考虑群体差异的公路客运站旅客集聚行为分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.02.007

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 42-50.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.02.007

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇下一篇

考虑群体差异的公路客运站旅客集聚行为分析

左微¹^,²^,³(), 戢晓峰¹^,²^,^**(), 陈方², 覃文文¹^,²

¹ 昆明理工大学交通工程学院, 云南昆明 650504
² 昆明理工大学云南综合交通发展与区域物流管理智库, 云南昆明 650504
³ 柳州职业技术学院财经与物流管理学院, 广西柳州 545006

收稿日期:2021-11-19 修回日期:2022-01-09 出版日期:2022-08-18 发布日期:2022-08-28
通讯作者: 戢晓峰
作者简介:
左微 (1994—),女,广西贺州人,硕士,主要从事物流及交通运输规划方面的研究。E-mail: 1617521384@qq.com。
陈方副教授
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(42061030); 国家自然科学基金资助(52062024)

Analysis on passengers' agglomeration behavior at highway passenger stations considering group difference

ZUO Wei¹^,²^,³(), JI Xiaofeng¹^,²^,^**(), CHEN Fang², QIN Wenwen¹^,²

¹ Faculty of Traffic Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650504, China
² Yunnan Integrated Transport Development and Regional Logistics Management Think Tank, Kunming Yunnan 650504, China
³ Faculty of Finance And Logistics Management, Liuzhou Vocational and Technical College, Liuzhou Guangxi 545006, China

Received:2021-11-19 Revised:2022-01-09 Online:2022-08-18 Published:2022-08-28
Contact: JI Xiaofeng

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为降低客运站高峰期旅客集聚引起的安全隐患,利用公路客运全样本购票数据,首先,从集聚概率、集聚时长、集聚强度3个维度构建旅客集聚行为量化模型,获取工作日、节假日及春运不同等级客运站客流集聚特征;然后,考虑旅客个体属性与出行特征属性,分析不同旅客群体的集聚行为特征;最后,通过差异性检验解析集聚行为的影响因素,并提出降低安全风险的应对策略。结果表明:公路客运站旅客集聚概率服从6项多项式分布,累积集聚概率服从二次函数分布,发车前[10,20]min集聚概率最高;不论出行距离长短,多数旅客候车时间较短,但不同时期,不同等级客运站的客流集聚强度、速度差异显著;一级客运站旅客时空集聚特征显著,二级客运站集聚随机性更强。

关键词: 旅客群体, 公路客运站, 旅客集聚行为, 出行距离, 安全风险

Abstract:

In order to reduce potential safety hazards caused by passenger agglomeration at passenger stations during peak periods, based on full sample ticket purchasing data of highway passenger transport, a quantitative model of agglomeration behavior was established from three aspects, which were agglomeration probability, duration and intensity, and gathering characteristics of passenger flows at different levels of stations during weekdays, holidays and Spring Festival were obtained. Then, considering passengers' individual attributes and travel characteristics, agglomeration behavior characteristics of different groups were analyzed. Finally, a difference test was conducted to analyze influencing factors of such behavior, and countermeasures to reduce security risks were put forward. The results show that probability of passenger agglomeration in highway stations follows distribution of six polynomials, and its cumulative probability follows that of quadratic function, with highest probability of it occurring [10,20]min before departure. Regardless of travel distance, most travelers have a short waiting time, but in different periods, their flow concentration intensity and speed for different levels of passenger stations are significantly different. The spatial and temporal clustering characteristics of the first level stations are significant, while randomness of second level ones is stronger.

Key words: passenger group, highway passenger station, passenger aggregation behavior, travel distance, safety risk

左微, 戢晓峰, 陈方, 覃文文. 考虑群体差异的公路客运站旅客集聚行为分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 42-50.

ZUO Wei, JI Xiaofeng, CHEN Fang, QIN Wenwen. Analysis on passengers' agglomeration behavior at highway passenger stations considering group difference[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(2): 42-50.

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个体属性	购票信息	取票信息	乘车信息	出行路径
身份证信息	购票渠道	取票日期	乘车站名称	线路名称
	购票日期	取票时间	发车日期	到站点
	购票时间	取票时间	发车时间	里程

时期	出行距离/km	样本量	均值	中位数	标准差	偏度	峰度
工作日	[60,100)	121	45.90	43.27	31.07	0.72	0.18
	[100,300)	700	59.47	47.08	49.56	1.44	1.91
	[300,500)	322	40.37	28.93	40.39	2.31	5.87
	[500,800)	45	60.05	45.10	46.50	1.09	0.68
周末	[60,100)	166	46.78	34.90	35.54	1.04	0.30
	[100,300)	887	67.92	53.48	50.78	1.08	0.63
	[300,500)	724	53.09	48.78	34.65	1.72	4.92
	[500,800)	39	76.85	71.78	51.33	0.60	-0.51
节假日	[60,100)	113	41.20	37.00	35.21	2.92	14.24
	[100,300)	687	58.46	46.08	44.62	1.36	1.69
	[300,500)	502	45.90	41.71	34.66	2.41	8.21
	[500,800)	45	80.95	62.28	53.02	0.60	-0.59
春运	[60,100)	115	49.89	40.03	38.01	2.06	6.34
	[100,300)	587	59.28	47.43	44.26	1.15	1.15
	[300,500)	667	87.21	78.20	49.33	0.29	-1.08
	[500,800)	34	100.34	83.38	60.01	0.47	-1.15

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考虑群体差异的公路客运站旅客集聚行为分析

Analysis on passengers' agglomeration behavior at highway passenger stations considering group difference

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