基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.024

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 150-157.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.024

基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级

陈虎¹, 叶义成^1,2 教授, 王其虎^**1 副教授, 罗斌玉¹, 刘冉¹, 王先华³ 教授级高工

1 武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉 430081
2 湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉 430081
3 中钢集团武汉安全环保研究院有限公司,湖北武汉430081

收稿日期:2018-09-25 修回日期:2018-11-11 发布日期:2020-11-25
通讯作者: ** 王其虎(1987—),男,湖北钟祥人,博士,副教授,主要从事采矿工程和安全工程方面的研究。E-mail:wangqihu@wust.edu.cn。
作者简介:陈虎 (1995—),男,湖北宜昌人,硕士研究生,研究方向为矿山安全技术。E-mail:1468378531@qq.com。
基金资助:
湖北省安全生产监督管理局2017年安全生产专项资金项目(2017HBAQZX(AHY)-2)。

Tailings pond dam break risk classification study based on both ISM and factor frequency method

CHEN Hu¹, YE Yicheng^1,2, WANG Qihu¹, LUO Binyu¹, LIU Ran¹, WANG Xianhua³

1 School of Resource & Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Science & Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430081, China
2 Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan Hubei 430081, China
3 Sinosteel Wuhan Safety and Environmental Protection Research Institute Co., Ltd., Wuhan Hubei 430081, China

Received:2018-09-25 Revised:2018-11-11 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决尾矿库溃坝因素间关联模式干扰其风险评价分级的问题,总结分析国内外尾矿库溃坝事故致因,筛选出导致尾矿库溃坝的16个因素;引入解释结构模型(ISM),构建尾矿库溃坝解释结构模型,理清尾矿库溃坝因素间的层次隶属关系,结合因素频次法和层次分析法(AHP),设计一种不依赖人为主观判断的权重确定方法,计算模型中各因素的权重;依据尾矿库重大危险源辨识与分级标准,构建尾矿库溃坝风险分级方法,并应用该方法确定某尾矿库的溃坝风险级别。结果表明:基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级结果与工程实际情况一致,该方法能够避免因素之间的关联关系对尾矿库溃坝风险分级结果的影响。

关键词: 解释结构模型(ISM), 因素频次法, 风险分级, 层次分析法(AHP), 尾矿库溃坝

Abstract: To solve the problem that the correlative modes between factors causing tailings dam-break interfere with the assessment and classification of the risks, the causes of tailings dam-break accidents at home and abroad were summarized and analyzed. Sixteen factors leading to tailings dam-break were screened out. The ISM was introduced to construct an interpretative structure model for tailings dam-break, and the factors of tailings dam-break were sorted out. Based on the hierarchical membership relationship, combined with the factor frequency method and the AHP, a method of determining the weight independent of subjective judgment was designed to calculate the weight of each factor in the model. According to the criteria of identification and classification of major hazards in tailings reservoir, a risk classification method for tailings dam break was worked out and applied to a certain tailings dam in China. The results show that the risk classification result of the tailings dam based on ISM and the factor frequency method conforms with the reality, and that the method can avoid the influence of the correlation between factors on the risk classification results of tailings dam break.

Key words: interpretive structural model(ISM), factor frequency method, risk classification, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), tailing pond dam-break

中图分类号:

X936

陈虎, 叶义成, 王其虎, 罗斌玉, 刘冉, 王先华. 基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(12): 150-157.

CHEN Hu, YE Yicheng, WANG Qihu, LUO Binyu, LIU Ran, WANG Xianhua. Tailings pond dam break risk classification study based on both ISM and factor frequency method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(12): 150-157.

