燃煤发电安全应急管理评价方法研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.S1.0122

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升煤电应急管理水平,保障煤电行业安全稳定,从应急准备能力、应急预防与预警能力、应急响应能力、应急保障能力和应急恢复能力等方面,建立燃煤电厂应急管理能力评价的指标体系,构建基于熵权的改进模糊综合评价方法,并从系统角度综合评价分析某燃煤电厂安全应急管理能力,提出安全应急管理优化的措施和建议。结果表明:燃煤电厂应急管理能力评价指标影响权重由大到小依次为应急恢复能力(0.269)、应急保障能力 (0.227)、应急准备能力(0.197)、应急预防与预警能力(0.172)和应急响应能力(0.135);模糊综合评价模型能有效分析多因素、多层次复杂问题,可为提升燃煤电厂应急管理评价的客观性和科学性提供依据。

关键词: 熵权, 模糊评价, 指标体系, 燃煤发电, 安全应急管理

Abstract:

To improve the emergency management level of coal-fired power generation and ensure the safety and stability of the coal-fired power industry, an index system for the evaluation of the emergency management ability of coal-fired power plants was established in this paper from the aspects of emergency preparedness ability, emergency prevention and early warning ability, emergency response ability, emergency support ability, and emergency recovery ability. An improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight was constructed, and the safety emergency management ability of a typical coal-fired power plant was evaluated systematically. Finally, measurements and suggestions for optimizing safety emergency management were proposed. The results show that the weight of the evaluation indexes for the emergency management ability of coal-fired power plants taper off as emergency recovery ability (0.269), emergency support ability (0.227), emergency preparedness ability (0.197), emergency prevention and early warning ability (0.172), and emergency response ability (0.135). The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model can effectively solve the difficulty of evaluating complex problems with multiple factors and levels and improve the objectivity and scientificity of emergency management evaluation in coal-fired power plants.

Key words: entropy weight, fuzzy evaluation, index system, coal-fired power generation, safety emergency management

中图分类号:

X948

韩涛, 冯白阳, 乔开文, 余学海, 徐冬. 燃煤发电安全应急管理评价方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(S1): 267-273.

HAN Tao, FENG Baiyang, QIAO Kaiwen, YU Xuehai, XU Dong. Research on safety emergency management evaluation method of coal-fired power generation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(S1): 267-273.

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指标体系		专家1	专家2	专家3	专家4	专家5	专家6	专家7	专家8	专家9	专家10
C₁	C₁₁	4	3	5	4	5	3	5	5	2	3
	C₁₂	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	3	1	4
	C₁₃	4	3	4	4	3	3	2	4	4	1
	C₁₄	4	3	5	5	5	5	3	4	2	5
C₂	C₂₁	3	4	5	5	5	4	3	5	3	4
	C₂₂	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	3	2	1
	C₂₃	3	5	4	4	4	2	2	4	3	5
	C₂₄	4	3	3	3	2	3	4	5	4	2
C₃	C₃₁	4	5	4	4	5	4	3	3	4	3
	C₃₂	4	3	3	4	3	5	3	3	4	4
	C₃₃	4	3	4	4	4	4	3	5	3	2
	C₃₄	4	4	3	3	5	2	5	2	5	2
C₄	C₄₁	4	4	3	3	3	3	4	3	2	3
	C₄₂	3	3	2	3	5	3	5	5	3	1
	C₄₃	4	4	2	2	3	4	3	4	2	5
	C₄₄	4	3	3	2	3	2	4	5	5	2
C₅	C₅₁	3	5	4	2	5	5	3	3	4	3
	C₅₂	4	3	2	3	3	5	3	2	4	1
	C₅₃	3	3	2	5	2	4	3	5	3	1
	C₅₄	3	3	2	4	2	4	2	2	2	4

