Evolutionary game analysis of dangerous goods transportation in civil aviation under dynamic penalty mechanism: case of airline and ground service agents

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0301

Abstract

Abstract:

In addressing the issues of non-compliance by ground service agents and lax supervision by airlines in the transportation of hazardous materials in civil aviation. Firstly, evolutionary game models between airlines and ground service agents were constructed under both static and dynamic punishment mechanisms. The evolutionary stable strategies under different mechanisms were then explored. Subsequently, a quantitative analysis model was developed by integrating system dynamics to further analyze the interactions between the two parties. Finally, simulations were conducted to analyze the impact of key parameters on the behavioral strategies of both sides. The results reveal that under the static punishment mechanism, no stable equilibrium point is observed in the game system. No evolutionary stable strategy is formed, with the behavioral strategies of both parties showing periodic fluctuations over time. In contrast, when a dynamic punishment mechanism is introduced, a stable equilibrium point emerged in the game system. The behavioral strategies of both parties converge to a stable focal point. Moreover, compared with a low level of punishment, a higher level of punishment is found to be more effective in increasing the probability that ground service agents strictly comply with the agency agreement.

Key words: dynamic penalty mechanism, dangerous goods transportation, evolutionary game, airlines, ground service agents, system dynamics

CLC Number:

X949

SHEN Haibin, HU Ling, LI Na, ZHANG Wenyi, XIE Runqi. Evolutionary game analysis of dangerous goods transportation in civil aviation under dynamic penalty mechanism: case of airline and ground service agents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(5): 23-31.

Figures/Tables 12

Table 1

Revenue matrix for airlines and agents

名称	策略	航司
名称	策略	严格监督管理	宽松监督管理
地面服务代理人	严格执行	$V 1 - C 3 + L 2, R - C 1 + L 1$	$V 1 - C 3, R - C 2$
地面服务代理人	松懈执行	$V 2 - C 4 - P - λ W - S, R - C 1 + P - λ T + L 1$	$V 2 - C 4 - λ W, R - C 2 - λ T$

Table 1

Table 2

Equilibrium points and their determinant and trace expressions

均衡点	行列式/迹	表达式
A₁(0,0)	det(J)	$(V 1 - V 2 - C 3 + C 4 + λ W) (- C 1 + P + C 2 + L 1)$
A₁(0,0)	tr(J)	$(V 1 - V 2 - C 3 + C 4 + λ W) + (- C 1 + P + C 2 + L 1)$
A₂(0,1)	det(J)	$(L 2 + P + S + V 1 - V 2 - C 3 + C 4 + λ W) (C 1 - P - C 2 - L 1)$
A₂(0,1)	tr(J)	$(L 2 + P + S + V 1 - V 2 - C 3 + C 4 + λ W) + (C 1 - P - C 2 - L 1)$
A₃(1,0)	det(J)	$(- V 1 + V 2 + C 3 - C 4 - λ W) (- C 1 + C 2 + L 1)$
A₃(1,0)	tr(J)	$(- V 1 + V 2 + C 3 - C 4 - λ W) + (- C 1 + C 2 + L 1)$
A₄(1,1)	det(J)	$(- L 2 - P - S - V 1 + V 2 + C 3 - C 4 - λ W) (- C 1 + C 2 + L 1)$
A₄(1,1)	tr(J)	$(- L 2 - P - S - V 1 + V 2 + C 3 - C 4 - λ W) + (- C 1 + C 2 + L 1)$
A₅(x^,y^)	det(J)	$(- C 1 + P + C 2 + L 1) (- C 1 + C 2 - L 1) (- V 1 + V 2 + C 3 - C 4 - λ W) · (L + P + S + V 1 - V 2 - C 3 + C 4 + λ W) (L 2 + P + S) 2 P 2$
A₅(x^,y^)	tr(J)	0

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.1

Table 4

Hypothetical values of auxiliary variables 万元

辅助变量	C₁	C₂	L₁	P	R	V₁	V₂	C₃	C₄	W	L₂	S	T	$λ$
参数值	2.5	1	1	1.5	5	7	9	5	3	150	1.5	2	10	0.02

Table 4

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

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均衡点	det(J)	tr(J)	结果
A₁(0,0)	-	±	鞍点
A₂(0,1)	-	±	鞍点
A₃(1,0)	-	±	鞍点
A₄(1,1)	-	±	鞍点
A₅(x^,y^)	-	0	中心点