参考文献

[1] 张媛媛, 杨凯. 尾矿库生命周期溃坝风险演化研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(7): 1-6.
ZHANG Yuanyuan, YANG Kai, Research on evolution of risk of tailings dam-break in lifecycle[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(7): 1-6.
[2] 朱君星, 李彩丽. 不确定型层次分析法在尾矿库安全评价中的应用[J]. 金属矿山, 2010(8): 167-170.
ZHU Junxing, LI Caili. Application of uncertain AHP to the safety assessment of tailing dam[J]. Metal Mine, 2010(8): 167-170.
[3] 袁梅, 张义平, 王作强. 基于层次分析法的尾矿库安全标准化评价系统[J]. 工矿自动化, 2010, 36(1): 52-55.
YUAN Mei, ZHANG Yiping, WANG Zuoqiang. Safety standardization evaluation system of tailing reservoir based on analytical hierarchy process[J]. Industry and Mine Automation, 2010, 36(1): 52-55.
[4] 王英博, 李仲学. 基于AHP的矿山尾矿库安全评价[J]. 辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版, 2011, 30(1): 21-24.
WANG Yingbo, LI Zhongxue. AHP-based mine tailing dam safety assessment[J]. Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science, 2011, 30(1): 21-24.
[5] 杨凯, 吕淑然, 张媛媛. 基于模糊层次分析法的某尾矿库风险综合评价[J]. 工业建筑, 2014, 44(增1): 825-829.
YANG Kai, LYU Shuran, ZHANG Yuanyuan. Synthesized assessment method for tailings reservoir risk based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J]. Industrial Construction, 2014, 44(S1): 825-829.
[6] ZHANG Limao, HUANG Yanhua, WU Xingguo, et al. Risk-based estimate for operational safety in complex projects under uncertainty[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2017, 54: 108-120.
[7] 李全明, 陈仙, 王云海,等. 基于模糊理论的尾矿库溃坝风险评价模型研究[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2008, 4(6): 57-61.
LI Quanming, CHEN Xian, WANG Yunhai,et al.Research on the evaluation model of dam failing risk of tailing reservoir based on fuzzy theory[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2008, 4(6): 57-61.
[8] 陈国定, 姚景新, 洑佳红. 基于堆栈式自编码器的尾矿库安全评价[J]. 浙江工业大学学报, 2015, 43(3): 326-331.
CHEN Guoding, YAO Jingxin, FU Jiahong. Safety evaluation of the tailing pond based on stacked auto-encoder[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology, 2015, 43(3): 326-331.
[9] 谢振华, 陈庆. 尾矿坝监测数据分析的RBF神经网络方法[J]. 金属矿山, 2006(10): 69-70.
XIE Zhenhua, CHEN Qing. RBF neural network method for analyzing monitoring data of tailings dam[J]. Metal Mine, 2006(10): 69-70.
[10] 杨金艳, 蒲生彦, 谢燕华, 等. 尾矿库溃坝风险评价方法的研究进展[J]. 环境污染与防治, 2014, 36(11):84-88, 91.
YANG Jinyan, PU Shengyan, XIE Yanhua, et al. Review of risk evaluation methods on the dam break of tailings reservoir[J]. Environmental Pollution & Control, 2014, 36(11):84-88, 91.
[11] 李全明, 李玲, 张嘎, 等. 尹庄尾矿库动力稳定分析及溃坝风险评价技术研究[J]. 世界地震工程, 2010, 26(增1): 346-351.
LI Quanming, LI Ling, ZHANG Ga, et al. Study on the dynamic stability an analysis and dam collapse risk evaluation of Yinzhuang tailings pond[J]. World Earthquake Engineering, 2010, 26(S1): 346-351.
[12] 王英博, 王琳, 李仲学. 基于HS-BP算法的尾矿库安全评价[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(11): 2 585-2 590.
WANG Yingbo, WANG Lin, LI Zhongxue. Safety evaluation of mine tailings facilities based on HS-BP algorithm[J]. System Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(11): 2 585-2 590.
[13] 张会. 尾矿库溃坝事故风险因素分析[J]. 聊城大学学报:自然科学版, 2014, 27(3): 107-110.
ZHANG Hui. Analysis of risk factors of tailings dam failures[J]. Journal of Liaocheng University:Natural Science Edition, 2014, 27(3):107-110.
[14] 赵林长. 尾矿库溃坝事故危险有害因素分析及对策措施[J]. 黑龙江冶金, 2015, 35(2): 35-36.
ZHAO Linchang. Analysis of risk factors and safety precautions of dam breaking of tailing pond[J]. Heilongjiang Metallurgy, 2015, 35(2): 35-36.
[15] 彭康, 李夕兵, 王世鸣,等. 基于未确知测度模型的尾矿库溃坝风险评价[J]. 中南大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 43(4): 1 447-1 452.
PENG Kang, LI Xibing, WANG Shiming, et al. Optimization model of unascertained measurement for dam-break risk evaluation in tailings dams[J]. Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology, 2012, 43(4): 1 447-1 452.
[16] 杨丽红, 李全明, 程五一,等. 国内外尾矿坝事故主要危险因素的分析研究[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2008, 4(5): 28-31.
YANG Lihong, LI Quanming, CHENG Wuyi, et al. The analysis of main risk factors about tailings dam accidents at home and abroad[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2008, 4(5): 28-31.
[17] 谭钦文, 辛保泉, 许晴,等. 复杂系统事故树“与或门”简易展开模型及应用[J]. 辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版, 2017, 36(6): 586-592.
TAN Qinwen, XIN Baoquan, XU Qing, et al. Simple expansion model and its application of "and or gate" fault tree in complex system[J]. Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science, 2017, 36(6): 586-592.
[18] SCHOENBERGER E. Environmentally sustainable mining: the case of tailings storage facilities[J]. Resources Policy, 2016, 49: 119-128.
[19] CARMO F F D, KAMINO L H Y, JUNIOR R T, et al. Fundão tailings dam failures: the environment tragedy of the largest technological disaster of Brazilian mining in global context[J]. Perspectives in Ecology & Conservation, 2017, 15(3): 145-151.
[20] RICO M, BENITO G, DIEZ-HERREO A. Floods from tailings dam failures[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2008, 154(1/2/3): 79-87.
[21] 陈虎, 叶义成, 王其虎,等. 尖林山采区临近巷道开挖对既有巷道锚杆支护的影响[J]. 金属矿山, 2018(9): 57-62.
CHEN Hu, YE Yicheng, WANG Qihu, et al. Influence of adjacent tunnel excavation on the bolt support of existing tunnel in Jianlinshan mining area[J]. Metal mine, 2018(9): 57-62.
[22] 张舒, 史秀志, 古德生,等. 基于ISM和AHP以及模糊评判的矿山安全管理能力分析与评价[J]. 中南大学学报:自然科学版, 2011, 42(8): 2 406-2 416.
ZHANG Shu, SHI Xiuzhi, GU Desheng, et al. Analysis and evaluation of safety management capability in mine based on ISM and AHP and fuzzy evaluation method[J]. Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology, 2011, 42(8): 2 406-2 416.
[23] LIU Ran, YE Yicheng, HU Nanyan, et al. Classified prediction model of rock burst using rough sets-normal cloud[J]. Neural Computing and Applications, 2018,30(10): 1-9.
[24] 叶义成, 姚囝, 王其虎. 采用区间数排序的采矿方法优选模型及其应用[J]. 控制理论与应用, 2016, 33(8): 1 015-1 022.
YE Yicheng, YAO Nan, WANG Qihu. Mining method optimal selection modeo and its application by using interval numbers ranking method[J]. Control Theory & Applications, 2016, 33(8): 1 015-1 022.
[25] DB13_T2260—2015,尾矿库重大危险源辨识与分级[S].

