关键词: 系统动力学(SD), 跑道侵入, 风控网络, 脆弱性分析, 模糊综合评价, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract: In order to quantify risks of runway intrusion, and to evaluate vulnerability characteristics of core factors in risk control network, a SD model was constructed to systematically study runway intrusion by using vulnerability theory. Firstly, according to incursion cases and expert experience, causal factors were identified, their relevancy degree was analyzed by adopting grey correlation theory, and core control elements were determined. Secondly, interaction mechanism between elements was analyzed, a SD model was established, and dynamic equations were designed by utilizing Bayes theory and comprehensive weight determination method. Finally, vulnerability of runway intrusion risk control network was defined through simulation and analysis, and its resilience was improved through combination strategy analysis. The results show that Bayesian theory and comprehensive weight determination method, combined with historical data, can effectively improve objectivity and accuracy of SD model. Controller's un-timely instructions, increasing rate of communication breaking, fast growth of traffic and reduced regulatory investment are vulnerable points of the network. And risk control strategies, such as intensified training and experience and increasing personnel allocation and equipment update, have obvious substitution on improving network resilience, yet effect of strengthening supervision strategy will be suppressed under large traffic condition.

Key words: system dynamics (SD), runway incursion, risk control network, vulnerability analysis, fuzzy comprehensive appraisal, Bayes theory