Abstract:

To enhance the intelligent level and risk-bearing capacity of three gorges locks, first, SNA was used for stakeholder identification and extraction for Three Gorges lock reservation scheduling. Stakeholder network characteristics were characterized by three centrality indicators: degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. An assessment index system was construct from four dimensions: legality, rationality, feasibility and controllability. Then, based on the potential coupling relationship between the indicators, a BN was used to construct a social risk assessment model for the Three Gorges lock reservation and scheduling mode to quantify the direction and intensity of the role of each indicator. Finally, key factors affecting social stability were identified through a sensitivity analysis. The results show that the social risk level under the scheduling mode of the Three Gorges lock is low. The order of influence of the four first-level indicators on the overall social risk is legality, controllability, feasibility, and rationality. The compliance with rule revision, approval, and issuance, the vulnerability of negative public opinion, the vulnerability of mass incidents, the success rate of appointment, and the coverage of security management strategy are the key factors affecting the overall social risk.

Key words: social network analysis (SNA), Bayesian network (BN), Three Gorges ship lock, scheduled scheduling, social risk assessment, stakeholder