基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级

Tailings pond dam break risk classification study based on both ISM and factor frequency method

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	熊钰, 孔德中, 杨胜利, 吴桂义, 左宇军, 程占博. 大倾角工作面煤壁稳定性的云模型综合辨识[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(3): 144-151.
[2]	黄杰, 张显峰. 以南疆为例的区域暴恐袭击风险评估^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 192-199.
[3]	李广利, 严一知, 刘文琦, 陈耀光, 吴泽玉. 基于DEMATEL-ISM的矿工不安全情绪形成因子研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(7): 30-37.
[4]	朱高庚, 陈国明, 张玉飞, 盛积良, 袁冠英, 刘健. 风暴灾害下海洋油气工业重大事故演化层次研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(7): 172-179.
[5]	王刚, 商荦真, 刘学麟, 唐礼, 程前. 采用AHP-熵权法的巷道启封中毒窒息致因研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(7): 187-192.
[6]	刘大山, 陈晓春, 多英全, 师立晨. 化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 127-134.
[7]	杨天姿, 王铁骊, 彭恒明, 段海林. 小微企业生产安全事故应急脆弱性评价^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(12): 176-183.
[8]	吴耀男, 林雷, 任新温, 王龙庭, 刘志慧, 刘增凯. 一种基于逻辑结构数的改进型FMEA方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(10): 97-104.
[9]	吴仁彪, 何宇翔, 贾云飞. 基于改进层次分析法的重点人员风险评价方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(10): 112-118.
[10]	姜涛, 张玉龙, 李士博, 李政, 邱海良. 大型多功能救援属具的综合性能评价体系[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(1): 102-108.
[11]	刘常军, 傅鹤林, 翟筱松, 张彦春, 纪张, 谢凤武. 铁路超长隧道安全风险管控及隐患排查治理监管[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 21-26.
[12]	朱冠吉, 刘迪, 孙强, 周子超. 铁路机车驾驶员职业安全适应性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 64-70.
[13]	郑晓波. 基于AHP的铁路信息系统风险评价指标体系[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 139-145.
[14]	周雪, 左忠义, 程伟. 基于组合赋权云模型的铁路旅客运输安全评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 158-164.
[15]	田睿, 孟海东, 陈世江, 王创业, 石磊. RF-AHP-云模型下岩爆烈度分级预测模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(7): 166-172.