中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 145-150.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.026

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

地铁列车非正常停车FMEA风险评估

朱江洪1,2, 李国芳1 副教授, 王睿1,2, 李延来1,2 教授   

  1. 1 西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,四川 成都 610031
    2 西南交通大学 综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川 成都 610031
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-19 修回日期:2016-12-24 出版日期:2017-02-28 发布日期:2020-11-22
  • 作者简介:朱江洪 (1986—),男,重庆人,博士研究生,研究方向为交通运输安全工程、决策理论与方法。E-mail: zhujianghong2018@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(71371156)。

FMEA based assessment of risk that metro train stops abnormally

ZHU Jianghong1,2, LI Guofang1, WANG Rui1,2, LI Yanlai1,2   

  1. 1 School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China
    2 National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China
  • Received:2016-10-19 Revised:2016-12-24 Online:2017-02-28 Published:2020-11-22

摘要: 为解决地铁列车运营系统安全风险评估中较少考虑专家行为偏好和风险因子权重部分已知的问题,提出基于前景理论(PT)和失效模式及影响分析(FMEA)的风险评估方法,并分为4个步骤,即由专家团队基于经验和历史数据确定风险因子权重取值范围。采用逼近理想解法(TOPSIS)构建风险因子权重优化模型,利用PT将评价矩阵转化前景值矩阵,并应用偏好序结构排序法(PROMETHEE)进行失效模式风险排序。以某市地铁列车非正常停车风险评估为例,验证该方法的有效性和可行性。结果表明,地铁列车非正常停车失效模式风险排序前3位的是突发事件、异物入侵、人的干扰,这与实际情况相符。

关键词: 前景理论(PT), 失效模式及影响分析(FMEA), 非正常停车, 地铁, 风险评估, 偏好序结构排序法(PROMETHEE)

Abstract: There are presently two problems in the safety risk assessment of subway trains operation systems, which are less consideration of the expert behavior preference and understanding partially the weights of risk factors.Secondly a method of risk assessment based on both PT and FMEA was worked out,consisting of four steps.The ranges of risk factor weights were determined by the expert team based on experience and historical data. A model was built by using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution for the risk factors weight optimization. Thirdly, the evaluation matrix was transformed into the prospect value matrix by the prospect theory. Lastly, the PROMETHEE was used to sort the failure mode risks. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method were verified by the case of assessment of risk that a metro train stops abnormally in a certain city. The results show that the top three of the non normal stopping modes of the metro train are the emergency, foreign body intrusion, people's interference, which conforms with the reality.

Key words: prospect theory(PT), failure modes and effect analysis(FMEA), non-normal parking, metro, risk assessment, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations(PROMETHEE)

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