment. Future strategic orientation was studied, and current energy development strategies are explored. The results show that the imbalance between energy production and consumption determines that China's energy development faces challenges such as high external dependence, low cleanliness, high security risks, weak scientific and technological innovation capacity, and lack of international energy dominance and discourse. From the perspective of medium and long-term development strategy, China should take energy transformation, break through energy blockade and achieve energy independence as the strategic direction, optimize energy supply structure, strengthen international energy interconnection and enhance international energy discourse, take new energy revolution as an important initiative, rely on initiatives such as clean coal, stable oil and increased gas, vigorously develop new energy strategy, accelerate energy innovation drive and seek energy independence.

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    HC-GC human factors analysis model for construction engineering safety accidents caused by heavy rainfall
    CHEN Wei, TIAN Yishuai, ZENG Weihua, GUO Daoyuan, ZHAO Zhuoya
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (8): 15-23.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.08.1948
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    In order to reduce the incidence of construction engineering safety accidents caused by heavy rainfall and effectively solve the complex problem of the human factor analysis of such safety accidents, an optimization method of human factor analysis model was proposed. Based on HFACS, an HFACS-CPHRA, including 6 layers and 24 factors, was established. Then GA-CARMA were jointly used to analyze the association of human causes, and draw the chain of human causes of accidents. 150 typical cases of construction accidents caused by heavy rainfall were selected for model verification and application analysis. The results show that the optimized HC-GC model has better performance and efficiency. In the accident human causation chain, the insufficient government department in charge of safety supervision and lack of enterprise safety culture are the deep factor. Site in violation of regulation and security management loophole are the main connection factor, low level of skills and illegal will further strengthen the accident emergency disposition of negative feedback, untimely incident reporting and response is the most direct reason for the expansion and spread of construction engineering accidents caused by heavy rainfall.

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    Construction safety risk analysis of bridge girder-erecting machine based on complex network integrating N-K model
    WANG Haiying, CHU Lin, XU Jian
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (9): 10-17.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.1560
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    To identify the critical causes and paths of bridge girder-erecting machine accidents in construction engineering, a risk factor analysis method based on complex network combined with N-K model was proposed. Firstly, the cases database of bridge erecting machine accidents between 2000-2022 was established, and the accident causes of bridge girder-erecting machine were classified into four first-level risk factors and twenty-four second-level risk factors by analyzing the cause of the accidents. Then, a complex network model with major accident types and the second-level risk factors as nodes and their correlations as edges was established, and the closeness centrality and betweenness centrality of risk factor nodes were calculated. Finally, the N-K model was developed for the first-level risk factor coupling analysis, and the centrality of the risk factor nodes was optimized by using the coupled interactive information. Through the accessibility analysis of risk factors and global main path analysis, 7 key causes and 7 key links of bridge machine accidents were obtained respectively. The results show that the weak management of construction unit and the insufficient safety production inspection have the high value of closeness centrality and betweenness centrality. The biggest risk is from the path of duty dereliction of supervision unit→the weak management of construction unit→the insufficient safety production critical. So, all these key causes and paths can be taken as the focus of safety control during the construction of bridge girder-erecting machine. The key cause of bridge girder-erecting machine construction safety obtained by complex network integrating with N-K model is consistent with the conclusion of accident investigation, and the risk identification of girder-erecting machine construction safety accident is accurately realized.

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    Study on influence of informal group cohesion on miners' unsafe behavior
    LI Naiwen, FANG Xiaokai, NIU Lixia
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (7): 9-15.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.2031
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    In order to analyze the mechanism of informal group cohesion on miners' unsafe behaviors, safety psychological capital and inner safety impetus were introduced to construct a chain mediation model. Based on the four hypotheses proposed in the literature review, a structured questionnaire was made using four scales of informal group cohesion, safety psychological capital, inner safety impetus and unsafe behavior. 516 valid samples of miners were retained and quantitatively studied after screening. The chain mediation model was validated by sample data analysis and mediating effect test. The results show that informal group cohesion can not only directly affect miners' unsafe behavior, but also indirectly affect miners' unsafe behavior through the independent mediating role of safety psychological capital and inner safety impetus and the chain mediating role of safety psychological capital and inner safety impetus. Enhancing informal group cohesion and improving safety psychological capital and inner safety impetus can effectively reduce the frequency of miners' unsafe behavior and prevent accidents.

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    Prediction model of safety competency of construction workers based on machine learning
    ZHAO Wei, LI Shuquan
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (7): 51-57.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1630
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    In order to explore the mechanism and key influencing factors of the safety competency of construction workers, this study established a multi-indicator dataset based on organizational network and individual behavior, referring to social capital and behavioral motivation theory. A safety competency indicator system was constructed based on previous scales, and data were obtained from 457 construction workers in China through a questionnaire survey. The multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method based on the entropy weight and coefficient of variation method was used to calculate and screen the indicators. Then, five machine learning methods, such as GBDT, were used to establish regression models, respectively. The grid search method was used for hyperparameter optimization to improve the prediction ability of the model. The results show that the ensemble learning method is superior to the traditional machine learning method, and the GBDT algorithm has the best fitting performance. The optimized dataset can improve the prediction accuracy of the model. The safety participation and the structural and cognitive dimension of social capital significantly affect the construction workers' safety competency. In addition, their working experience and education level also have a correlation with their safety competency.

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    Application of blockchain technology in emergency management: hotspots, challenges and prospects
    FAN Zhongqi, DAI Lin
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (5): 182-190.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1377
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    To effectively clarify the research status of blockchain technology in the field of emergency management, by applying the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses review method, a SLR identified 58 topic-related studies from the Web of Science and China National Knowledge Internet journal database. This paper summarized the challenges faced by the application of blockchain technology in emergency management and suggestions for application of blockchain in emergency management were proposed, including perfecting policies and regulations on application of blockchain, fueling development of key blockchain technology, strengthening construction of professional talent team and enhancing coordination of blockchain and other technologies, etc. The results show that the application of blockchain in emergency management is in its early booming stage of development. Based on these 58 studies, three main themes were developed: data management (40.3%), efficiency improvement (40.3%) and concept development (19.4%). These 3 themes can be further subdivided into 8 sub-themes. It presents the need for improving technical functionality, efficient management of emergency data and data security, integrity and data sharing efficiency.

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    Analysis of functional systems of MASS based on STPA-FCM model
    QIN Tingrong, ZHOU Xinjie, HE Xingjie, CHEN Weijiong
    China Safety Science Journal    2023, 33 (8): 8-14.   DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.08.1571
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    In order to analyze the failure mechanism among the functional systems of MASS and improve its navigational safety, STPA and FCM methods were combined to establish a failure analysis model of the functional systems of MASS. The control/feedback relationships of functional systems were modeled using the STPA method. 27 control relationships and 43 feedback relationships were identified. Potential unsafe control action(UCA) and their key causes were analyzed. Then, the FCM method was used to further construct the cognitive map of interaction relationships among functional systems. Finally, the relative failure probability of each functional system would be determined when the FCM reaches its steady state. The results indicate that the core functional systems are the power system, virtual captain system, dynamic positioning system and collision avoidance system, and their stability values account for 7.66%, 7.62%, 7.47% and 7.14%, respectively. Priority should be given to ensuring its reliability, stability, and safety.

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