指标体系		专家1	专家2	专家3	专家4	专家5	专家6	专家7	专家8	专家9	专家10
C₁	C₁₁	0.103	0.077	0.128	0.103	0.128	0.077	0.128	0.128	0.051	0.077
	C₁₂	0.088	0.118	0.118	0.088	0.118	0.118	0.118	0.088	0.029	0.118
	C₁₃	0.125	0.094	0.125	0.125	0.094	0.094	0.063	0.125	0.125	0.031
	C₁₄	0.098	0.073	0.122	0.122	0.122	0.122	0.073	0.098	0.049	0.122
C₂	C₂₁	0.073	0.098	0.122	0.122	0.122	0.098	0.073	0.122	0.073	0.098
	C₂₂	0.100	0.100	0.133	0.133	0.100	0.100	0.133	0.100	0.067	0.033
	C₂₃	0.083	0.139	0.111	0.111	0.111	0.056	0.056	0.111	0.083	0.139
	C₂₄	0.121	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.061	0.091	0.121	0.152	0.121	0.061
C₃	C₃₁	0.103	0.128	0.103	0.103	0.128	0.103	0.077	0.077	0.103	0.077
	C₃₂	0.111	0.083	0.083	0.111	0.083	0.139	0.083	0.083	0.111	0.111
	C₃₃	0.111	0.083	0.111	0.111	0.111	0.111	0.083	0.139	0.083	0.056
	C₃₄	0.114	0.114	0.086	0.086	0.143	0.057	0.143	0.057	0.143	0.057
C₄	C₄₁	0.125	0.125	0.094	0.094	0.094	0.094	0.125	0.094	0.063	0.094
	C₄₂	0.091	0.091	0.061	0.091	0.152	0.091	0.152	0.152	0.091	0.030
	C₄₃	0.121	0.121	0.061	0.061	0.091	0.121	0.091	0.121	0.061	0.152
	C₄₄	0.121	0.091	0.091	0.061	0.091	0.061	0.121	0.152	0.152	0.061
C₅	C₅₁	0.081	0.135	0.108	0.054	0.135	0.135	0.081	0.081	0.108	0.081
	C₅₂	0.133	0.100	0.067	0.100	0.100	0.167	0.100	0.067	0.133	0.033
	C₅₃	0.097	0.097	0.065	0.161	0.065	0.129	0.097	0.161	0.097	0.032
	C₅₄	0.107	0.107	0.071	0.143	0.071	0.143	0.071	0.071	0.071	0.143

评价指标	C₁₁	C₁₂	C₁₃	C₁₄	C₂₁	C₂₂	C₂₃	C₂₄	C₃₁	C₃₂
信息熵	0.984	0.980	0.976	0.985	0.991	0.978	0.982	0.984	0.993	0.993
评价指标	C₃₃	C₃₄	C₄₁	C₄₂	C₄₃	C₄₄	C₅₁	C₅₂	C₅₃	C₅₄
信息熵	0.989	0.973	0.992	0.966	0.979	0.976	0.984	0.969	0.965	0.979

一级指标	C₁		C₂		C₃		C₄		C₅
权重	0.197		0.172		0.135		0.227		0.269
二级指标	C₁₁	C₁₂	C₁₃	C₁₄	C₂₁	C₂₂	C₂₃	C₂₄	C₃₁	C₃₂
权重	0.217	0.261	0.319	0.203	0.138	0.337	0.278	0.246	0.135	0.138
二级指标	C₃₃	C₃₄	C₄₁	C₄₂	C₄₃	C₄₄	C₅₁	C₅₂	C₅₃	C₅₄
权重	0.217	0.510	0.090	0.394	0.239	0.277	0.158	0.299	0.342	0.200

一级指标	一级指标隶属度					评价结果	二级指标					评价结果
C₁	0	0	0.2	0.8	0	良	C₁₁	0	0.1	0.9	0	良
							C₁₂	0	0.4	0.6	0	良
							C₁₃	0	0.2	0.8	0	良
							C₁₄	0	0	0.9	0.1	良
C₂	0	0	0.6	0.4	0	中	C₂₁	0	0	0.9	0.1	良
							C₂₂	0	1	0	0	中
							C₂₃	0	0.4	0.6	0	良
							C₂₄	0	0.7	0.3	0	中
C₃	0	0	0.4	0.6	0	良	C₃₁	0	0.1	0.9	0	良
							C₃₂	0	0.4	0.6	0	良
							C₃₃	0	0.4	0.6	0	良
							C₃₄	0	0.5	0.5	0	良
C₄	0	0	0.7	0.3	0	中	C₄₁	0	0.8	0.2	0	中
							C₄₂	0	0.7	0.3	0	中
							C₄₃	0	0.7	0.3	0	中
							C₄₄	0	0.7	0.3	0	中
C₅	0	0	0.8	0.1	0	中	C₅₁	0	0.3	0.7	0	良
							C₅₂	0	1	0	0	中
							C₅₃	0	0.9	0.1	0	中
							C₅₄	0.2	0.8	0	0	中