海洋立管失效风险因素分析方法及应用*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.007

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 47-53.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.007

海洋立管失效风险因素分析方法及应用^*

余建星^1,2 教授, 范海昭^1,2, 陈海成^1,2, 吴世博^1,2, 韩放^1,2, 刘少卿^1,2

1 天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072;
2 天津大学天津市港口与海洋工程重点实验室,天津 300072

收稿日期:2021-08-08 修回日期:2021-10-06 出版日期:2021-11-28
作者简介:余建星 (1958—),男,福建永春人,博士,教授,主要从事海洋工程风险评估与控制等方面的研究。E-mail:yjx2000@tju.edu.cn。
范海昭 (1997—),男,河北衡水人,硕士研究生,研究方向为海洋工程风险评估与控制。E-mail:fanhaizhao@tju.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家科技重大专项经费项目(2016ZX05057020);国家自然科学基金青年基金资助(51609169);国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(51879189);工信部项目(G18473CJ09)。

Risk factors analysis method of marine riser failure and its application

YU Jianxing^1,2, FAN Haizhao^1,2, CHEN Haicheng^1,2, WU Shibo^1,2, HAN Fang^1,2, LIU Shaoqing^1,2

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
2 Tianjin Key Laboratory of Port and Ocean Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Received:2021-08-08 Revised:2021-10-06 Published:2021-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高海洋立管安全风险评估的准确性和科学性,提出改进模糊网络分析法(FANP)。首先,介绍模糊理论和传统网络分析法(ANP)等基本理论;然后,改进传统FANP法,并建立海洋立管失效风险因素分析流程;最后,以南海某气田海洋立管为例进行分析,辨识海洋立管运行过程的风险因素,构建网络关系图,利用专家意见和改进的FANP法评估风险因素,确定风险因素的相对重要度。研究结果表明:维护误操作、运行误操作、施工误操作、制造误操作、监管不当等因素对海洋立管安全具有较高影响。

关键词: 海洋立管, 风险因素, 模糊网络分析法(FANP), 三角模糊数, 一致性检验

Abstract: In order to assess safety risks of marine risers more accurately and scientifically, an improved FANP was proposed. Firstly, basic theories of fuzzy theory and traditional analytic network process(ANP) were introduced. Then, traditional FANP method was improved and risk factor analysis process of marine riser failure was established. Finally, taking offshore riser of a gas field in the South China Sea as an example, risk factors in its operation process were identified, and a network diagram was constructed. Before expert opinions and improved FANP were used to evaluate risk factors and determine their relative importance. The results show that misoperation in maintenance, operation, construction, and manufacturing as well as improper supervision and other factors have higher influence on marine riser safety.

Key words: marine riser, risk factor, fuzzy analytic network process (FANP), triangular fuzzy number, consistency check

中图分类号:

X913.4

余建星, 范海昭, 陈海成, 吴世博, 韩放, 刘少卿. 海洋立管失效风险因素分析方法及应用^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(11): 47-53.

YU Jianxing, FAN Haizhao, CHEN Haicheng, WU Shibo, HAN Fang, LIU Shaoqing. Risk factors analysis method of marine riser failure and its application[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(11): 47-53.

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海洋立管失效风险因素分析方法及应用^*

Risk factors analysis method of marine riser failure and its application

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